The First Tee – Desert Classic

It’s a three-course rotation this week at the Desert Classic (formerly CareerBuilder Challenge), which means a 54-hole cut and if the cut is more than 78 golfers, only the top-60 and ties make it. There’s only shot tracker data available on one course (TPC Stadium) and it’s rare to even see cameras sometimes – Adam Hadwin shot a 59 here two years ago and nobody got to watch it until he was on the 13^th or 14^th hole.

The three courses this week are TPC Stadium at PGA West (which gets played twice), PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club.

This is one of the more important weeks in terms of checking the weather due to the course rotation, although picking which school of thought you believe in is up to you – if there’s poor/windy weather, would you rather have your players on the easiest course (La Quinta), or would you rather have them on La Quinta on a day with optimal scoring conditions?

THE COURSE – TPC Stadium

TPC Stadium Course is a very standard Pete Dye course: narrow fairways, short, lots of a bunkers, and water coming into play – there’s an island green here reminiscent of TPC Sawgrass. It’s listed at 7,113 and a par-72, but the fairways are tight which means a longer approach shot in (above 150 yards is a good distance to focus on) and keeping driver in the bag. That’s a theme this week, although the PGA West Course (below) has little-to-no rough and golfers can hit the big stick a bit more often.

TPC Stadium is the hardest of the three courses, with the highest slope and stroke ratings (150/76.1) of the three. The par-3s are an important factor as all four play tough – tougher here than the other two courses.

THE COURSE – PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course

I never spend much time talking about PGA West, as it’s a very run-of-the-mill course that doesn’t play as big a role as Stadium (obviously) or La Quinta (much easier.) There’s little rough off the fairways which are of average size, and it’s a par-72 at 7,159 yards; with the four par-5s, par-5 scoring will be important, but typically the separation at this course comes on the greens. The greens are Bermuda and are slightly larger than average, but have lots of undulation.

THE COURSE – La Quinta C.C.

La Quinta is one of the easier courses on Tour as it’s a par-72 listed at just 7,060 yards. The par-5s at LQ are a huge factor in picking up strokes on the field, as they play between only 516-547 yards. The course itself is lined with trees and has narrow fairways, but the short distance – beyond the par-5s, there are five par-4s below 405 yards – helps turn this into a birdie-fest.

Players will typically club down to woods or driving irons off the tee, but beyond water on seven holes and the tight fairways, this is the easiest of the three courses with larger, straight-forward greens. The greens are a poa annua/ Bermuda mix, so they’ll be slightly bumpier than the Bermuda greens of the other two courses.

Naturally long hitters have the advantage here, as do good putters.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-the-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Par-5 Scoring
• Proximity to the Hole
• Par-3 Scoring
• Efficiency From 150-200 Yards

Top-Tier Golfer

Adam Hadwin ($10000):

Pros: Incredible course history here, including shooting that 59 two years ago, as he’s yet to miss the cut here and his past three finishes were third, second and sixth. He’s coming off a T57 at the Sony but picked up at T10 at Mayakoba and a T10 at the CJ Cup in the fall. He’s a deadly accurate player off the tee, and also hit 68% of greens in regulation last year; he’s been fine relative to par outside of 150 yards, although his proximity rankings aren’t great. Hadwin’s a great par-4 scorer, and elite on par-3s on weeks his putter cooperates.

Cons: Hadwin’s 2018 numbers on the whole look atrocious, but mostly his putting dried up – he went from a top-20 putter in 2017 to 88^th in 2018. Last week at the Sony was an improvement, ranking 31^st and gaining 0.5 strokes on the field, but his flatstick is a much bigger concern than in years past even on (mostly) Bermuda greens. Hadwin is extremely short off the tee (289 on average, 159^th) which doesn’t lead to many birdies (3.6 on average) and poor par-5 scoring.

PLEASE NOTE: Hadwin is very much a course history play. If you don’t believe in course history or don’t want to pay an extravagant price for course history, consider Hudson Swafford ($8300) – also strong course history with his last three times here resulting in 29^th, 1^st, 56^th, but Swafford showed excellent form last week at the Sony in getting from tee to green.

Abraham Ancer ($9300):

Pros: Last year, Ancer finished the year T70 in SG: T2G (not a bad number for as young as he is) but performed extremely well to finish the year – after missing the cut at the Open Championship, he’s played 11 times and has picked up a T2, 1^st (Australian Open), T4, T5, T7, 5^th and only missed one additional cut. He’s a bit short but he’s accurate off the tee, and he’s very good with longer irons; with the short par-5s and the opportunity to go iron off the tee, the course sets up well for Ancer.

Cons: Has played here three times since 2013, with a missed cut and finishes of 56^th and 76^th (last year.) He’s never been much of a scorer, last year ranking 108^th in birdie or better percentage, with a birdie average of 3.64 – not exactly ideal for DraftKings. His putting is incredibly inconsistent from round to round, and overall it’s bad as he lost 0.56 strokes per round last year with putter in hand.

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Bud Cauley ($7400):

Pros: Since coming back from injury, Bud finished T46, T10 and T29 during the Fall Swing (with a missed cut at the RSM), continuing what was a pretty good year prior to his accident with five T25s. Bud’s only missed the cut here once, and has finished 3^rd, 14^th (twice), 30^th and 37^th. Bud’s typically been good around the greens and with the putter, and with longer irons (see Ancer.) He’s strong on par-3s.

Cons: His birdie capability last year was pretty low, averaging 3.64 birdies per round, and a large part of that is his lack of distance off the tee. Last year he only hit 64% of greens in regulation (147^th) and actually lost strokes on approach, and ranked a pretty bad 104^th in SG: T2G. That’s mostly stayed the same in the 2019 season (although a small sample), so there’s a definite risk/reward to Cauley this week.

Brendan Steele ($7600):

Pros: Last year, Steele gained the 39^th-most strokes from tee to green thanks to elite play off the tee (15^th SG:OTT) as he’s one of the longest players on tour. He also gained the 61^st-most strokes on approach and hit 69% of greens in regulation (35^th); if he could putt, his par-5 scoring would be excellent, because he ranked 18^th in Going for the Green last year. He’s had some fine history at this event, with a 6^th and 2^nd the highlights along with a 20^th, 34^th, 56^th, 67^th and two missed cuts.

Cons: Everything for Steele starts and ends with the putter, which will make him a very risky play this week (and every week.) Last year, Steele ranked 189^th in SG: Putting, losing 0.576 strokes per round and converting only 28% of birdie or better putts – 9% less than the best (DJ) and 1.23% less than the tour average. It’s for that reason that he looks poor in every scoring category, so like Cauley he’s also pretty high risk/reward.

PLEASE NOTE: Since Cauley and Steele are so high-risk, also consider Corey Conners ($7500), Ryan Armour ($7100) or Al Albertson ($7200).

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!