The First Tee – Fort Worth Invitational

Although the name has changed from last year’s horrible “Dean & DeLuca Invitational” to the Fort Worth Invitational, most people know this week as just Colonial. After last week’s field highlighted almost exclusively by Jordan Spieth, this week will see Jon Rahm, Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler pop back into the picture along with Spieth and other fun names.

With this week being an Invitational, the field is only around 125 golfers. That means a higher percentage of the field making it through the cut, which makes focusing on volatile low-ownership golfers a little less-risky than in most weeks; this would be the recommended strategy for multi-entering, but for cash or single entry it’s imperative to get a 6/6 so make sure your lineup builds fit your game selection.

The Course

The Fort Worth Invitational takes place at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, and plays as a par-70 listed at 7,209 yards. The course has 12 par-4s to four par-3s and two par-5s; the first par-5 is a short one (565 yards) that’s imperative to score on with a scoring average last year of -0.394 (two eagles), while the 11^th is a tougher test at a whopping 635 yards and a scoring average of -0.115 (also with two eagles). Although there were more eagles on the par-5s the previous year (eight combined), the scoring average has been fairly consistent over the years.

Scoring on the par-4s will be the key as there are twelve of them on course, and nine of those sit below 450 yards. The approach distance to target will thus be below 150-yards, even as most golfers will leave the driver in the bag off the tee.

The reason golfers will stay away from using the driver is just how narrow the fairways are at this Bredemus/Maxwell-designed course: on average, the width at 275-yards from the tee is just 26 yards across, with the average increasing just a touch to 27 yards across at the 300-yard marker. Beyond just the narrow fairways, Colonial is a course designed to maximize the impact of the wind, which means paying special attention to the weather (use windfinder and the weekly FGI email for last minute updates) will be necessary.

Last year, the average distance off the tee from all drives was just 279.8 yards, which made it the 12^th-shortest course, and only 54% of fairways were hit with most tee shots ending up on the left side (19%, 3^rd-most on Tour); with all the doglegs on the par-4s, don’t spend too much time worrying about hit fairways, as the approach positioning is a lot like last week at Trinity Forest – tee shots can still be fine with the ball off the fairway, as it can make for an easier path in.

Golfers will need as easy as a path to the greens as possible, as the bentgrass greens are some of the smallest on Tour at 4,400 sq. ft on average. There’s lots of multi-tiering and undulation as well, and the misses can really hurt: four of the holes have water in front or on the side of the greens. The greenside bunkers aren’t especially penal so there shouldn’t be a focus on scrambling, but the greens should be firm and quick which means focus on historically strong putters or strong recent putting performers in like conditions.

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-The-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Bogey Avoidance
• Greens in Regulation %
• Par-4 Birdie or Better %
• Approach Shots Below 150-yards
• Putting Outside 10’

Top-Tier Golfer

Jon Rahm ($11000): The Spicy Spaniard finished T2 here last year with a -9 – no rounds above par – but that was his sole trip to Colonial. He broke the typical mould in terms of how he found success here, as Rahm was aggressive off the tee through all four days – leading in Driving Distance – and he consistently left himself short irons and wedges in. Showing that he can continue to play his style regardless of how the course sets up bodes well for Rahm this week, as he’s shown this season that he’s no fluke: he’s had two wins on the season (CareerBuilder and Open de Espana over on the Euro Tour), has only missed one cut which came at the team play event in Zurich, and has finished in the top-10 40% of the time if you don’t include the team event.

Statistically, he’s right on form with where he has been in the past:

• 1^st in Driving Distance (all drives) / 2^nd in SG: Off the Tee
• 23^rd in Greens in Regulation even as his SG: Approach rank seems awful (119^th)
• 18 under par between 50-125 yards out (74 attempts), good for 17^th
• Ranked between 33-49^th in putting from 10-15’, 15’-20, and 20-25’, but 7^th in Putting Average
• 2^nd in P4 Birdie or Better % / T4 in P4 Scoring (3.94)
• 2^nd in Overall Birdie or Better % (27%) / 1^st in Birdie Average (4.78 birdies / round)

He’s a bit of an outlier from the typical picks here, but his scoring rate always makes him an incredible play for DFS purposes and this week is no different. Last year proved he can make noise no matter the course.

Other golfers to consider:

Emiliano Grillo ($8600) – Pros: Has seemingly fixed the one thing holding him back (the putter) and hasn’t missed a cut if you don’t include the team event. Has picked up four top-10s in eleven events, and finished T24 and T55 here in his last two years. 24^th in SG: Tee to Green, scores at a great rate (4.00/round, 22.3%), and is great on both par-3s and -4s. Cons: Chalky chalk chalk chalk. Struggles around the greens (losing strokes) and with a wedge in his hand – although he’s so short it’s rare he needs one.

Jimmy Walker ($9500) – Pros: Five top-25s in his last five starts, including a runner-up at the Players and a T6 last week at Trinity Forest. Has finished T10 here as a highlight and hasn’t missed a cut going back to 2013. Very strong approach game, scores well on par-4s, and has been solid with the putter outside 10’. Cons: Short hitter that still somehow struggles with accuracy off the tee. Patently bad on par-5s this year – where scoring is a necessity for success – ranks only 89^th in SG: Tee to Green.

Brooks Koepka ($9200) – Pros: Looks healthy coming off a T11 at the Players. Going off last year’s stats, Brooks can smash the ball and is strong with a wedge in his hands which he should have fairly often here. Absurdly high scoring rate (4.2 birdies/round in 2017) and has had a lot of success scoring birdies on both par-4s and -5s. Cons: Game doesn’t fit the course prototype – although it’s very similar to Jon Rahm’s. No course history here. His stats currently look horrendous, although a large part of that is due to both small sample size (he only has 12 measured rounds) and his wrist injury that kept him out for most of the winter tournaments.

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Scott Piercy ($7700): On a course where birdies are tough to come by that has small greens, targeting one of the best players with his irons makes a lot of sense, and Piercy is that in spades: 2^nd in SG: Approach, a combined -35 from 50-150 yards out (176 attempts), with the 28^th-best Proximity to the Hole paints a very nice picture. A good fit for a par-70 course thanks to having to compete on only two par-5s – Piercy picks up BoB on only 43.26% of par-5s – the Nevada native has the most success on par-4s, ranking T13 in Par-4 Scoring.

The problem with Piercy (as always) is his putter, as he’s losing an average of 0.453 strokes/event with his flatstick, and he rarely converts one-putts (36.75%, 168^th). With the small greens, expect a lot of the other golfers to flat-out miss a good percentage of the greens, which is where Piercy can make up the ground that he loses with his putter.

In thirteen events this year, Piercy has picked up a top-25 in seven – including two top-10s – and has missed four cuts; he finished T7 here last year and a T67 in 2016.

Abraham Ancer ($6700) – Pros: Has had a fine year on Tour after playing the Web.com last year; since graduating to the big boys, Ancer has made nine cuts in 13 events including four top-25s and is coming off a T42 at the Bryson Nelson. Seems to prefer the bentgrass greens in Texas. Should see low ownership. Great with a wedge in his hand, solid at scrambling, solid enough on par-4s. Cons: Scoring a birdie or better on only 19.64% of holes isn’t the way to grab a great score on DK, and Ancer is typically poor on the greens (144^th in SG: Putting). Averages only 286.5 yards off the tee, so he may need to break out mid-irons on some holes which isn’t playing to his strengths.

Scott Stallings ($6700) – Pros: Should see very low ownership this week, but has the game to compete at a less-than-driver course; strong on approach and an excellent scrambler if he does miss the greens. Cons: Misses the fairway a touch too often, has gained strokes putting this year but still only ranks 110^th in SG: Putting. Not a big-time scoring golfer which isn’t great for DFS purposes, but is fine at a course where the final score should be relatively low. Has missed six cuts in 13 events played and missed the cut here in 2016.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!