The First Tee – Farmers Insurance Open
O CANADA! I wrote about both of ‘em, and EY’ you should have played them, because when we are talking aboot’ these guys, Swafford and Hadwin, you had to roster at least one of them for a big finish.
DraftKing Pro Results: Very interesting stat here. 30 of the top 100 finishes in the $33 dogleg came from users that entered over 100 lineups. Obviously, this contest was dominated by the ‘pros.’
JAE686
Yearly Results:
- Wins: 0
- Top 10’s 300/ top 5’s 1060/ top 3’s 5300 (High $$$ GPPs): 2
- Top 10’s (Low $ GPPs): 0
Weekly Results: Not a good week, at all. Our POY from 2016 is not off to great start in 2017 but will look to get back on track in sunny San Diego.
- Contest Results:
- 3/4 Dollar Entries: 150
- Best Finish: 931st
- 33 Entries: 150
- Best Finish: 74th
- 300, 333 or 400 Entries: 7
- Best Finish: None in the top 25
- 1060- 20th
- 5300-9th
- 3/4 Dollar Entries: 150
- Golfers Used: 3/33
- Paul Casey- 48%
- Jon Rahm-37%
- Ryan Palmer*-34%
- Molinari-31%
- Bradley-30%
- Na-22%
- Players Used & Ownership–
- Total Players Used: 52
- Average Core 4 Ownership Total: 150%/400
- Average number of players Used: 49
- Average High Ownership: 44
SaahilSud
Yearly Results:
- Wins:1
- Top 10’s 300/ top 5’s 1060/ top 3’s 5300 (High $$$ GPPs): 1
- Top 10’s (Low $ GPPs): 0
Weekly Results: Man, 2 weeks in a row the ‘go big or go home’ approach just flat out landed Saahil an awful week.
- Contest Results:
- 3/4 Dollar Entries: 150
- Best Finish: 4099th
- 33 Entries:150
- Best Finish: 121st
- 300, 333 or 400 Entries: 7
- Best Finish: 0 in the top 25
- 1060-12th
- 5300- 4th
- 3/4 Dollar Entries: 150
- Core Golfers Used: 3 & 33 $ contests
- Ryan Palmer*-97%
- Casey-86%
- Bradley-60%
- Mickelson-48%
- Castro/Blaum-42%
- Steele-37%
- Swafford-22%
- Dufner/Taylor/McGirt*-20%
- Players Used & Ownership–
- Total Players Used this Week: 31**
- Average Core 4 Ownership Total: 285%/400%
- Average Number of Players Used: 30
- Average High Ownership: 90%
Jetblackx
Yearly Results:
- Wins: 1
- Top 10’s 300/ top 5’s 1060/ top 3’s 5300 (High $$$ GPPs): 1
- Top 10’s (Low $ GPPs): 3
Weekly Results: 2 more finishes in the top 10 of the dogleg, as this is two weeks in a row now for our resident player.
- Contest Results:
- 3/ 4 dollar Entries: 150
- Best Finish: 121st
- 33 Entries: 150
- Best Finish:5th, 8th, 25th
- 300, 333 or 400 Entries: 7
- Best Finish: 19th
- 1060-3rd
- 5300-6th
- 3/ 4 dollar Entries: 150
- Core Golfers Used: 3 & 33
- Casey/Rham-44%
- Kisner-43%
- Palmer*-36%
- Norlander-32%
- Danny Lee/Wise-23%
- Na-22%
- Hadwin/Blaum-20%
- Swafford-13%
- Players Used & Ownership–
- Total Players Used: 44
- Average Core 4 Ownership Total: 190%/400%
- Average Number of Players Used: 43
- Average High Ownership: 58
FlavorFlav- Back Out. We’ll pick a new user.
CSURAM88- Jennings of Fantasy Labs, hadn’t been seen on the golf circuit, at least for mass entries, in quite some time. But he’s back and of course he picks up a W along the way.
Yearly Results:
- Wins:1
- Top 10’s 300/ top 5’s 1060/ top 3’s 5300 (High $$$ GPPs): 0
- Top 10’s (Low $ GPPs): 0
Weekly Results: Highest owned guy, again was Paul Casey at 70%.
- Contest Results:
- 3/4 Dollar Entries: 150
- Best Finish: 317th
- 33 Entries:150
- Best Finish: 17th, 36th
- 300, 333 or 400 Entries: 7
- Best Finish: 13th
- 1060-1st
- 5300-n/a
- 3/4 Dollar Entries: 150
- Core Golfers Used: 3 & 33 $ contests
- Rahm-51%
- Swafford-43.3%
- List-41%
- Garrigus-37%
- Palmer*-36%
- O’Hair-33%
- Vegas/Glover/Grillo*-31%
- Kaufman-30%
- Grayson Murray-29%
- Lovemark*-25%
- Castro-23%
- Reed/Steele-20%
- Players Used & Ownership–
- Total Players Used this week: 25
- Average Core 4 Ownership Total: 180%/400%
- Average Number of Players Used: 25
- Average High Ownership: 51%
Mazwa- Last week must have put a bad taste in this user’s mouth. He did not compete this week.
PSBC22- Making his return to the course, this user we’ve seen here a few different times. He’s back and full of max entries.
Yearly Results:
- Wins:0
- Top 10’s 300/ top 5’s 1060/ top 3’s 5300 (High $$$ GPPs): 0
- Top 10’s (Low $ GPPs): 1
Weekly Results: Highest owned guy, again was Paul Casey at 70%.
- Contest Results:
- 3/4 Dollar Entries: 150
- Best Finish: 156th
- 33 Entries:150
- Best Finish: 9th, 21st, 25th
- 300, 333 or 400 Entries: 5
- Best Finish: No finishes in the top 25
- 1060-DFL
- 5300- DFL
- 3/4 Dollar Entries: 150
- Core Golfers Used: 3 & 33 $ contests
- Haas-38%
- Palmer*-34%
- Reavei-33.3%
- Hadwin/Lovemark*/Rahm-30%
- Glover/Mickelson/Dufner/List-28%
- Lahiri-25%
- Thompson*-24%
- Howell-22%
- Na-20%
- Players Used & Ownership–
- Total Players Used this week: 55
- Average Core 4 Ownership Total:130%/400%
- Average Number of Players Used: 55
- Average High Ownership: 38%
I_Slewfoot_U- Well he makes it back, as he finally maxed entered most contest.
Yearly Results:
- Wins:0
- Top 10’s 300/ top 5’s 1060/ top 3’s 5300 (High $$$ GPPs): 0
- Top 10’s (Low $ GPPs): 1
Weekly Results: Highest owned guy, again was Paul Casey at 70%.
- Contest Results:
- 3/4 Dollar Entries: 150
- Best Finish: 363rd
- 33 Entries:150
- Best Finish: 1930th
- 300, 333 or 400 Entries: 7
- Best Finish: None in the top 25
- 1060- N/A
- 5300- N/A
- 3/4 Dollar Entries: 150
- Core Golfers Used: 3 & 33 $ contests
- Rahm-100%
- Ishikawa/Casey/list/Summerhays*/Danny Lee/ Na/Steele/Piercy/Molinari/Lingermeth/Bradley/Zach Johnson*/ Dufner/ Castro/ Grillo*/Kirk- 20%
- Players Used & Ownership-
- Total Players Used this week: 33
- Average Core 4 Ownership Total:160%/400%
- Average Number of Players Used: 33
- Average High Ownership: 100%
Bric75- Back on the list with some max entries. Let’s see how he did:
Yearly Results:
- Wins:0
- Top 5’s (High $$$ GPPs): 0
- Top 10’s (Low $ GPPs): 0
Weekly Results: A few very high finishes in the 3$ and $33 may help him enter the max next week.
- Contest Results:
- 3/4 Dollar Entries: 150
- Best Finish: 20th, 50th, 59th. Same issue as me, bankroll didn’t allow him to enter all 150 of these lineups into the dogleg.
- 33 Entries: 35
- Best Finish: 14th
- 300, 333 or 400 Entries: 1
- Best Finish: None in the top 25.
- 1060- N/A
- 5300- N/A
- 3/4 Dollar Entries: 150
- Core Golfers Used: 3 & 33 $ contests
- List-44%
- Rahm-38%
- Swafford-38%
- Piercy-37%
- Glover-36%
- Cink*/Simpson-35%
- Reavie-32%
- Bradley-26%
- Mickelson/Hadwin-24%
- Zach Johnson*-20%
- Players Used & Ownership-
- Total Players Used this week: 34
- Average Core 4 Ownership Total:160%/400%
- Average Number of Players Used: 34
- Average High Ownership: 44%
Jrozzinri– Hey, it’s me.
Yearly Results:
- Wins:0
- Top 10’s 300/ top 5’s 1060/ top 3’s 5300 (High $$$ GPPs): 1
- Top 10’s (Low $ GPPs): 0
Weekly Results: Not a bad week, I got all my money back after cashing in the 300$ and a good finish in the 3$. I didn’t follow my gut enough with Hadwin to get myself in to the to 25. Too bad.
- Contest Results:
- 3/4 Dollar Entries: 150
- Best Finish: 84th *** Too bad I didn’t have the bankroll of some of the guys above as this lineup would have been good enough to win the $33 dogleg.
- 33 Entries: 13
- Best Finish: 400th
- 300, 333 or 400 Entries: 1
- Best Finish: 51st Bubble boy, on the right side this time.
- 1060-N/A
- 5300- N/A
- 3/4 Dollar Entries: 150
- Core Golfers Used: 3 & 33 $ contests
- Rahm-70%
- Lahiri-44%
- Grillo*-43%
- Howell/List-36%
- Lovemark- 29%
- Loupe*-23%
- Swafford-18%
- Players Used & Ownership–
- Total Players Used this week: 70**Too many
- Average Core 4 Ownership Total:170%/400%
- Average Number of Players Used: 60
- Average High Ownership: 63%
DK-Contest Stats & Trends: In this section, I’m going to provide some quick stats and trends and sometimes a few peculiar facts.
- You know that narrative. All you need is ‘love’, sometimes interchanged with ‘one’. Well with two commonly known users “@ScottiAc11 and Al Smizzle @alzeidenfeld” they had 1/150 lineups that had all 6 golfers make the cut. In each case they both were able to place in the top 40 of the $3 birdie, and would have won the $33 dogleg had they played it. Scotti finished in 17th and Al finished in 34th. Talk about blowing your core players and getting extremely lucky on the back end… Rather be lucky than good though.
- Just over 8% of the lineups in the $33 200k dogleg got 6/6 thru the cut line, 7% in the $3 250k birdie, and 10% in the $300 70k 3 wood.
- Even with the MC at the Sony Open last week, and responding to trolls on Twitter, Ryan Palmer was owned by 8/10 lineups in the 5300 Thunder dome. Guess the ‘pros’ still loved him. We all know how that turned out.
- A flip flop from last week, a max enter user won the $3, and a user with only 3 lineups won the 33$.
Famer’s Insurance Stats & Trends:
Torrey Pines…Ahh what a beaut this course is. One of the hardest tracks the Tour will face this year. In fact, it ranked 2/50 last year. Let’s see what stats I’m focusing on this week.
Last week’s results: Garrigus, Howell, Murray. Not bad. Not great though. The web guys I featured did very well.
Stats:
- Birdie or Better*- Always
- DJ, Day, Koepka, Matsuyama, Mickelson Web Guys: Murray, Bryan, Poston, Campbell, Blaum
- 200-225 Approach Shots-
- Matsuyama, Kokra, Oosthuizen, Leishman, Garrigus
- Driving Distance-
- Rough Proximity
- Hoffman, DJ, Snedeker, Glover, Points
- Strokes Gained Putting-
- Day, English, Baddeley, Mickelson, Molder
- Par 5 Scoring- Day, DJ, J.Walker, Woodland, Varner- Web.com guys/ Murray, Brehm, Hagy,
Trends:
- Average Winning Score since 2010- -9
- Average Cut Score Day- -1
- Stats from last year’s winner- Rough Proximity
Player Focus: Guys, there’s no other way to say it, I nailed it. If you followed me last week, even with Hubbard, you made money. Maybe lots.
- Percentage of Picks that Made the Cut – 75%
- Number of Winners Picked – 2
- Number of Top 10s Picked 2 events – 10
Players: Top 5 guys and a pick to click this week.
Last Week’s Result: 1st, 2nd, 12th, 17th, 31st, 71st, MC
- Brandt Snedeker- $9,100 How is it possible to bet against this guy at this tournament? 2 wins, 2 runner ups, another top 10, I mean that’s incredible. He’s my course history play of the week.
- Gary Woodland- $8,600 He’s never missed a cut here in 6 tries, and is coming in with good recent form. I expect him to be chalk this week at a nice price point, but he probably ends up returning some pretty good value.
- Tiger Woods- $7,900 Common now. Swafford just won from this price, why not Tiger? LES GO! Just make the cut big ol’ cat, please. Try and also remember he’s won this tournament multiple times. 8 to be exact.
- Hudson Swafford- $7,500 Well this will be the first test of DK releasing salaries for next week’s tournament before the current tournament is over. He win’s and his salary is reduced by $400. Have to ride the Swaff until he fades away.
- Brian Harman- $6,700 20th 2 weeks ago, 3rd last week, and he’s 3/4 here. I love the value here.
- Martin Laird- $6,500 Nice top 10 for Laird in La Quinta last week, mix that in the bag with back to back top 10s here in San Diego, I’m a buyer.
Pick to Click: 5 guys above 10k this week.
- Dustin Johnson- $11,200 Man this one’s tough because JDay has great CH but DJ is coming off a tied for second in Dubai. Hard to bet against either of them but if you are only doing 1 lineup, I’d recommend DJ.
Fades:
Last Week’s Results: 2/2 both missed the cut.
- Paul Casey- $9,600 Done with him. 0/2 here and just don’t think his game is where it was in the fall.
- Danny Lee- $7,100 Ah this game. When to play Danny and when not to. I’m out this week.
Names to know, or I had to look up.
- Beau Hossler-$6,100 The Texas Longhorn product is no stranger to PGA tour events as he has played in 2 US Opens at the age of 16 and 17. This will be his first start as a professional, so let’s see if he can get off to a running start! He’ll need to make the equivalent of 175th place on the official PGA Tour Money Rankings list in only 7 sponsor invites. If he can do that he will gain conditional tour status, much like Jon Rahm, and then you can qualify for fully exempt through earnings, again see Jon Rahm.
- Chris Gilley-$6,000 Looks like this guy is a local club pro. Either he won an event to qualify or he’s here on a sponsorship exemption. Either way there’s just not enough info to roster him.
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Tweet me and follow me @DFSgolfer23. Good Luck!
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