The First Tee – Honda Classic

This Week

If you’re one of the degenerates at the DFS Open, enjoy the week! The Honda Classic is a regular tour stop, with a full field and the normal 36-hole cut.

THE COURSE

The Honda Classic is hosted at PGA National in Florida, which is a par-70 course that plays at 7,140 yards. The course plays fairly long with five of the par-4s playing outside 450 yards, and only having the two par-5s; par-4 scoring is obviously important due to the fact that it’s a par-70, and the par-3s here are nightmarish in terms of toughness. Bogey avoidance is a big factor to consider here, because winning scores are typically low (sitting between -6 and -12 most years) and the cut coming above par.

Part of the reason the course – originally designed by Tom Fazio but touched up by Jack Nicklaus – plays so hard is the very narrow fairways, which average around 25 yards across. Water comes into play all over the course (14 holes), the rough is very thick, and the 67 bunkers at the course can be very tough, so those are obviously also large factors in seeing bogeys here.

Tee shots tend to be clubbed down given the narrowness of the fairways, which is part of why the average distance off the tee here tends to be among the shortest on tour (~272 yards on average which is a bottom-5 distance). That means longer hitters will have an advantage here, because they’ll be able to club down to irons and still manage to stay in the short grass hopefully. The other factor on tee shots is that the course is fairly open to the elements, so if wind picks up, tee shots will be very tough.

Approach shots should typically come in the 175+ yard range, and will be hitting into greens that are just a touch over average size, and will continue to be firm due to the 2018 re-grassing (it takes a couple years to soften). The greens are Bermuda, and have a ton of contouring and false fronts, but are actually quite easy; birdies aren’t converted at any great rate, but the greens are pure and three-putting is rare.

Comparable courses/events:

Colonial (Charles Schwab Challenge) – Super narrow fairways, wildly-undulating Bermuda greens, and being a par-70 are just some of the similarities between the two courses, but both also play quite tough – last year, Colonial was the seventh-hardest course on Tour and PGA National was the fifth-toughest. Par-4 scoring and bogey avoidance are key at both tracks.

TPC Sawgrass (The PLAYERS) – Although PGA National is longer than Sawgrass (which is appx. the same yardage but a par-72), they’re very similar in terms of tee shots – short distance, typically with irons – and both courses feature a ton of water as well as very similar Bermuda greens.

 

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Bogey Avoidance
• Par-4 Scoring
• Approach Shots: 175-200 Yards, 200+ Yards
• Driving Accuracy / Distance from the Center of the Fairway
• Par-3 Scoring

 

Top-Tier Golfers

Daniel Berger ($8900)

Form: Berger’s been flying under the radar but has been having a great start to a comeback year, not missing a cut in 2020 yet and after opening T38 (Sony) and T29 (Amex), Berger finished with back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Phoenix Open (T9) and Pebble Beach (T5). This comes after only one top-10 finish last year (at the Puerto Rico Open), so his current form is a great sign.

History & Comp. History: At the two comp. courses, Berger’s picked up a T53 and MC (Colonial), and a MC-T9-T65-T57-T67 at Sawgrass. While neither are very appealing, Berger’s history at PGA National pops out a bit more as he’s finished solo second here (2015) as well as grabbing a T29 and T36. He’s missed the cut twice at this event so it’s not perfect, which could keep his ownership lower.

Stats (2019): 2019 was not very kind to Berger, who ranked a brutal 109^th in SG: Approach and 68^th Tee to Green a year after ranking 15^th and 53^rd in those two categories respectively. He was fine from a distance, but Berger couldn’t figure out how to hit short irons – which luckily doesn’t matter that much here, given the layups off the tee. Even in a year where he struggled though, Berger’s bread and butter was par-4s, which is perfect for a par-70 course.

L16 Stats: Berger’s numbers relative to the field really stand out, as he ranks fourth in bogeys made (1.813/round), 20^th in doubles (0.125) and 43^rd in birdies (3.938). Berger’s been deadly accurate off the tee, ninth-best in the field in hitting 70.87% of fairways, which is a great sign for playing at PGA National given the narrow fairways. He’s hitting the 27^th-most greens in regulation, has gained the sixth-most strokes from tee to green (!!) and isn’t losing strokes putting.

 

Gary Woodland ($10300)

Form: Coming off a T12 in the WGC Mexico Championship, Woodland’s been fine at the no-cut events recently – he finished T7 at the Tourney of Champions and had success in the Hero, Zozo and CJ Cup with finishes of 1, 5, 3 respectively. Unfortunately, he missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open and only managed a T40 at the Phoenix Open.

History & Comp. History: Not only has Woodland never missed a cut here (seven attempts), but he’s finished second (2017) and T6 (2011), and T49 and T36 the past two years. He’s only played Colonial once (2012) and MDF’ed, and he’s had middling success at TPC Sawgrass: four made cuts to four missed cuts, but three of his made cuts were finishes of T11, T28 and T30.

Stats (2019): Gary was a legitimate star in 2019, ranking 16^th in SG: Tee to Green thanks to strong play off the tee (19^th) and on approach (20^th); he did rank a dismal 107^th in SG: Around the Green and 130^th in SG: Putting, which isn’t ideal. For more relevant stats to this week, Woodland led the tour in approach shots outside 200 yards last year (T18 from 175-200), averaged below par on the par-4s (3.99, T23), and picked up birdies at a great rate (25%, third-best). He finished the year 93^rd in bogey avoidance which isn’t great, but a large part of that was down to putting which shouldn’t be an issue here.

L16 Stats:  Woody’s been a tremendous ball-striker over his past 16 rounds, sitting 11^th in the field by gaining 0.409 strokes/round. His putter has been (relatively) good as well, sitting 32^nd in the field; that strong putting could regress at any point given Woodland’s not usually a strong putter, but given the pure Bermuda greens, he should be okay this week. Woody is 18^th in birdies made and 24^th in bogeys made, but has made his fair sure of double-or-worse (84^th) which can be murder at this course.

Honourable mention: Jon Rahm ($11300)

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Harry Higgs ($7300)

Form: Since 2020 turned over, Higgs finished T57 at the Sony Open and missed the cut at the Amex, but since then he’s picked up three tremendous finishes: T9 at the Farmers, T25 in Phoenix, and T18 at the Pebble Beach pro-am. Seven of the 12 rounds he played at those three events were in the 60s.

History & Comp. History: Higgs has no history here, or at either of the comp. courses due to his rookie status.

Stats (2019): Higgs was on the Korn Ferry Tour last year so there’s nothing to look at from 2019, but his 2020 stats have been pretty strong: he’s 41^st in overall proximity to the hole, 52^nd in driving accuracy, 18^th in Par-4 Birdie or Better %/T3 in Par-4 Scoring, and has gained strokes from tee to green (+0.301/rd) which ranks 87^th.

L16 Stats: Higgs has been on fire over his last 16 rounds – which didn’t exactly come at easy courses – as he’s picked up 4.18 birdies/round (21^st) to only 1.93 bogeys (8^th) and 0.063 doubles (4^th). He ranks sixth in SG: Off the Tee and 31^st in SG: Tee to Green, and while his putting has been strong (20^th), his ball-striking shows a ton of potential here. He’s the 32^nd-most accurate off the tee (66%) and has hit the 17^th-most greens in regulation (70.13%).

Maverick McNealy ($7500)

Form: McNealy’s form since 2020 turned over is even better than Higgs’, as he’s made four straight cuts – ten straight now, going back to Sanderson Farms back in September – and has finished no worse than T37 (at the Amex). He’s picked up a T5 at Pebble Beach to go along with a solo 15 at the Farmers, and a T27 last week at the alternate event Puerto Rico Open.

History & Comp. History: McNealy’s played Colonial once (2018) where he finished T42, but has no history at PGA National and TPC Sawgrass.

Stats (2019): Like Higgs, Mav was on the Korn Ferry last year, so his stats will be from 2020 in lieu of 2019. The stats…are not pretty, to put it mildly: 165^th in SG: Approach, 115^th from Tee to Green, and he’s been propped up by the 21^st-most strokes gained putting. The positives though are that McNealy excels when driver stays in the bag, and he’s above-average on approach shots outside 175 yards; he’s averaging 3.95 on par-4s (T22) and picks up birdie or better on 25.25% of holes, but even better is 35^th in Bogey Avoidance.

L16 Stats: Over his past 16, McNealy is getting the green at a strong clip (68.4%, 35^th) and leads the field this week in bogey avoidance (1.43/rd). His scoring has remained above-average, getting 4.063 birdies/round (32^nd), and he’s 46^th in SG: Ball-Striking. His short game is propping him up – eighth in SG: Around the Green – but his iron play not losing strokes is about all McNealy needs to do to retain value.

Honourable mention: Talor Gooch ($7200)

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!