The First Tee – Northern Trust Open

The Northern Trust is the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, which means it’s a small field – listed at 125, but with some players taking the week off (Rory and Stenson among others), it’s currently only 120 – but there’s still a regular two-day cut. This week takes place at Ridgewood Country Club in New Jersey, which has hosted three times in the past (’08, ’10, ’14).

The Course

Ridgewood is a par-71 listed at 7,319 yards, and won’t be nearly as much of a birdie-fest as the past few events, with previous winners scoring -8, -12 and -14 and the cut coming at +1, E and +1. There are few eagles to be found – slightly more than 10 – with the risk/reward driveable par-4 at 291 yards (typically one of the two easiest holes on the course) seeing the most.

The course is a 27-hole Tillinghast design (also designed Bethpage, Winged Foot and Baltusrol) that got reconstructed by Gil Hanse in the mid-90s, and like most Tillinghast designs it’s a real second shot course where positioning off the tee shot is crucial; the fairways are 30-31 yards across at the 275-300 markers but narrow down to 27 yards across on average beyond that. A lot of golfers will take less than driver off the tee, with the average distance in the past sitting just below 280 yards, which means the naturally longer hitters can club down to woods or driving irons to stay in the fairway.

Missing the fairway can be punitive here, with 3” rough and typically one of the toughest to hit out of with an average proximity to the pin in the 44-46’ range. Beyond that, the positioning for approach shots is key as mentioned above; missing the green is very punitive with all the bunkers around the greens, which are deep and tough to get out of, so there’s a much bigger emphasis on play around the green than a regular week.

If the ball hits the green, golfers will be faced with relatively quick poa/bent greens that feature lots of sloping and undulation. Only 85-86% of putts inside 10’ are made here, which makes that range one of the toughest on Tour – 16^th-hardest last year, but 10^th– and 8^th-toughest in 2010 and 2008. Targeting usually strong putters makes a lot more sense this week than on a normal week – consider avoiding the usual Luke List types.

 

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Around the Green
• Off the Tee

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Par-4 Birdie or Better %
• Approach Shots 125-150 Yards
• Putting Inside 10’
• Scrambling
• Distance from Edge of the Fairway / Driving Accuracy

Top-Tier Golfer

Tiger Woods ($10100): Any course where Tiger doesn’t have to pull out the big stick is enticing, as his driving accuracy is an awful 55.43%, but he’s been much stronger when he pulls a driving iron; for a course where play off the tee is so muted, his ranking of 134^th can be safely ignored.

He’s only had one appearance here, back in 2010 when he finished T12 at -7, but coming off a great showing at the PGA Championship has shown just how good Tiger can be.

Statistically, he rates out so well at Ridgewood:

• 11^th SG: T2G – which, considering how bad his OTT is, speaks to how strong he’s been everywhere else
• 29-under par from 125-150 yards out (3^rd) / proximity of 20’9” (25^th)
• 9^th SG: Around the Green / 26^th in Scrambling
• 27^th SG: Putting, 19^th in One-Putt percentage
  • Note: his putting inside 10’ has been poor this year, but that’s thanks to about 3 events where he struggled more than a 20+ handicap
• 11^th Par-4 Birdie or Better %, 18^th Birdie or Better % overall

He’ll most likely be chalky this week as everyone is still excited over his PGA performance, but he’s chalk worth eating.

 

Other golfers to consider:

Dustin Johnson ($11500)

Pros: Elite, elite, elite. Leads the PGA in birdie or better % and par-4 and -5 scoring, and SG: T2G. He’s 28-under par between 125-150 yards out (2^nd) and 35-under par below 125 yards, and ranks 8^th in SG: Approach. Only has 15 three-putts on the year (1^st).

Cons: Cost is prohibitive as always. Missed the cut here back in ’08 but finished T9 in 2010, DNP in 2014. Not great if he ends up in the sand – his proximity out of the sand ranks T86, but his average is only 3’ longer than the best proximity; it’s tough to come up with cons beyond cost with DJ. His advantage OTT is mitigated slightly thanks to more of a focus on approach.

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Austin Cook ($6800): The rookie hasn’t played this course before, but at only $6800 he offers tremendous value and is a stud on the greens. He’s lost strokes on approach which is always a concern, but Cook’s short play off the tee won’t be a factor this week, and he should be able to hit the green often enough this week to let his putter make some noise.

He’s 22-under par between 125-150 yards, sits 9^th on Tour putting inside 10’ with a whopping 55.56% of putts made, and has an overall birdie or better percentage of 21.64%. The other area he excels is play around the greens, where he ranks 39^th in SG: ARG and 34^th in Scrambling – although the scrambling number is boosted a bit by his putting.

Cook hasn’t missed a cut since the Travelers at the end of June, and has #BabyNewsSwag with the recent news that he and his wife are having a baby boy.

William McGirt ($6500)

Pros: His price leaves a lot of viable options with high-priced players, and his form has been fairly strong recently: four straight made cuts including a top-10 and a T12 finish, but more importantly this type of course fits his game perfectly – as shown by his T5 here in 2014. Strong both on and around the greens – 49^th in SG: Putting and SG: ARG – he’s never been much of a big scorer, but he avoids bogeys and is strong on both par-3s and -4s.

Cons: His play off the tee is suboptimal, both in distance and driving accuracy – he ranks 173^rd in SG: OTT and only hits 60.06% of fairways. He’s a short hitter which means on a soft course he’ll have tougher irons into the greens, and he’ll struggle to keep up on the longer par-5s.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!