The First Tee – Farmers Insurance Open

This Week

The Farmers is another course rotation event, taking place at the two Torrey Pines courses (North and South) in San Diego. This is another pro-am, but has a regular two-day cut rule (top-65 and ties), and the rotation goes North-South-South-South or South-North-South-South. The North course underwent renovations between the 2016 and 2017 event, and the South course underwent renovations after the 2019 event – anything important will be noted.

THE COURSE – Torrey Pines (North)

Torrey North plays at 7,258 as a par-72, with four par-5s between 520 and 556 yards, and an interesting mix of par-4s: there are short ones at 322, 339 and 393 yards, while five play above 450 yards. Last year there were 27 eagles made (mostly on the par-5s) and the average score on the course was just below par, but the easy holes here are incredibly easy (four holes average -0.36 or better) and removing those from the equation paints a bleak picture. It’s imperative to score on the par-5s and the shorter par-4s, which means strong play off the tee.

Off the tee, golfers will be hitting into narrow fairways – driving accuracy here last year was only 51.01% – and the weather can be a factor given that Torrey Pines is right off the ocean and open to winds. Bunkers were moved around in the 2017 renovation to make up for widening the fairways, and they’re placed strategically further down the fairways then they used to be; there are other hazards here (canyons, some trees) to worry about as well.

One of the factors that makes Torrey Pines interesting is the use of kikuyu grass in the fairways, as it’s not used on many courses and plays very different from the typical bent or Bermuda grass golfers are used to. Kikuyu is short, thick and sticky, and lessens control on iron shots as the grass holds the ball a bit more than the regular grasses; players with strong overall iron play – i.e. looking for someone that’s good on approach from all distances as opposed to someone that excels with wedges but struggles with longer irons – is very important at courses with kikuyu.

The greens here are bentgrass (changed from poa annua in the renovation) and were made bigger by ~40% on average in the renovation, but after changing grass types it usually takes a few years to lose the firmness from the change so the greens will be harder to hold: the past two years, only 64% of greens were hit in regulation compared to 69% to 74% from 2013-16. With the increase in missed greens, scrambling is a factor.

THE COURSE – Torrey Pines (South)

The South course at Torrey Pines is one of the clear bomber’s tracks on Tour, even allowing for Brandt Snedeker’s two wins and two runner-ups here. At almost 7,700 yards as a par-72, golfers will have to be long and as straight as possible off the tee. Eight of the par-4s sit above 437 yards, and last year all eight played above par.

The fairways are tight with a few trees littered around, but there isn’t much in the way of hazards off the tee – the kikuyu rough is almost hazard enough. Accuracy doesn’t project as a large corollary this week but it is more important than the average PGA Tour course, so targeting the golfers that tend to keep it in the fairway and gain strokes off the tee is incredibly important.

On approach, golfers will have basically the same experience as the North course, but they’ll be hitting into smaller, slightly faster greens. With the distances as they are on this course, looking at players that can hit the longer irons well is obviously helpful (on both courses), because stuffing balls onto the speedy greens is no picnic. Unlike the North course, the greens on the South are bumpy Poa Annua.

Comparable courses/events:

Club de golf Chapulpetec (WGC Mexico) – Scoring relative to par has been very similar to the South course since the WGC Mexico started, and both are long courses (although Mexico’s listed longer than it actually is due to altitude) with poa greens and kikuyu grass.

Riviera (Genesis Open) – Riviera C.C. plays a bit tougher than Torrey South and much harder than North, but is another long course with poa greens and kikuyu grass. Fairways are narrow at both, in the 25-27 yard range. There’s some leaderboard overlap – JB Holmes has a win at Riv and three T6 or better here, Bubba has won at both tracks, etc.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Par-4 Scoring
• Carry Efficiency
• Approach Shots: 50-125 Yards
• Proximity to the Hole from the Rough

Top-Tier Golfers

Tony Finau ($9800): He’s coming over from Europe where he finished T10 in the Alfred Dunhills Championship, but Finau’s had loads of success at fall swing season events: a T16 at the Mayakoba last year, a T36 here last year, and overall he has finishes of T36, T16, T41, T16, T7 here. He also finished T23 at the comparable 3M Open this year.

Last season, Finau used his length to great success as he finished in the top-10 six times, and in the top-25 11 times. He ranked 23^rd in SG: Off the Tee thanks to his distance off the tee (309.5, 9^th), but he was also strong on approach (38^th); better still for this week, his proximity from the rough was a stellar 18^th, his par-4 scoring was a fine 4.01 (61^st), and although his birdie average was 3.9/rd, some improved putting would make a world of difference – he converted only 31.7% of birdie putts.

Putting is Finau’s big issue typically, but with slow bentgrass and based on his prior success here, he could overcome that easily.

Matthew Wolff ($8200): He hasn’t played anywhere since the NORTHERN TRUST so he may yet be rusty, but he won at the 3M Open last season (which is a comp. course for TPC Summerlin) thanks to his absurdly-strong play off the tee which will be his main advantage here.

When mentioning Wolff’s stats, it’s important to note he only played 29 measured rounds so the sample size is small, but very impressive:

• 10^th in Driving Distance (309.1)
• 46^th in SG: Tee to Green (+.531)
• T4 in Proximity from 50-125 Yards (16’2”) / -0.279 relative to par
• 3^rd in Par-4 Scoring (3.96) / 1^st in Par-4 Birdie or Better % (22.56%)

It’s the scoring that jumps out when looking at Wolff, as he made birdie or better on a huge 25.1% of his holes last year (keeping in mind small sample and this stat isn’t adjusted for strength of fields/courses) and his par-4 scoring is a great feature at a course that isn’t a par-72.

Wolff’s putting was fine – 75^th in SG: Putting but 11^th in Putting Average – although coming out of college that was neither a huge positive or negative in his game, he should be about average in that area. At his pricetag, his big-hitting and scoring upside mean he’ll probably see loads of ownership, but he should reward eating the chalk.

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Harold Varner III ($7600): Coming off a T17 at the Safeway and T19 at the Greenbrier, HV3 has strong form entering the week and showed last year that he can succeed here (T15) as well as at Mayakoba (T6) which is a comp. course.

Varner can accomplish all that thanks to his play off the tee, because the rest of his play is good-but-not great:

• 89^th in SG: Approach / 77^th in Greens in Regulation (67.2%)
• 146^th in SG: Putting (-0.202)
• 60^th in SG: Tee to Green (+0.429)
• 111^th in Proximity from 50-125 Yards
• 78^th in Par-4 Birdie or Better %

The reason to buy shares of Varner this week (beyond his history) is that his play off the tee will be so much more impactful here than a regular week on tour, which has led to boosted birdie numbers: he made 19 birdies here last year, and only needs to make the cut to repeat.

Sebastian Munoz ($7400): In what can only be described as a mis-price, Munoz is extremely affordable this week and is sure to be chalky given his recent form: he played in the final group at the Safeway (although shot a 76 to finish 33), won at Sanderson Farms and finished T7 at the Greenbrier to open the fall season. He also made the cut at the 3M Open this year, made the cut at the Mayakoba last year, and finished T41 here a year ago.

Statistically, Munoz doesn’t look like much, as last season he was a horrible 77^th from tee to green and was dismal off the tee (mostly thanks to his accuracy or lack thereof). Even still, he managed to hit 68% of greens and was above-average on par-4s; looking at the 12 rounds he’s played this year, he’s continued to be a strong par-4 player who hits greens, and has uncorked driver a bit more than he had last season. A large part of that is the sample size and the courses that he’s played aren’t exactly in the Open rotation, but given this is another easy track, he should be able to take advantage.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!