The First Tee – Greenbrier Classic

With just two PGA weeks left before the Open at Carnoustie, the upcoming fields aren’t the most enticing – especially this week, as the best the Greenbrier (or by its awful official title, a Military Tribute at the Greenbrier) has to offer is Lefty, Bubba, and…Webb Simpson? Tony Finau? It’s a tough week, which means the golfers that typically offer value are priced up a touch compared to most other events.

The Course

It’s another TPC week, with the Greenbrier taking place at the perfectly-named “The Old White TPC” in West Virginia. When it first jumped onto the Tour rotation, Stuart Appleby shot a 59 and the winning score was -22, so the course got lengthened and renovated to be a touch harder; since then, the winning score has rested in the -10 to -16 range, with no tournament in 2016 thanks to flooding, and it’s been a birdie-fest just not the same degree as the first iteration. If using course history, feel free to throw 2010 out.

Like last week at TPC Potomac, this is yet another par-70 with a number of short holes – seven of the par-4s sit below 450-yards, including two under 400-yards – and two very easy par-5s. The back-nine at this course has the three easiest of the 18, with both par-5s and the 385-yard 10^th; combined, those three holes saw 17 eagles last year and had a birdie or better percentage of 35.16%. Overall, the course plays at 7,286 yards with an average length of 404, and an average score just below par (-0.008).

The fairways at Old White TPC are wider than most TPC courses, with an average width of 34-yards across at the 300-yard marker, and 35-across at the 325-yard marker; golfers will either have to hit it long off the tee (320+) or keep it short (250-275) to get the widest areas of the course, which means the bombers should have a large advantage this week as they can pull driver or hit controlled iron shots to better position themselves for the approach shot. There isn’t much concern with hazards on the tee shot, with water barely coming into play – just three potential hazards – and less trees than in the past thanks to the flooding, and no harsh doglegs.

On approach, golfers will be taking short irons out often, with the 50-125 distance accounting for 20% of shots taken, but proximity from that range has had the largest correlation to success. With the wide fairways, golfers will have a better opportunity to set themselves up for the proper angled shot – hence why this is such a birdie-fest – and will be hitting into slow, bentgrass greens. Balls should hold well here, as the greens feature some undulation and sloping but not enough to throw balls off the green; weather could be a factor here though, as enough heat will dry the course out and make it tougher to hold the greens in the afternoon…check the weather Wednesday night for any possible impacts.

 

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-the-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Par-4 Birdie or Better %
• Approach Shots 50-125 Yards (note: dispersions will vary for the style of hitter you’re looking at, adjust approach distance down if looking at a longer hitter, and up if looking at a much shorter hitter).
• Greens in Regulation %
• Putting Inside 10’
• Carry Distance

Top-Tier Golfer

Webb Simpson ($10700): Webb made it onto the First Tee last year as a write-up and ended up finishing T14 – which pairs nicely with a 3^rd, T7, T9 and T41 along with two missed cuts – and given how strong his putter is, the sky is the limit for him this week. Not only does Webb have a strong history here, but he’s also having a great year: a win at the PLAYERS, a T5 at RBC Heritage, a T5 at the Honda Classic, and a T4 at the Sony Open are the real highlights, but he’s also only missed three cuts in sixteen events. Statistically, Webb checks most boxes:

• 39^th SG: T2G
• 32^nd SG: Approach / 66% of greens in regulation
• 8^th SG: Putting / 5^th Inside 10’
• 54^th in P4 Birdie or Better (17.43%) / T17 in P4 Scoring (4.00)
• 29-under par from 50-125 (14^th) / average proximity of 16’5” (5^th)

While his play off the tee has been the only thing holding him back so far – Webb is a shorter player that only hits 61% of fairways – on a course of this size and with fairways this wide, I’m expecting him to close the talent gap in other ways, specifically on and around the greens.

 

Other golfers to consider:

Bubba Watson ($11,000)

Pros: Has yet to miss a cut in four tries at this course, including two finishes of T16 or better. Sits third in SG: OTT thanks to his great distance off the tee, and has hit 71% of greens in regulation (7^th). Has the distance to score on a relatively short course, and ranks 30^th and 24^th in par-4 and -5 BoB% respectively. Bubba has been en fuego this year on his way to three wins, so his form is top-notch.

Cons: His driving accuracy leaves something to be desired at 59.21%, although on a course with wider fairways it may not be that impactful. His SG: Approach numbers don’t reflect how good he is with his irons, but Bubba tends to show his talent with his mid-irons as opposed to wedges; his average approach when he makes birdie is 190 yards out, he’s only 9-under par from 50-125 (T143), and his numbers around the green are…not great (183^rd in SG: ARG).

 

Ryan Moore ($8900)

Pros: A par-4 stud (T13, 3.99 average) that is deadly accurate off the tee, Moore will need to hit longer approach shots than most, but he’s so solid at putting himself in the right positions that he sits 16^th in SG: Tee to Green. He’s great with a wedge in hand, so he’ll have a leg up on the shorter holes, and missed greens won’t be a problem for him – his bogey avoidance is elite.

Cons: Has zero course history here, which will make for a tough read on how he handles the course (although it will also suppress ownership, which is a good thing). Atrocious putter and short off the tee, Moore doesn’t tend to score well, which isn’t a great sign for a birdie-fest track and for DFS in general.

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Brandon Harkins ($7100): Coming off three straight mid-30 finishes, Harkins has been scoring tremendously well – an overall BoB% of 23.05%, good for 14^th! – and while his numbers on the whole don’t jump out, he’s a great value play for DFS purposes. Harkins is 96^th in SG: T2G, but that’s with losing strokes around the green; at Old White TPC, that won’t be as much of a factor as some of the tougher courses Harkins has played this season. He’s a longer hitter off the tee that’s much better with a wedge or short iron in hand (combined 39 under par from 50-150) but also has the distance to score eagles here.

Keith Mitchell ($7500)

Pros: Absolute masher off the tee, Mitchell ranks 8^th in SG: OTT thanks to his big hitting – he still can’t hit a fairway, but that should get sorted on a course with wider fairways. Because he’s so long he should have an advantage, and his birdie or better numbers on both par-4s and -5s are fantastic (18% and 51% respectively).

Cons: Coming off a missed cut at a course he hasn’t played before is always a tester, but it will kill any possible ownership. Struggles on approach – ranks 185^th in SG: App, but has hit 67% of GIR – and definitely struggles within 10’ on the greens. He’s a high-risk/high-reward pick this week.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!