The First Tee – OHL Classic by Adam Daly

Last week’s First Tee golfers mostly acquitted themselves nicely – looking at you, Scott Brown – and it was a fun week in Vegas, but now the Tour heads south to Mexico for the OHL Classic. To be clear for Canadians, this is not the Ontario Hockey League Classic but rather a Spanish construction group. The tournament takes place in Mayakoba at the El Camaleon Golf Club.

This Week

THE COURSE

With the course being on the ocean, the winds will play a significant factor in how easy this course plays; although the course is lined with tree, heavy gusts can still impact ball direction. In calm weather this is a birdie-maker’s dream course (two winning scores of -21 in the past five years), but looking at past scores the impact is clear (John Huh’s -13 in 2012 a clear example); this event did move into the swing season where weather should cooperate more back in 2013. It’ll be imperative to check weather this week – FGI members should make sure to check their email Wednesday night – and consider target low ball flight hitters.

The course itself should be a relatively easy one, as its incredibly short and it has larger-than-average greens. Listed at just 6,987 yards as a par-71, this course rewards short, accurate golfers who can hit the fairway. The fairways here are very narrow, and surrounded by hazards: being a coastal course, that means sandy waste areas, jungle trees, and tough bunkers. Off the tee, golfers will typically club down given the shortness of the track, so hitting the fairways is relatively easy (~63% hit).

With the driver typically out of a golfer’s hands, that puts more emphasis on hitting approach shots. Anywhere from 125-175 yards out will be the distances to look at this week, but the greens here are larger than average so most golfers should be able to hit them with ease (~67% GIR) so golfers that can dial in proximity will be key. Said greens are seashore paspalum, which is a very uncommon grass type – but comparable to bentgrass, so to increase a putting sample size, you could realistically combine both seashore and bentgrass stats. There’s a ton of bunkers and dunes around the greens, so scrambling % will be a factor for the rare few that miss the greens.

STATS

No ShotTracker information this week. Of course.

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-The-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Driving Accuracy
• Par-4 Scoring
• Greens in Regulation %
• Bogey Avoidance %
• Scrambling %

The Golfers

Ryan Moore ($8600): The short-hitting Ryan Moore sets up very well in Mayakoba, where he finished T23 in 2014, thanks to his accuracy (17^th in 2017) and approach game (20^th in SG:App). He’s never been a good putter, but on these seashore greens that should all wash out, as he’ll typically put himself in better positions on the green than the competition. His overall proximity rank of 33^rd is solid, but it’s really the shorter distances where he excels – from 50-125 he sits 15^th, and from 125-150 he’s 16^th. He struggles a bit from further out, but on such a short course he should have no problems.

For a short hitter, Moore has been surprisingly good on par-5s – although there are only three of those on this course, it’s imperative to score on them – and although last year was a bit of an aberration in terms of P4 scoring, he’s historically been good on those as well.

Also consider: Chez Reavie, Ryan Armour.

Values (Written before DK pricing released, may not end up value):

Abraham Ancer ($7100): Ancer was dynamite on the Web.com last year, making the cut in 18 of his 24 events and finishing 2^nd three times. He played the OHL Classic the past two seasons, finishing T55 in the ’17 season but missing the cut in ’16. On the Web.com last year, he was below average in terms of driving distance but was a spectacularly accurate golfer in hitting 70.25% of fairways (20^th); in 2017 on this course he hit 80% of fairways and 79% of greens in regulation, and in 2016 in 38 measured rounds he finished 27^th in DA%. The young Oklahoma grad could impress here at low ownership.

Brian Stuard ($7400): Here’s Stuard’s write up from lask week: “Stuard is deadly accurate off the tee (…), sat 5^th in Driving Accuracy last year (71.32%) but didn’t gain strokes off the tee thanks to his short hitting; with an average of only 272 off the tee, it makes sense that his SG: Off the Tee shows poorly. On this track (…) that’ll be mitigated and his play from in tight is very solid (32^nd from 50-125) which will have an impact.”

On a short accuracy track, Stuard is yet again in play and like Moore, his poor putting should be mitigated again.

Other values: Sam Saunders, Kevin Streelman.

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open.