The First Tee – RBC Canadian Open

This is one of the best fields that the Canadian Open has seen in a while, even with a good enough portion of the field coming from Scotland on the heels of the Open. This is most likely the last time the event gets played at Glen Abbey where it’s been played in four of the past five years – 2014 took place in Montreal, so ignore that in looking at course history.

The Course

Glen Abbey is a 7253 yard par-72, with four par-5s between 516- and 558-yards that will be key to scoring this week. There were 69 (nice) eagles made on the four combined par-5s last year, which is a regular amount for Glen Abbey, with 73 made in 2016 and similar numbers in previous years. Two of the par-3s are short holes at below 160 yards, with the other two par-3s kissing the 200-yard mark; three of the par-3s averaged below par last year. The ten par-4s sit between 417- and 485-yards, with half playing below par.

Water will come into play at Glen Abbey, with five of the non-par-3s offering up potential hazards off the tee, and all four of the par-3s offering a (albeit slim) chance to get wet. Beyond that though, Glen Abbey’s only other protection is bunkers and some loosely-lined trees off the fairway, and not much else. With thin rough and average fairway widths, accuracy off the tee isn’t necessary as long as the ball doesn’t end up in a hazard; distance is much more important to finding success here, so looking at bombers is important.

Given that this is a Nicklaus design, a lot of the holes see Nicklaus’ favoured left to right doglegs. Approaching the small greens, golfers will typically be hitting in the 100-150 range (note: if picking longer golfers, trend this range down) and should typically have decent angles onto the greens. With the rough being short and not much undulation in the fairways, approach shots should be relatively easy even as the greens here are small.

The greens should be very firm given the hot summer Oakville has had, but check the weather throughout the week to check on any rain that could soften them up. As mentioned, the greens are small (~5600 sq. ft.) and the greenside bunkers here are very difficult to hit out of, so missing the greens will be costly. If on the green, there’s not a lot of trickery facing golfers; the slightly quick bentgrass doesn’t feature much undulation, and even longer putts tend to drop here.

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Around-the-Green
• Off the Tee

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Approach Shots 100-150 Yards
• Driving Distance
• Par-5 Birdie or Better %
• Greens in Regulation %
• Sand Save % – this isn’t a perfect stat by any means, given the samples are usually smaller and it combines both hitting out of sand as well as putting.

Top-Tier Golfer

There are so many strong options at the top of the list this week, with most of the 9k range qualifying as “bombers”. Not going to write up DJ or Brooks, but they’re both obviously very strong options this week. As far as form goes, golfers that MC at the Open obviously have had longer to adjust coming back from Scotland, but also just missed a cut – I’ll leave it to you to figure out if you want to put importance on that.

Tony Finau ($9800): Not only is Finau one of the longest hitters on Tour at 317.1 (3^rd) / 5^th on All Drives, but he’s also been en fuego with his irons and those combined have helped lead him to some very strong finishes this year: top-10 in all three majors and six top-10s overall, to only three missed cuts in 17 events. He’s yet to miss a cut at Glen Abbey in three attempts, with his best finish coming last year at T5 to go along with a T70 (in a weird year thanks to horrible bunker conditions) and a T22.

Finau is hitting 70.03% of greens in regulation (23^rd) and is a very high scoring golfer, 4^th in par-5 BoB% and 14^th overall, but he’s also averaging 3.99 birdies per round and ranks sixth in holes per eagle. The concern with big Tony is that he’s much better approaching the greens from a distance – especially relative to the field – but he’s still -23 to par between 50-150, and he ranks 41^st in SG: Around the Green for the rare times he does miss the green.

Putting is typically his issue, as he ranks 127^th in SG: Putting and isn’t great inside 10’, but on bentgrass he tends to perform better than all others.

 

Other golfers to consider:

Bubba Watson ($9600)

Pros: Has only missed the cut once in four tries and has a solo second (2015) to go with a T21 and T42, and is having an incredible year with three wins and only three missed cuts. One of the best players on tour off the tee (3^rd) who’s very long, and his proximity is very strong between 50-150 yards.

Cons: Struggles around the green, and ranks horribly out of the sand; with tough bunkers, that’s less-than-ideal. Hasn’t had a great year putting (78^th in SG, 174^th in One-Putt %), and is bad on par-3s.  Inaccurate off the tee, misses the fairway 40% of the time.

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Tom Lovelady ($6800): Coming off a T2 at last week’s Barbasol (shouts to Matt Wiley), Lovelady has been strong this season at courses where distance has a greater impact than on average: a top-30 at CareerBuilder, a T17 at the Honda Classic, and a T5 at Corales are some examples, and he’s made 12 of 20 cuts this season with three top-25s. Lovelady is an excellent DraftKings play if he can make it to the weekend, as he’s hitting birdie or better on 22.37% of holes (27^th) and is remarkably strong on both par-4s and -5s (16^th/18^th respectively.)

Sitting 4^th in Driving Distance / 11^th in All Drive Driving Distance, Lovelady is very long off the tee – without the benefit of playing in Mexico or the Tournament of Champions, which both boost the driving distance a handful – and ranks 30^th in SG: Off the Tee. His accuracy is poor, but with thin rough and only water to worry about, that shouldn’t be as much of an issue this week.

His average proximity from 50-125 is 20’2” which isn’t ideal (157^th), but from 125-150 he’s 24^th, and he’s a combined 35-under from those ranges. His putting isn’t ideal, especially inside 10’, but he’s not bad from outside 15’ which is where he’ll typically be.

 

Seamus Power ($7000)

Pros: Power finished T10 here last year and has only missed one cut in his last six events. He’s very long off the tee – without Hawaii and Mexico – and is a very strong putter, ranking T14 in SG: Putting. Given how strong his putting is, he ranks 6^th in Sand Save/19^th in Scrambling, and he’s a much better par-5 player (46.36% BoB) than on par-3s and -4s, which is another key. He’s relatively strong between 50-125 yards.

Cons: Even with thin rough, the Irishman lacks accuracy off the tee at just 55% of fairways hit (175^th). His SG: Approach is pretty ugly as well, losing 0.358 strokes per round and hitting only 65.16% of greens in regulation. Based on his T10 finish last year, he may get some “sneaky” ownership.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!