The First Tee – Honda Classic

After Bubba Watson took apart Riviera on his way to his tenth (AND FINAL?!) win, the Tour is on to Florida for the Honda Classic at the Jack Nicklaus-(re)designed course, PGA National (Champion). It’s another strong field this week in terms of EuroTour players as well as the regular stars of the PGA, with Tiger playing back-to-back weeks as another highlight.

THE COURSE

PGA National is commonly known as a ball-striker’s course, sitting at 7140 yards as a par-70. The two par-5s on the course are very scoreable, playing last year at -0.494 (538-yard 3^rd) and -0.390 (556-yard 18^th), with 31 combined eagles between the two. Beyond those two holes, this is a rather difficult course to score on, with only four par-4s averaging below par and all of the par-3s at +0.1 or harder. The famous stretch of holes here is the “Bear Trap”, the 15^th, 16^th and 17^th, a stretch of two par-3s sandwiching a 434-yard par-4; this is actually not the toughest three-hole stretch, with the 5^th, 6^th and 7^th averaging slightly tougher (also a par-3, -4, -3).

With this being a rather difficult course, scores historically have been low; since 2012, winners have scored -12 (Fowler, McIlroy), -9 (Thompson, Scott), -8 (Henley), and -6 (Harrington), with the cuts typically +1 unless the wind really picks up when it can drop to +4 or +5.

The fairways here are narrow: the front nine fairway widths average out to just 24 yards across outside of 275 yards, with the back nine being slightly easier to hit if clubbing down – outside of 275, they go from an average of 31 yards down to 25. While not every hole plays to exactly that width-by-yardage metric, 12 of the 14 do.

Missing the tight fairways will be costly here, with the rough being thick and penal. Beyond the thick hack’n’slash rough, there’s water hazards and well-placed bunkers to contend with, as well as a smattering of palm trees that (unless super unlucky) won’t be much of a factor beyond changing the approach angles. With such a penalty for hitting the thick stuff, most golfers tend to club down to a long iron or wood, which explains the low average driving distance from prior years. Even then, it’s still a struggle to hit fairways. Nicklaus’ re-design in 1990 really opened the course up to be impacted by winds, so weather is a major consideration this week.

On approach, assuming a clean ball, golfers will be hitting into average-sized greens that are no easy task; the Bermuda greens have false fronts, lots of contouring that can run the ball off if hit into the wrong spot, but aren’t particularly firm. Missing the green offers a few tough outs: the typically-large greenside bunkers would be the best-case scenario, as they’re not nearly as steep as what was seen last week at Riviera, and they’re better than the alternative of the thick fescue that sits in front of water hazards (which would be the worst-case scenario).

Other considerations for the week: The typical distance needed on approach will be above 150 yards, with most golfers opting to take a bit off the tee. The other factor would be golfers that just spent four days playing bumpy poa annua greens at Riviera adjusting to the grainy Bermuda – obviously the practice rounds will help, but notoriously bad putters should be avoided here and that’s doubly in effect if they played last week.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Bogey Avoidance
• Proximity to the Hole from the Rough
• Birdie or Better %
• Greens in Regulation
• Approach: Outside 150 yards (this is a rather big spread)
• Launch Angle (lower the better) – this isn’t something to target per se, but it’s a good way to separate between two close-to-equal golfers

The Golfers

Russell Knox ($9000): Knox enters the week with an elevated price tag that will most likely cause him to be ignored by DFS players this week, as his price tag got a definite “course history” bump; Knox has finishes of T2 and T3 to go with a T26, before missing the cut last year. He also seems to have re-found his strong play after a middling 2017, with a top-10 at the Sony Open and a top-15 at Pebble Beach, only missing one cut (at the WMPO).

In his 20 measured rounds this season, Knox has picked his game back up from where it was just a year ago:

• 29^th in SG: Tee to Green
• 14^th in Distance from Edge of the Fairway (gives a better idea of play off the tee than Driving Accuracy)
• 6^th in Greens in Regulation
• 45^th in Birdie or Better %, 25^th in Par-4 Birdie or Better %

Henley is strong on long approaches, but has struggled the few times he’s hit the rough. Luckily, he’s so accurate off the tee that the expectation will be that he barely touches the thick stuff. Knox has always been a poor putter, but even an average week with the flat stick will have him pushing for contention.

 

Alternate top-tier options:

Patrick Reed ($9100) – After not playing the tournament last year and missing the cut in 2016, Reed may slip through the cracks this week, in that $9000 range around players like Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrell Hatton and Gary Woodland. Reed’s other three cracks at this course were fairly strong though, T7 (2015), T24 (2014), and T58 (2013). Reed’s approach game so far this season has taken a big step up from where it was this time last year, which was the main reason for his poor 2017 season, and he continues to be a top player in terms of both putting and overall play from tee-to-green.

The main factor that puts Reed ahead of his competition is his long approach game, and his par-4 scoring ability (19.59% BoB).

Also consider: Tommy Fleetwood ($9500)

Values (Below $8000)

Russell Henley ($7700): Henley is a past winner here that is nails with his flat stick on Bermuda greens, although he hasn’t stood out too much here beyond his 2014 win. His other finishes include one missed cut (2016), but finished T13, T44, and T43 in his three other efforts. His year to date has seen mixed results as well, missing both at the Sony Open and the WMPO, but he’s entering the week off a T15 at Pebble Beach where he shot a -9.

Because he lacks measured rounds from 2018, some statistical highlights from Henley’s 2017 season:

• 55^th SG: Tee to Green
• 42^nd in Distance from Edge of the Fairway
• 30^th in Greens in Regulation
• 24^th in Par-4 Birdie or Better %

Henley’s also better on approach from further out, which is important when the tee shots stay short.

Other values:

Bud Cauley ($7800): Cauley’s been an excellent value play this season, with two top-10 finishes (RSM Classic and Safeway Open), and only one missed cut at the WMPO in eight events played. He’s only played this course three times in his career, missing the cut in both 2012 and 2013, but finishing T27 last year. Cauley is typically strong on approach outside 150 yards – and excellent hacking it out of the rough – and his poor length with the driver (relative) is mitigated by that club mostly staying in everyone else’s bag as well. He’s strong on approach and from tee-to-green, has a strong putter (0.478SG:P, but that’s only in eight measured rounds), and is middle-of-the-pack in terms of birdie or better percentage.

Scott Piercy ($7300): With middling success at this course in the past – two missed cuts, but a T5, T31, T56 were his other efforts – but strong form to open his 2018 season, Piercy is another strong value play. In his seven events in 2018, he’s picked up four top-25 finishes with only one missed cut (also the WMPO). Piercy is nails on approach (currently 8^th in SG:App), better from farther out, and although his putter sucks he’s an excellent scoring golfer: T28 in par-4 BoB%, and T33 in par-5 BoB, 29^th overall (23.93%). On a course with few birdie holes, his scoring acumen could make up finishing points that other golfers accrue.

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open.