The First Tee – Houston Open

Can almost smell the azaleas with how close Augusta is…just one more week, everyone. The last tournament leading up to the Masters takes place this week, as the Tour runs through Humble, Texas for the Shell Houston Open. It’s got a stronger field than normal this year, and the myth that golfers will WD to focus on Augusta tends to be overblown – only three WDs in the past five years were headed to the Masters.

THE COURSE

A good course as a run-up for Augusta, the Golf Club of Houston is a relatively long par-72 designed by Rees Jones. It’ll be a touch easier than Augusta of course, but the winners typically sit between -12 and -20 after all is said and done; since 2012, the cut has only been below Even twice (-1 in 2012 and -3 in 2015).

For a tournament that sees more than its share of birdies, there aren’t many eagles made – only 14 total last year, the bulk coming on the par-5 8^th. Those will go a long way in helping both in terms of finish position and DraftKings scoring, but that’ll be tough to gauge heading into the tournament; only 264 attempts were made to get to the green in two last year, with only 55 ultimately being successful (out of 437 approach shots, so just 12.5%).

Of the ten par-4s on the course, four sit below 400 yards (although two of those are just under at 397- and 398-yards) with five of the other six between 441-489 yards. That means a lot of the approach shots will be coming outside 175-yards, as the fairways here tend to be very narrow (32-yards across at the 250 and 275-yard marks, narrowing beyond that); targeting golfers with strong mid-iron play is a key at the GC of Houston.

As mentioned, with the narrow fairways off the tee, golfers tend to hold back a touch and try to keep tee shots in the 280-range – that means longer hitters like Tony Finau can reasonably pull woods to try and keep it in the fairway, while the shorter hitters will still have to hit driver. There aren’t too many trees to contend with, but golfers have to be careful to avoid water hazards, as this course is littered with them. One key note here is that the rough is cut low, so missing the fairway isn’t incredibly punitive (unless the ball ends up wet), but it’s more about being able to position the ball properly for the approach. The off-the-tee play here matters more than most weeks, so that’ll be a focus.

On approach, golfers will be looking at slightly above-average sized greens, that play very quickly. Although the greens are Bermuda, they’re heavily over-seeded with bent and rye to try and emulate what golfers will see next week at Augusta. The greens are firm (weather dependent – if it rains, they’ll obviously soften up) and although they’re relatively easy to hit when compared to other courses, it’ll be tough to control proximity with so many golfers having to pull mid-irons on approach. The greens are also fairly flat around the pin, so birdies will be plentiful from 10’ and in. The greenside bunkers aren’t too punitive but they can be rather large, and mostly front the greens so any shots short of the green could find the beach.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Par-5 Scoring
• Approach: Outside 175 Yards
• Greens in Regulation
• Par-3 Scoring

Top-Tier Golfers

Luke List ($9600): Consistently one of the best on Tour from tee to green, List is sure to be a popular pick on DraftKings this year, as he’s having a strong year and his putter is only losing a marginal amount of strokes (-0.051) when compared to years past (-0.426, -0.273 in the previous two years). List finished T3 here last year in shooting -16 over his four rounds and finished T27 in 2016; he did miss the cut with a 77-72 back in 2013, but that’s ancient history for List.

This season, List has only missed three cuts (OHL, Sony Open, CareerBuilder) while picking up a whopping seven top-25 finishes in his 14 events. His highlight was losing in a playoff at the Honda Classic, and his next two stroke play events saw finishes of T16 (Valspar) and T7 (the Arnold Palmer Invitational.) For a player that excels off the tee, it’s no surprise that he’s performed well on some of the tighter tracks on Tour this season.

With his distance (3^rd, 11^th SG: OTT) and strong control with his irons (49^th SG: APP), List has had an easy time of scoring this year which is always a strong consideration at birdie courses: List sits 21^st in birdie average (4.13/round), 26^th in Birdie or Better % (23.17%), and his average approach distance when making a birdie or better is 189.2 yards – great for this course. His putter remains the biggest question mark.

Henrik Stensons ($): Although Stenson missed the cut here last year, he’s had a pretty stellar history with two runner-ups and a T3 to go along with two middling finishes of T54 and T21. His game fits this course so well thanks to his penchant for leaving the driver in the bag and pulling woods out off the tee; although he’s only played six measured rounds, Stenson has gained 0.492 strokes off the tee and has hit 78.26% of fairways – which includes the Valspar where he missed the cut, and API where he finished 4^th.

On the European side, Stenson’s played three times and picked up two top-10s (T6 in Dubai, 8^th in Abu Dhabi), so his form is fine as he heads into the week looking to gear up for the first major.

 

Other golfers to consider: Russell Henley ($9200) – immaculate course history even if the YTD stats don’t appeal, Charles Howell III ($8900)

 

Value Golfers (below $8000)

J.B. Holmes ($7300): Another golfer that missed the cut here last year but has strong course history beyond that (prior to 2017 his last MC here was in 2007), Holmes is another longer hitter that can dial it back off the tee to put himself in great spots for second shots. Holmes proved that in his win in 2015, which is the highlight of his history here that also includes a runner-up, T8, T12, and T42.

Beyond his 4^th-place finish at Torrey Pines, Holmes has had an average year on Tour so far: two missed cuts in seven events, and his best finish away from Torrey was a T41 at Bay Hill. Statistically, Holmes looks about the same as he always does, which means strong off the tee, bad on the greens, and mediocre on approach. His 102^nd-ranked SG: Approach doesn’t jump off the page, but he’s managed to still gain strokes (0.54 to be precise) which is a step ahead of the past five years, 2015 excluded.

Holmes won’t be highlighted in many places this week as this is more of a course fit play than a stats-based play, so he should come in at low-ownership.

Chris Kirk ($7500): Entering the week after a 13^th-place finish at Bay Hill, Kirk is very underpriced for this tournament considering his excellent form this year: three finishes of 13^th or better, three finishes between T33 and T49, and his two missed cuts both came at 54-hole cut events. Kirk is underpriced thanks to not having played this tournament since 2014 (T65), but he’s yet to miss a cut in three shots at it, and also has a T22 and a runner-up finish(!) in 2013 and 2011 respectively.

Kirk has never been a long hitter so he’ll need to take driver out (282.5 distance on all drives), but he’s T55 in Distance from Edge of the Fairway, and his approach game makes up for the lack of power off the tee. Statistically, Kirk is:

• 22^nd in SG: Approach
• 34^th in SG: Tee to Green
• T47 in Proximity to the Hole
• 34^th in Approach Shots Outside 200-Yards (26-under par in 108 attempts)

He struggles with the putter which explains his poor BoB%, but like List he’ll give himself enough opportunities to get to the green that he should more than pay off his price.

 

Other values: Sean O’Hair ($7200)

 

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open.