The First Tee – Quicken Loans National

This Week

This week’s National takes place at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms (a.k.a. TPC Avenel) and not Congressional, so you can throw out any course history beyond last year’s tournament and a few Web.com events (2012 and 2013); the winning scores here in those two Web events were -8 (Lingmerth) and -7 (M. Putnam), with Kyle Stanley taking the big-boy tournament last year with a score of -7 as well – don’t expect a ton of scoring this week.

With a weak field of only 120, the pricing is “tough” on DraftKings this week, ownership should be all over the board.

The Course

TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms (formerly TPC Avenel) saw some serious renovations in 2006, 2009 and 2015, hosting the aforementioned Web events prior to the latest renovation, as well as hosting the National last summer. Officially listed at 7,104 yards, Potomac is…yet again…another TPC course, and although it wasn’t designed by Pete Dye, it may as well have been; what that means is narrow fairways, a short course, blind tee shots, and lots of undulation on the greens.

Potomac is only a par-70, but because of the lower elevation, you should add ~10-15 yards per hole – it’s essentially the opposite of the high-elevation in Mexico. Both par-5s are tough, sitting at 560- and 619-yards officially, and they averaged 4.927 and 4.859 last year respectively, with only eight combined eagles. The easiest hole on the course is the 299-yard driveable 14^th which is where the bulk of the eagles were made last year (15 of them), and it’s one of three par-4s that sit below 400 yards; all three of them play below par, so it’ll be key to make low numbers on those.

Off the tee, the fairways (that aren’t blind doglegs) will be narrow: an average of 30-yards across at the 275 marker, but only 27-yards across at the 300 marker. That will mean another week where driver should stay in the bag because the bluegrass, almost-fescue-like rough hugs the fairways, and is 2-3” tall.

On approach, the key distance will be 175+ yards, as the elevation needs to be factored in and golfers will have to club down off the tee.; if you add the 10-15 yards to each hole, that would give the course eight par-4s that sit above 450-yards, and with the long distances on the par-5s, mid-to-long irons will have to be used fairly often. Golfers will be hitting into bentgrass (formerly zoysia) greens, with sloping back-to-front and with undulation. Much like last week, holding balls on the greens will be tough, so scrambling will be a factor as greens could be missed quite often; this note pops up every week, but if it’s wet, expect much more scoring and ease on the putting surface – check the weekly email and weather.

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-the-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Bogey Avoidance
• Approach Shots 175+ Yards
• Greens in Regulation %
• Par-4 Birdie or Better / Par-4 Scoring
• Birdie or Better %

Top-Tier Golfer

The name of the game this week will be in ball-striking and iron play, which is what these players have in spades:

Gary Woodland ($8100): Woody hasn’t played at Potomac so there’s no course history to look at, but he tends to play well on the narrow, less-than-driver courses thanks to the natural length advantage he has; he can hit a driving iron (or less) off-the-tee while others pull woods, which will help even out his typically poor driving accuracy (63.57%) to the field.

Gary is one of the best players in the field from 175-200 (13^th in proximity) and outside 200 (20-under par on 91 attempts), and sits T6 in getting to the green in regulation (71.35%). His ball-striking form is fantastic – especially when he hits the fairway – but as always, it will come down to his play around and on the greens. His putter isn’t great on the best weeks, but he’s performed very well on bentgrass greens in the past, and he scores very well thanks to his natural distance.

 

Other golfers to consider:

Francesco Molinari ($10600)

Pros: Incredibly strong from tee-to-green (16^th in SG), and places his tee shots very well. Although his SG: Approach numbers don’t reflect his strong iron play, Molinari is very strong with his mid-to-long irons (29^th from 175-200, 67% of GIR). Fine around the greens.

Cons: Everything when he’s on the greens is disgusting: he ranks 203^rd in SG: Putting, 198^th in One-Putt %, and 185^th in 3-Putt Avoidance. In the same vein as Paul Casey and Adam Scott, Molinari is very up-and-down and is a high-risk/high-reward play thanks to his poor putting. Doesn’t have great birdie numbers thanks to the putting – 3.45/round.

 

Kyle Stanley ($10200)

Pros: Last year’s winner, Stanley is typically much stronger than he’s been this year from tee-to-green, but he’s kept up his great, accurate play off the tee so far this year. Hitting 72% of fairways (3^rd) and 71% of greens in regulation (…also 3^rd…), Stanley has been solid with mid-irons and is very strong on par-4s.

Cons: Normally this is putting, and if you look at just his SG numbers, you’d think he’d solved that; alas, Stanley is still 160^th in 3-Putt Avoidance and 120^th in overall putting average, and has been downright awful on anything outside 10’. Not the best with a wedge in his hand.

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Zac Blair ($7100): The short-hitting Mormon picked up a T29 here last year, and his game typically fits the narrow less-than-driver courses very well, as shown by past successes (relative to his price) at RBC Heritage and other comp. courses. His year on the PGA has been on the up-swing since turning into spring, missing only one cut on the PGA or Web in his last seven events.

Blair is deadly accurate off the tee although he lacks distance, sitting 3^rd in Distance from Edge of the Fairway – even though he’s only hit 63.47% of fairways through 26 measured rounds. He’s gaining .087 strokes on approach per round (91^st) but is very strong with wedges and mid-to-long irons: he’s 17 under par between 50-125 yards out (22^nd) which will help on the short par-4s and 4 under par from 175-200 (19^th). His play around the greens reflects how well he plays with wedges, and his putting is above average.

James Hahn ($7200)

Pros: Very strong on approach relative to his price point, so if he can find the fairway he’ll be in great shape; great proximity when approaching from 175+, and his average approach distance when making birdie is 185.5 yards out. Good on par-3s and -5s, has hit 68% of greens in regulation this year (T53), and finished T46 here last year.

Cons: Struggles with accuracy off the tee – 61.25% – and doesn’t exactly crush the ball. If he misses the green, he’s bad with a wedge in hand, and he’s a bottom-half putter in almost every putting category. Struggles on par-4s relative to -3s and -5s which isn’t great on a par-70 course.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!