The First Tee – Farmers Insurance Open

This Week

The Farmers’ Insurance Open is another course rotation event, with golfers playing both the Torrey Pines North & South courses once each before the cut, with the remaining two days both being played on the South course. The cut rules are back to normal here, with a 36-hole cut of top-70 and ties; the FIO is a full field event.

THE COURSE – Torrey Pines (North)

The North course underwent renovations after the 2016 event – the course was lengthened and the fairways were widened along with smaller changes – so looking at history pre-2017 won’t be as effective; beyond that, golfers only play 18 holes on this course every year, so keying in on any the North course too much won’t offer much insight to how golfers can find success at this event.

Torrey North plays at 7,258 as a par-72, with four par-5s between 520 and 556 yards, and an interesting mix of par-4s: there are short ones at 322, 339 and 393 yards, while five play above 450 yards. Last year there were 27 eagles made (mostly on the par-5s) and the average score on the course was just below par, but the easy holes here are incredibly easy (four holes average -0.36 or better) and removing those from the equation paints a bleak picture. It’s imperative to score on the par-5s and the shorter par-4s, which means strong play off the tee.

Off the tee, golfers will be hitting into narrow fairways – driving accuracy here last year was only 51.01% – and the weather can be a factor given that Torrey Pines is right off the ocean and open to winds. Bunkers were moved around in the 2017 renovation to make up for widening the fairways, and they’re placed strategically further down the fairways then they used to be; there are other hazards here (canyons, some trees) to worry about as well.

One of the factors that makes Torrey Pines interesting is the use of kikuyu grass in the fairways, as it’s not used on many courses and plays very different from the typical bent or Bermuda grass golfers are used to. Kikuyu is short, thick and sticky, and lessens control on iron shots as the grass holds the ball a bit more than the regular grasses; players with strong overall iron play – i.e. looking for someone that’s good on approach from all distances as opposed to someone that excels with wedges but struggles with longer irons – is very important at courses with kikuyu.

The greens here are bentgrass (changed from poa annua in the renovation) and were made bigger by ~40% on average in the renovation, but after changing grass types it usually takes a few years to lose the firmness from the change so the greens will be harder to hold: the past two years, only 64% of greens were hit in regulation compared to 69% to 74% from 2013-16. With the increase in missed greens, scrambling is a factor.

THE COURSE – Torrey Pines (South)

The South course at Torrey Pines is one of the clear bomber’s tracks on Tour, even allowing for Brandt Snedeker’s two wins and two runner-ups here. At almost 7,700 yards as a par-72, golfers will have to be long and as straight as possible off the tee. Eight of the par-4s sit above 437 yards, and last year all eight played above par.

The fairways are tight with a few trees littered around, but there isn’t much in the way of hazards off the tee – the kikuyu rough is almost hazard enough. Accuracy doesn’t project as a large corollary this week but it is more important than the average PGA Tour course, so targeting the golfers that tend to keep it in the fairway and gain strokes off the tee is incredibly important.

On approach, golfers will have basically the same experience as the North course, but they’ll be hitting into smaller, slightly faster greens. With the distances as they are on this course, looking at players that can hit the longer irons well is obviously helpful (on both courses), because stuffing balls onto the speedy greens is no picnic. Unlike the North course, the greens on the South are bumpy Poa Annua.

STATS

Put a larger focus on the SG stats this week and less on the counting stats.

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-the-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Approach Shots: 175+ Yards
• Birdie or Better %
• Driving Distance
• Par-5 Scoring
• Bogey Avoidance

Top-Tier Golfer

Tony Finau ($9900)

Pros: Very good course history, with his four times at this event landing finishes of T24, T18, T4 and T6. He’s coming off a T7 at the QBE Shootout and a solo second at the Hero, but hasn’t played since then – which could be a con. Was 13^th in SG: Tee to Green last year, with 1.2 strokes gained per round thanks to great play both off the tee (7^th-longest drive on all holes) and approach (18^th-most greens in reg.) He was 23^rd in score relative to par on longer approach shots, had the 9^th-best BoB% at 23.87% and has the game to make eagles here (especially on the North.)

Cons: His putting was much better last year than it had been in years past, as Finau finished 53^rd in SG: Putting and was 29^th in 3-Putt Avoidance. Finau has been downright awful out of the sand – 159^th in Sand Save % and 134^th in Proximity from the Sand – and he’s got bad accuracy off the tee, hitting the fairway only 55.09% of the time.

Tiger Woods ($10500)

Pros: In 16 tries, Woods has missed only one cut while winning seven times and finishing in the top-10 12 times. Last year, Woods ranked 8^th from tee to green (3^rd in SG: Approach) and 17^th overall in Birdie or Better %. His scoring on par-4s and -5s was elite, as was his birdie average of 4.03; he converted 32% of birdie putts.

Cons: Has only won this event once since it changed its name to Farmers Insurance Open. In all seriousness, since his injuries Woods has finished first, T80, MC and T23 (2013-18) which is not very sparkling considering his price tag.  His distance off the tee was one of the few things he didn’t excel at, averaging only 289 on all drives (64^th), and his accuracy on tee shots has been bad for quite some time – last year, he ranked 127^th in accuracy and 100^th in SG: Off the Tee. Beyond that, his putting was just “above average”. He’ll be chalky.

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Keith Mitchell ($7000)

Pros: Made the cut here in his first effort, although +2 and +6 rounds on the weekend led him to a finish of T63. Mitchell is in fine form after a T16 at the Sony Open, and has both the distance (13^th last year) and skill with the long iron (-45 relative to par outside 200 yards last year) to succeed here. He was 9^th in P5BoB% last year at 53% and sat 12^th in overall BoB% at 23.25%, which are superb numbers relative to his price point.

Cons: He’ll be definite chalk as he’s gotten a lot of chatter already and is so cost effective. His putting is terrible – he lost 0.5 strokes per round with the flatstick last year – as is his play around the green, which is less-than-ideal for the one round at the North course. His putting in his five measured rounds in the 2019 season have continued to be awful, so don’t expect anything to change there.

Trey Mullinax ($6400)

Pros: Last year, Mullinax drove it over 320 yards on a full 50% of his drives (most on Tour) and he finished 8^th in All Drive Distance. Considering the rest of his stats would probably qualify as “Cons”, the fact that Mullinax still finished T44 in BoB% and hit a birdie 3.83 times per round on average is very good for DFS. He’s coming off a T34 last week at the Desert Classic and finished T49 here in 2017.

Cons: Although he did have a made cut in 2017, Mullinax then missed the cut in 2018. To quickly run through his stats to hammer home what a high-risk play he is, Mullinax ranked:

• 183^rd in SG: Approach
• 174^th in SG: Around the Green
• 96^th in SG: Putting

For $6400, a bet on Mullinax is a bet on distance and strong par-5 performances.

 

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!