The First Tee – Rocket Mortgage Classic

This Week

Formerly the Quicken Loans National, the Rocket Mortgage Classic is a new event taking place in Detroit at the Donald Ross-designed Detroit Golf Club (“DGC”). The field this week is weak, but it’s a full-field regular cut event, and given the wide talent disparity the 6/6 percentage should be low if any top chalk misses.

THE COURSE

The DGC has two courses (North and South) but the pros will mostly be playing on the North, with one hole on the South brought into play to make the official scorecard long enough for a Tour event. With all said and done, the course is a par-72 that’s listed at 7340 yards, and it should be an easy time in terms of scoring.

There are some long holes here – four of the par-4s play outside 450 yards, one of the par-5s is a whopping 635(!) yards and the par-3s are split between short (160-170) and long (203-230) – so distance off the tee will help. Pulling driver is fine here, as the course is loosely lined with trees but the fairways are relatively wide when compared to the past few weeks when driver was a scary proposition; there are some tricky fairway bunkers and the rough is thick, but most golfers should feel okay ripping it off the tee.

Given that fact, approach shots should be in the shorter range (50-125 for the longer hitters like DJ, up to 150 yards for the average player) which will be a big help as the greens are about the only defense the course will be putting up this week. Most lies should be straight-forward, as this is a very flat course with rye/bentgrass fairways.

The small poa annua greens have a ton of sloping and undulation and some are two-tiered, so hitting putts will be a challenge especially if short-sided or on the wrong tier.

The factors for success this week will be driving it long and straight, good play with a wedge, and putting. That could really be every player on tour as that’s what makes up a good pro golfer, so looking deeper into success on comp courses, current form, and distance off the tee (since that correlates so strongly to birdie-making) should help break the field down a bit better.

Comparable courses/events:

Other Donald Ross courses should be a good indicator, as his designs tend to be fairly same-y even if grass types/length differ. That would be Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) and East Lake Golf Club (Tour Championship).

TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic) – A birdie-fest course that plays long, has tree-lined fairways and thick rough, and tough greens in terms of undulation/tiering.

Sheshan International (WGC HSBC) – A par-72 with similar par-5s although a couple shorter par-4s, Sheshan’s greens should be similar to what’s seen this week with tricky putts and trouble on missed greens. Short approach shots in as well.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-the-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Approach Shots: 50-125 Yards
• Proximity to the Hole
• Par-5 Scoring
• Three-Putt Avoidance

Top-Tier Golfers

Dustin Johnson ($12000): Given the weakness of the field, DJ will be one of the most popular plays (if not the most popular) this week even as the far-and-away most expensive player in the field. On the season, DJ’s struggled at times due to some horrendous putting – he’s 27^th in SG: Putting on the season but lost strokes at the US and Canadian Opens (his last two events) – but he’s still managed ten top-25s in 14 events played, eight top-10s, and has yet to miss a cut.

Statistically, DJ is worth every bit of his salary:

• 4^th in SG: OTT / 12^th in Distance
• 30 Birdie average / 24.17% BoB%
• 18^th in SG: Approach / 69.86% Greens in Regulation
• 1^st in Scoring Average
• 2^nd in Three-Putt Avoidance / 7^th in SG: Putting

Hideki Matsuyama ($10200): Hideki is the other “clear best player” in this weak field (a case could also be made for Gary Woodland), and as the fourth-most expensive he’ll most likely be chalk as well. His game fits this track very well though, as he’s dynamite with wedges (ninth-best proximity from 50-125 at a meagre 16’8”) and a strong driver of the ball (26^th in SG: OTT).

Hideki is a strong scorer with no weak spots, as he ranks 30^th, 31^st and 23^rd on par-3s, -4s and -5s respectively in BoB% and is 17^th overall by making birdie or better on 24.07% of holes. He manages all that even while being a horrendous putter with one of the worst Three-Putt numbers on tour (193^rd) and by losing 0.79 strokes/round, because the strength of his game from tee to green is so good.

Others: Bubba Watson ($8700), Viktor Hovland ($8400)

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Alex Prugh ($7000): Prugh has been solid over his past two weeks, with finishes of 20 and 21 at the Traveler’s and the US Open respectively, and on the season he’s made eight of 15 cuts. More importantly, Prugh’s been great with the putter and off the tee in those two events and has scored at greater than a 20% clip (31^st and 16^th).

On the season, Prugh’s been pretty ugly around and on the greens (155^th and 172^nd) but is 67^th from tee to green thanks to some phenomenal play off the tee – he’s both long and accurate, and has gained the 21^st-most strokes in that category. He’s hitting greens at a great rate (69.92%, 11^th) although not gaining many strokes with his approach; this is mostly due to being in such strong positions for his approach shot. His value price tag is reflective of his full-season stats, but his recent play is worth much more than that.

Luke List ($7700): He hasn’t been his typical self this season with his irons, but List continues to be a stud off the tee (11^th in SG, 3^rd in distance) and typically performs better on par-72 tracks. Even ranking only 101^st in Approach, List is 38^th from tee to green thanks to that great play from the tee, which should explain just how good he’s been there.

What makes List such an interesting play this week is his absurd scoring rate: 22.77% Birdie or Better percentage on all holes, but 16.8% on par-4s and a massive 54.17% on par-5s. That adds up to a birdie average of 3.94/round, which is impressive for a guy that struggles with the putter (143^rd in SG: Putting). At his price tag, there’s tremendous value here.

Others: Sam Burns ($7100), Sepp Straka ($6900)

 

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!