The First Tee – Mayakoba Golf Classic

This Week

After a week off to finish the Asian portion of the swing season, the tour is back in North America this week for the Mayakoba Golf Classic (formerly OHL Classic), at the El Camaleon Golf Club in Mexico. This event historically has one of the worst fields of the year outside of alternate events (it’s comparable to the RSM Classic or Safeway Open) as most elite golfers take a month off after the WGC HSBC.

Another week without ShotLink – the real issue with the fall swing if you ask me – means another week where the info is sparser than it normally is.

The Course

Listed as a short par-71 (6987 yards), El Camaleon has some incredibly easy holes (the par-5s play at -0.4 or easier on average) but there are still some tricky spots here and the weather can have a big impact. Winning scores here have been as bad as -13 (Wilson, Huh) and as good as Matt Kuchar’s -22 last year; most years the cut will come below par, but if the wind blows it’s been as high as +4.

The wind is such a big factor here because El Camaleon is a coastal course that sits directly on the ocean, so it’s wide open to the elements even with trees lining the fairways. Weather splits could be a big factor ahead of tee-off, so make sure to check the FGI email Wednesday nights or go to windfinder.com.

Tee shots will be hit into the narrow tree-lined fairways, but because of the short distance of the course, golfers can club down to driving irons or woods – especially in poor weather – and also keep their apex points lower. This course typically sees some of the lowest driving distance on tour, ranking between the 2^nd-lowest to (2016) to 15^th-lowest over the past five years, but usually sees 65+% of fairways hit; any errant tee shots could end up in waste areas, fairway bunkers or the aforementioned trees.

The focus on approach shots should be in the 125-150 yard range, as the course is so short but so many golfers keep driver in the bag; the greens here are actually quite easy to hit (70.14% last year, no lower than 66% over the past five years) so sticking it close will be key. Missed greens are death sentences here, as scores can go so slow and any bogeys are very bad news – there are also some tough dunes surrounding the greens, and a ton of greenside bunkers.

Putting will be done the seashore paspalum greens, which is a very uncommon grass type for the PGA but is comparable to a bentgrass and plays slow here. Historically the putting has been very easy at El Camaleon, with the overall putting average usually in the 1.55 to 1.65 range (about 9^th-easiest, on average) every year. Above 40% of putts made are one-putts, and three-putts almost never happen here; poor putters can find success here, so don’t be afraid to use players like Luke List.

Comparable courses/events:

TPC Stadium (Desert Classic) – Very similar scoring at this course – one of the three played at the Desert Classic – and both courses are short with narrow fairways that play as less-than-driver courses. Lots of sand is another shared feature, although the Dye-designed TPC course has Bermuda grass and is a par-72.

TPC Summerlin (Shriners Open) – Comparable greens – the TPC track is bentgrass but very similar architecture and speeds – and overall set-up to par make these two a fair comparison. Both are par-71 and (when accounting for altitude) have similar overall yardages.

 

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Around the Green
• Putting

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Approach Shots : 125-150 Yards
• Scrambling %
• Driving Accuracy %
• Par-4 Scoring

 

Top-Tier Golfers

Viktor Hovland ($11200): Hovland missed the cut here last year as an amateur but remains one of the most impressive young golfers on tour, with no missed cuts as a professional and three finishes of top-10 in his debut season.

As always with Hovland, the caveat of small sample size exists since his stats only come in fairly weak fields and he only has 29 measured rounds, but luckily every stat available is either a small sample (2020 season) or using last year’s data, and this field is about as weak as they come! His stats that reflect good course fit:

• 1^st in GIR%
• 1^st in Par-4 Scoring
• 3^rd in Driving Accuracy %
• 6^th in overall Birdie or Better %
• 7^th in Approaches: 125-150 Yards

Hovland is a deadly accurate player off the tee and is dialed-in with his irons – his overall proximity to the hole was the best at 30’1”, so his ranking of seventh from 125-150 is actually a bit of a step down. His play around the green has been a struggle as has his putter, but with his good approach game and the easy-to-hit greens, he shouldn’t be scrambling out of trouble too often; his poor putter is nullified a bit by the paspalum greens, as mentioned in the course notes.

Russell Knox ($9300): Sure to be extremely chalky thanks to his relatively low salary and incredible course history – Knox has finishes of 9, 3, 2 from 2015-2017 and three other finishes in the 30s – and his perfect course fit; Knox also has some fine form entering the week, making five out of six cuts since the swing season started (including European Tour) which includes three finishes of T28 or better.

Knox has always been a short knocker – perfect for El Camaleon – who finds fairways (although 2018-19 was a relative struggle at 65.9%) and uses an above-average approach game to get to the green. Last year, Knox was 18^th in SG: Approach while hitting 69.06% of greens in regulation, and he had the seventh-best proximity to the hole. He’s normally better with his wedges, so that’s a small knock on him (he ranked T136 from 125-150).

He’s not without his warts even at this price point, as Knox struggles with his putter (142^nd in SG: Putting / 150^th in putting average) which really hurts his birdie or better numbers; Knox last year ranked a dismal 129^th in overall BoB% but was a stud at bogey avoidance. Like Hovland, Knox’ poor putting should be neutralized here.

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Si Woo Kim ($7400): Si Woo has some fine history here, with three finishes of 26^th or better in four tries (including a third!), with the fourth being a WD; he hasn’t missed a cut since the Open Championship all the way back in July and his form seems to be recovered from his horrible string of missed cuts last year (10 misses in 11 events from April to August).

That horrible string will obviously affect his statistics from last year but he finished the year strong enough to make him a real consideration. One of the areas where Si Woo wasn’t affected by that poor string was on approach, where he ranked a horrific 143^rd – but that was actually an improvement over 2018 and 2017. Si Woo’s never been a great statistical player with his irons, but he always gets the job done from a scoring perspective thanks to accurate play off the tee, great wedges, and being a dominant player with fairway woods.

It’s the scoring numbers that really make Si Woo a good play for DFS this week, as even taking into account his 88^th SG: Tee to Green, he was still 47^th in P4 BoB%, 19^th in P5 BoB%, and 26^th in overall BoB%. This course doesn’t exactly set up for his game, but it will neutralize his poor putting, and there’s truly no streakier player than Si Woo so if he finishes the first round well he’ll be sniffing the top of the board come Sunday.

Xinjun Zhang ($7300): The Chinese golfer was a stud on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, with two wins, a runner-up and two thirds and only three missed cuts (and one WD). He’s continued that through the swing season, grabbing a T7 at the Safeway and a T4 at the Houston Open to go along with three other made cuts to just one miss.

In the 18 measured rounds Zhang has played this season, he’s got phenomenal tee to green numbers (21^st) and he’s scored very well – 39^th so far with birdie or better on 25.76% of holes, really excelling on the par-3s and -4s. He has a birdie average of 4.64 which is obviously inflated thanks to the ease of the swing season.

Zhang is good around the green (39^th) and although 74^th in GIR% doesn’t exactly jump off the page, he hit 72.4% of greens in regulation which is a great raw number. He’s good at positioning himself off the tee most of the time but can get a little loose at times – he hit something other than fairway/rough 4% of the time, which means hazards/trees/sand traps. His good scoring and low price point combined with the weak field should mean he cruises through to the weekend.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!