The First Tee – Honda Classic

This Week

It’s a regular week in terms of the cut and field this week, although the strength of the field this week is much worse than in years past thanks to the changes to the schedule.

THE COURSE

The Honda Classic takes place at PGA National in Palm Beach, Florida, which is a par-70 course that plays at 7,140 yards. It’s a Fazio design originally that was re-done by Nicklaus in the early 90s, and is known as a ball-striker’s course with a famous three-hole stretch (“the Bear Trap”.) Scores historically are fairly low, in the -6 to -13 range over the past decade, and the cut typically below par.

For a par-70, this course is fairly long, with five of the par-4s at 450 yards or above, although three of the par-4s play below 400 yards and the two par-5s are very easy relative to the rest of the course – usually the two easiest holes, last year they saw six combined eagles and played -0.14 and -0.19 to par. Par-4 performance will be important given this is a par-70, although avoiding bogey on the par-3s goes a long way as well: the 190-yard 17^th (part of the Bear Trap) is usually the hardest hole on the course.

The fairways here are very narrow, with most golfers having to club down from driver to make sure they stay in the fairway. Once past 275 yards, the fairways are frighteningly small at ~25 yards across on average, which is why tee shots are most years are among the shortest on tour: 3^rd, 5^th, 7^th, 4^th and 3^rd-shortest over the past five years, around 271 yards off the tee on average. Most golfers will choose that route, as about 60% of fairways get hit here, which is about average.

Missing the fairways is an absolute no-no here, as the rough is thick and penal, and there are water hazards and bunkers everywhere – 14 holes with water and 67 bunkers, specifically. For as narrow as the fairways are, they’re very open to the elements (a crucial part of the Nicklaus changes), so it’s imperative to check winds as they’ll have as much impact this week as they would at a coastal course.

The greens were re-grassed in 2018, and like the fairways are Bermuda – a big change from the last few weeks of kikuyu fairways and poa greens. Because they were recently re-grassed, they’ll be very firm which is counter to most year, which will most likely make this week tougher than normal. The greens are about average in size but have a ton of contouring and false fronts, and are surrounded by fairly easy greenside bunkers and in some cases water.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Approach Shots: 175+ Yards
• Birdie or Better %
• Par-4 Scoring
• Bogey Avoidance
• Driving Accuracy
• Proximity to the Hole

Top-Tier Golfers

Gary Woodland ($9800): In 22 measured rounds this year, Woodland has hit the 4^th-most greens in regulation, ranks 5^th in SG: Off the Tee and 7^th in SG: Tee to Green, and is dynamite outside 175 yards: 25 under par (124 attempts) with an average birdie distance of 200.2 yards. He’s a big-time birdie maker and should easily pay off his price point.

Sergio Garcia ($10300): Sergio’s never missed a cut here (8/8) and has two top-10s including a runner-up finish, and is having a strong year from a form perspective: a T7, T3 and DQ (lol) on the European Tour, and a T37 and T6 in North America; because he’s only played eight rounds, I won’t go into the statistical merits, but over his career Sergio has very strong on long approaches, a good putter, and very strong off the tee.

Emiliano Grillo ($8,900): Sure to come in at marginal ownership off a horrendous week in Mexico, Grillo sits 5^th in SG: Approach this season / 30^th SG: T2G, and is very strong on par-3s and -4s – although this year his par-4 performance has suffered with awful putting. Grillo’s regressed to his 2017 putting levels recently, losing almost a full stroke a round, but he’s back on Bermuda greens where he’s typically much better. He finished T8 here last year and has never missed a cut here.

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Joaquin Niemann ($7600): The new forgotten toy of the DFS world has been okay in his debut year, sitting 45^th in SG: T2G with good play off the tee (34^th) and on approach (39^th). He hasn’t been scoring very well relative to the field, but he’s missed some of the easier events and is still at 21.18% BoB. He’s better with a wedge than his longer irons which is the main concern, but he thrives on Bermuda.

Michael Thompson ($8000): Not technically “below” $8000, but Thompson has the 9^th-most strokes gained on approach this season, and has been fairly accurate off the tee (38^th) which makes up for his lack of distance. He’s 26^th relative to par on approach shots outside 200 yards, is an above-average putter, and has been great this season on par-3s and above-average on par-4s and -5s. He’s a past winner here and has made five of seven cuts at this course.

Talor Gooch ($7600): He missed the cut in his only time out at this course last year but has been a different golfer in the 2019 season – although that’s only 15 measured rounds – who sits 17^th(!) in SG: Tee to Green. He’s very inaccurate off the tee so it’s imperative he clubs down and gives up some of his distance, but Gooch has the 6^th-best SG: Approach number and like Thompson is an above-average putter. 10^th best relative to par on approach shots outside 200, 15^th in BoB%, he’s a great value this week.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!