The First Tee- RBC Heritage

This Week

The week after the Masters is typically an emotional letdown, but the field at the RBC Heritage this year is highlighted with Dustin Johnson and all the DFS darlings (Patrick Cantlay, Ollie Schniederjans, etc); DraftKings has some great GPPs with 100k up top this week, so keep the Augusta train rolling along with the Tour into South Carolina.

THE COURSE

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 listed a little over 7,100 yards, with four par-3s and three par-5s. The Pete Dye-designed course is known for its tight fairways that will take driver out of play off the tee, and the smallest greens on Tour (3,700 sq. ft.). With driver not being a factor, these tight, tree-lined fairways typical to Pete Dye courses are actually hit fairly often (~65%), as a long iron or 3-wood off the tee will make it much easier for golfers to hit their targets.

NOTE: The course was renovated after a hurricane in 2016, so there are ~250 trees removed from the course. It’s still a very tight track.

With the size of the greens being so small, it’ll be important to put a premium on golfers that can get to the green in regulation – last year, only 61.46% of greens were hit. Golfers will have to position themselves off the fairway to line up good approach shots, because the Dye design often gives tough sightlines to the pin even with the ball in the fairway. Missing the greens can be punitive here, as this course continues the Pete Dye trend of having tough bunkers surrounding the greens; they’re not easy up-and-downs, so strong scrambling and bunker play will be required.

The greens here are obviously tough to hit due to the small size but should be receptive. They’re Tifeagle Bermudagrass (re-done in 2015), and don’t feature much undulation. It could be some culture shock for golfers that played Augusta last week, as the stimp is around 11’ (a touch slower than average).

With only three par-5s on the course – two of which are short (502, 549) and reachable in two – that won’t be a focus, but the slow and steady par-4 scorers that keep the ball in the fairway off the tee will be who to look at.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Off-The-Tee
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Greens in Regulation %
• Par-4 Scoring
• Bogey Avoidance
• Birdie or Better %

Top-Tier Golfers

Matt Kuchar ($10800): At a non-birdie fest course, Matt Kuchar’s lack of distance fits him well; in fourteen shots at Harbour Town, Kuchar has picked up five top-10s – including a win – and eight top-25s, and only missed the cut in his first attempt at the course back in 2003. Even more enticing is that his past four years at the course has seen very strong play, with T11, T9, 5^th, and his win. Although Kuchar hadn’t had the most appealing form near the start of the year with a T5 at the Waste Management book-ending four straight made cuts with middling finishes (T62, T26, T58, T40), he’s since picked up a T9 at Match Play, T8 in Houston, and T28 last week at Augusta.

Kuchar’s had a poor year statistically on paper, hitting only 61.32% of fairways and losing 0.109 strokes off the tee when accounting for his poor driving distance. The two things going in his favour however are that Kuch didn’t play in Hawaii or Mexico, so his 290.4 average off the tee looks worse than the rest of the “elites”, and his average distance from the edge of the fairway is 20^th-best on tour; he’s not hitting as many fairways as he normally does, but he’s not missing by much.

As a short course, even without hitting driver the second shots in will be fairly short. From 50-125 yards out this year, Kuchar sits -14 (65 attempts) and leaves an average of 17’9” to the pin (T38), and from 125-150 he’s -11 (53 attempts), leaving 20’4” (T18). He’s also strong out of the sand, and has been excellent on the greens this year. Given his course history he’ll be a popular play, but he has excellent course history for a reason and should be owned.

Brian Harman ($9800): Currently sitting 10^th in Driving Accuracy with a whopping 70.27%, Harman is another great course fit player. Statistically, he rates out extremely well:

• 10^th in Driving Accuracy / 7^th in Distance from Edge of the Fairway
• 22 under par between 50-125 (T8th) on 74 attempts / 18’8” proximity to the pin
• 62^nd in Scrambling
• 5^th in Greens in Regulation
• T10 in Par-4 Birdie or Better % / T11 in Par-4 Scoring (3.97)

Harman has only missed one cut this year – back in January at the Farmers – and is entering the week off a T44 at the Masters with a 69 in his final round. Although he’s missed the cut at Harbour Town three times, the first two misses were in 2004 and 2006, and he had a top-10 finish here last year with a -9. Given his strong form and fantastic ability to get from tee to green without making bogeys, Harman should have a great week.

 

Other golfers to consider: Luke List ($8900), Patrick Cantlay ($9100), Emiliano Grillo ($8600)

 

Value Golfers (below $8000)

William McGirt ($7600): McGirt always plays well on the tight tracks as shown by his T16 at Valspar recently, but even more so by looking at his course history: in his past four attempts, he’s picked up a T3, T9, T31, and T9 – including two rounds of 66. His year on Tour this year has been up and down, with three missed cuts out of eight events, but he knocked out a T33 (Honda), T16 (Valspar) and T26 (API) before missing the cut at the Houston Open.

He fits the style of short, fairly accurate golfer that tends to succeed here, although like Kuchar above his year-to-date driving accuracy has suffered (61.86%). On the plus side, McGirt is -30 between 50-150 yards (152 attempts) and is also an excellent scrambler that’s good out of the sand. He’s been fantastic on par-3s this season – averaging 3.01 and a birdie or better on 15.29% of hole – and continues to be a strong par-4 player. On a course where his lack of distance won’t be a factor, McGirt won’t have to make up too much ground on the par-5s, and he should be a factor into the weekend.

 

Ryan Palmer ($7100): Palmer is a golfer that excels on short second shots, and as an RBC sponsor, finished T11 here last year. The overall picture of his course history isn’t fantastic, but he has made the cut here three straight times and has had decent form for his price tag this season. Although he missed the cut at the Houston Open, Palmer finished T28 the week before at Valspar, another course with tight fairways.

His statistical merit:

• T29 from 50-125 yards (-7 RTP, T61) / T14 from 125-150 (-13 RTP, 3^rd)
• 59^th in Scrambling
• 18^th in Par-4 Birdie or Better (19.57%) / T11 in Par-4 Scoring (3.97)
• 37^th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (0.866)

He’s the one player this week that isn’t a short knocker, as he’s currently 5^th in Driving Distance and only 112^th in Driving Accuracy, but he makes that up with his approach. He should see low ownership and is a very reasonable price tag.

Other values: Si Woo Kim ($7400)

 

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open.