The First Tee – Northern Trust Open by Adam Daly

It’s yet another new course in the rotation this week as the FedEx Cup playoffs kick off with the Northern Trust (formerly the Barclays) taking place at Glen Oaks Club in Old Westbury, New York. The course has only previously held one event, the Met Open in 2016 where the winner shot -4 and the cut was +23 – obviously not played by professionals, but Walker Cup-er Stewart Hagestad was in the field as one of the more recognizable names.

With this being the start of the FedEx Cup playoffs, the field is the top 125 golfers in FedEx points, which makes it one of the strongest non-majors of the year although the European Tour contingent is obviously lacking. Weekly favourites Thomas Pieters and Tommy Fleetwood unfortunately didn’t play enough PGA events to make it.

This Week

THE COURSE

Glen Oaks is a 7346-yard par-70, which makes for a fairly lengthy course as only a par-70; there’s only one reachable par-5 (539 yard 13^th), there are ten par-4s above 440 yards, and the par-5 3^rd is a monster at 625 yards. Longer hitters will have a natural advantage here, because the fairways are wide and should play firm.

From the tees, golfers will have to contend with trees surrounding the course – but they’re fairly spread apart so won’t impede approach shots too heavily. The real concern here will be the bunkers that Glen Oaks is so proud of, because the closely mown fairways will run right into the Augusta-style bunkers that litter the course both off the fairways and around the greens. The rough won’t be too penal, and so mainly off the tee it’s just distance to focus on.

Approaching the greens will be the toughest test on this course, as it’ll usually take mid-irons to reach the greens – with twelve holes beyond 440 yards and two par-3s above 220 yards, the average approach distance will be above 150 (but mostly focus on 175-200). From that distance, golfers will be tested with firm tiered greens that will make the landing spot crucial, and they’ll have to contend with avoiding bunkers. The greens themselves are slightly above average in size, but being fast and firm with tiers will make them play tough this week.

With the tough new bunkers that surround the greens, Strokes Gained: Around the Green will see a small uptick compared to what it normally is. This late in the season, Sand Save percentage can actually be looked at with (generally) enough of a sample size to reflect a player’s true talent for hitting out of the bunker, so that can also be a consideration. As always, scrambling will be incredibly important to avoid bogeys, which will be rated higher than scoring this week on what should be a tough track with scores in the 6-9 range.

Once on the greens, there will be lots of sloping and undulation on the poa/bent grass green. There are some greens that are tiered which will make placing the ball on approach imperative to avoid three-putting (c.c. Zac Blair). Poa greens tend to be easier to read than Bermuda greens, but are also prone to little imperfections that can push a ball off line; one of the interesting things about putting on poa is that it’s the most repeatable type of green, where players that consistently putt poorly will continue to putt poorly, and the same for historically better poa putters. The greens will be firm and fast.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Off-The-Tee
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Bogey Avoidance %
• Greens in Regulation %
• Long Approach (over 175 yards) – this will have to be an amalgamation of the 175-200 and >200 statistics.
• Birdie or Better %
• Driving Distance
• Par-4 Scoring
• Scrambling %

The Golfers

Jason Day ($9700) – Although his early-season results have been mixed, leading Day to drop from 1^st in the world rankings all the way down to 9^th, Day’s past three events have shown him flashing the form that previously made him the best in the world: T27 at the Open, T24 at the WGC Bridgestone, and T9 at the PGA Championship. His overall season numbers will look very ugly relative to his price which is something to keep in mind, but Day was also dealing with his mother’s cancer diagnosis early in the year and did flash his world-class talent a couple times early in the year (T5 and 2^nd at Pebble Beach and Byron Nelson respectively).

When it comes to putting on Poa annua, there are few better than Day, but that’s also because a large part of Day’s skill on the course comes with his overall putting talent. Sitting 47^th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season after finishing 1^st, 6^th, 30^th and 30^th the last four years should reflect just what a bad year he’s had so far, but over his last 24 rounds on firm poa greens, Day is the fourth-best putter in the field. Expect his putting stroke to continue to make strides here, which should help him push his poor FedEx rank closer to the top-30 as the playoffs heat up.

Beyond his struggles with the putter, Day has also struggled from long approach distances this season, but he’s been turning that around and has gained strokes in every event since the Traveler’s. Part of that has come with putting himself in bad spots off the tee: Day only hit 53.34% of fairways this year, which has never been a strong part of his game but on a course with wide fairways he should push that number up and let his putter do the scoring for him. He’s also an ace with a wedge in his hands around the greens, and along with Phil is one of the few golfers in this field where bunkers aren’t a concern.

In a stacked field at an almost-elite price point, Day’s ownership should slip through the cracks a bit and he has winning upside.

Value Picks (Below $7600):

• Seung-Yul Noh ($7100): Noh has been incredibly inconsistent on tour this season, and is coming off two straight missed cuts which will repress his ownership tremendously. Noh is an excellent poa putter (again, this is a repeatable skill) that’s a top-50 golfer on approaches from 150-200 yards. He’s still prone to mistakes which hurts his bogey avoidance numbers, but he’s elite around the green and is priced well enough that a top-25 finish will more than pay him off. From a mental perspective, Noh will need to compete to get through to the next round of the playoffs as he’s currently sitting 100^th in FedEx points.
• Bubba Watson ($7300): Another golfer in the category of “talented but struggling, with flashes of immense talent” to throw in with Jason Day, Bubba actually had his best stretch of the year over the last month and a half before missing the cut at the PGA Championship. There are some flaws in his game that he’s yet to fix (driving accuracy, long approaches), but Bubba absolutely demolishes the ball off the tee which takes long approaches off the table, and he can afford to get a little wild at this course. He’s put up the most DK points in the last 12 rounds at firm poa courses, and if he can get to the greens in regulation he’s also shown to be an excellent putter.

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open.