The First Tee – Memorial Tournament

Memorial takes place at the House that Jack Built, Muirfield Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio, and it’s one of the most stacked fields for a non-major/WGC event. The top of the field is littered with studs – DJ, JT, Rory, Tiger, Day, and the list goes on – that has made for some relatively soft pricing for DFS this week, in the same vein as a major. Much like last week, this is another Invitational event, which means a smaller field overall (~120) which will put stars & scrubs into play.

The Course

Muirfield is a par-72 that’s listed at 7,392 yards, and last year averaged 0.797 strokes above par; the real test at Muirfield will be the four par-3s, which sit between 184-201 yards and typically all four holes will average above par – in fact, two of the four last year were in the top-50 toughest holes on Tour (12 and 16.) 16 features water in front and was the hardest hole on the course last year, with the 12^th and the 4^th – another par-3 – sitting at 3^rd– and 4^th-toughest respectively. Avoiding big numbers on the -3s will be a key, but on the whole the winners here tend to be consistently good par-4 scorers, so any focus on the par-3s should be more on Par-3 Scoring than on Par-3 Birdie or Better %.

As a whole, this course tends to play fairly tough, with the winning score in the past five years sitting between -9 (Tiger Woods) and -15 (David Lingmerth, William McGirt). Last year especially was a tough one, with only 35 eagles (including one ace) and 1408 birdies, and the cut coming at +4; historically the cut sits between -1 and +1.

The four par-5s here are very simple distances – the easiest par-5 is also the second-longest at just 563 yards, with the longest just four yards more – and it’s imperative to walk away with a circle or better, especially on the 7^th and 15^th.

Although the fairways here are wider than last week’s test at Colonial, it’s not exactly a bomber’s course: the average fairway width is 31 yards across at the 300-yard marker, but they quickly narrow beyond that; the fattest part of the fairway is a good long iron or 5-wood away, with the optimal tee shot placed around 275 yards out. There are lots of doglegs at Muirfield, which means laying up for proper position is again more important than distance or even finding the fairway – the first cut of rough here is reasonably short so a ball that rests in the first cut with a better angle in is better than dead centre of the fairway, but it’s imperative to miss the thick cuts beyond that. Either way, with golfers dialing back and not hitting driver here, most fairways should still be hit.

There is water on a handful of holes here and the trees are loosely-lined with trees, but it’s a relatively simplistic course in terms of hazards to avoid. There are lots of well-placed fairway bunkers and creeks that run through the course though.

The bentgrass greens at Muirfield are small (~5000 sq. ft. on average) and very fast and firm, around 13’ on the stimpmeter. With lots of undulation and how firm the greens are, it’s tough to hold greens. If a golfer does manage to get to the green in regulation, the putting is relatively simplistic, but the way the greens are built it will be tough to get the ball close to the hole for birdie putts.

 

Scrambling will be a big factor this week as in years past at Memorial; on a bogey avoidance track such as a Muirfield, especially one with small greens, being able to save par goes a long way towards finish position. In fact, scrambling % correlates much higher to finish position at this course than the majority of courses on Tour.

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Around the Green
• Off-the-Tee

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Bogey Avoidance
• Greens in Regulation %
• Scrambling %
• Approach Shots 150-200 Yards
• Par-4 Birdie or Better %

Top-Tier Golfer

Henrik Stenson ($9200): Iceman sets up very well this week, with Muirfield being a less-than-driver course off the tee: Stenson is a deadly accurate golfer from the tees but has always struggled when he has to pull driver, and this year leads the field in Driving Accuracy (76.80%) and sits 26^th in Distance from the Edge of the Fairway; he’ll be able to pull his trusty 3-wood out of the bag this week without losing too much distance to the field.

One of the factors that will keep ownership off Stenson this week will be his relatively miserable course history, especially relative to his high price point – Stenson has zero top-25s in four efforts here, missing the cut once and picking up finishes of T41/46/60. On the other hand, Stenson hasn’t played the course since 2013 and is night-and-day better now than he was five long years ago.

Statistically, Stenson is lights out:

• 1^st in SG: Approach
• 2^nd and 6^th respectively on approaches between 150-175 and 175-200
• 1^st in Greens in Regulation (74.24)
• 1^st in Bogey Avoidance (9.85%, a full 2.2% better than 2^nd place)
• 8^th in Par-4 Birdie or Better % / 1^st in Par-4 Scoring (3.90)
• 1^st in Scrambling % (only 32 missed greens though, so small sample size…he’s 152^nd in SG: Around the Greens)

As well, Stenson scores very strongly even though he seems to have a reputation of a par-maker compared to the big guns like DJ, JT, etc. The Iceman is averaging 4.14 birdies per round and picking up a birdie or better on 23.23% of his holes so far this year. With expected lower ownership, the only things holding him back are his course history and inconsistent putting – easy to ignore when his game from tee-to-green is as strong as it is.

 

Other golfers to consider:

Jason Day ($11100)

Pros: 10^th in Bogey Avoidance, the Aussie that calls Ohio home finished T15 here last year, his sixth made cut in nine events. Elite player around and on the greens (3^rd SG: ARG, 1^st SG: Putting), and scores very well on par-4s. If he can make it on the green, there’s no one better.

Cons: Last year’s T15 was his sole top-25 finish at Muirfield, and his price is exorbitant. His approach game has been in tatters all season (ranks 153^rd) and his ranks from 150-200 are both poor (200^th/187^th). Tough to score from off the green.

Tiger Woods ($9400)

Pros: Has FIVE wins here and eight top-10s overall. Keeping driver in his bag is good for Tiger, as he can let his approach game shine from the fairways. Currently 7^th in SG: Approach and has been nails when he misses the greens.

Cons: A large part of his SG: Approach numbers come from getting himself out of trouble from off the fairway in ways the rest of the tour can’t. Only hitting 64% of greens in regulation and isn’t scoring at a rate commensurate with his price tag; his putter has been weak recently.

Marc Leishman ($9000)

Pros: Was fantastic at the Byron Nelson two weeks ago, and has strong history here with eight made cuts in nine tries with three of those finishes coming in the top-25 – more importantly, the three most recent times at this course were top-15 finishes. Very strong on everything after the tee shot: 26^th Approach, 15^th Around the Green, 67^th Putting. Makes his money on par-4s. -17 on shots between 150-200 yards. Big-time scorer.

Cons: Everything about his game off the tee is …tough: only hitting 58% of fairways, 111^th in distance from the edge, and averaging 292 on all drives. Horrible on putts outside 15’.

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Kevin Streelman ($7000): His last three events haven’t been much to look at, with a finish of 76^th last week after two straight missed cuts, but Streelman has overall had a great year so far and has performed well on bentgrass greens (albeit in Texas); after picking up four top-25s in the swing season, Streelman has since added three top-10 finishes in 2018 with good fields.

• 3^rd in Bogey Avoidance (12.29%)
• 25^th in SG: Off the Tee / 18^th in Driving Accuracy (68.3%)
• 5^th in Greens in Regulation (71.38%)
• 23^rd in SG: Tee to Green
• 14^th in Scrambling
• 12^th in Par-4 Scoring

The reasons why Streelman’s price is as low as it is are definitely sound, as he definitely has some fairly apparent issues: he struggles in a big way with the putter, and because of that he struggles to score. Typically the recommendation for DFS purposes is a number-maker, someone that will match their bogeys with birdies, but at Muirfield and the low scores, Streelman should still be in play especially at this price point.

Although he’s missed the cut here four times in nine tries, his past three years have found finishes of T13/T8/T18, and he finished T7 back in 2011.

Russell Knox ($7300)

Pros: His last four rounds have all been in the 60s (Fort Worth and Byron Nelson), and he currently ranks 25^th in Bogey Avoidance. His short hitting off the tee sets up well here, and he’s very accurate with his placement for his approach shot. Has good proximity overall and from 150-175, and hits a ton of greens (70.52%, 12^th). Strong on par-4s.

Cons: He’s been a poor putter this season as he’s wont to be (178^th), and his best finish here is T18 – the others were in the 60s and a missed cut. Struggles with longer irons (11 over par from 175-200 this year on 124 attempts), and struggles to score on par-5s thanks to his overall lack of distance. Not exactly a big scoring golfer.

William McGirt ($7100)

Pros: Past winner here (2016) that’s only missed one cut in five tries. Although his overall proximity between 150-175 yards doesn’t look great, McGirt is -15 in 134 attempts. 20^th in Scrambling, and very good at avoiding three-putts (14^th) although not great at getting them to drop for birdies. Great on par-3s.

Cons: Until last week with a T32, hadn’t shown much of anything – six missed cuts in sixteen events, only four top-25s. For a short hitter he still struggles with accuracy off the tee (61.01%), and he’s actually losing strokes from the tees. Again, not a big-time birdie-maker.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!