The First Tee – Dell Technologies Championship

The second leg of the FedEx Cup takes place at TPC Boston, and will feature 98 golfers as of this writing, with Francesco Molinari and Rickie Fowler skipping the event. There’s still a cut at top-70 and ties, but there’s no MDF in the playoffs; with only ~25 golfers missing the cut, you can basically treat this week as a no-cut.

The Course

The scores at TPC Boston come in the mid-double digits, with the lowest winning score coming at -14 all the way back in 2005, and the best score -22 (three times: Singh, Hoffman, and Stenson). Even with winning scores in the teens, the cut has proven to be tough, with three of the past five events coming at +3 while the other two came at -1.

TPC Boston is a 7,342 yard par-71, and it plays long: five of the par-4s are above 450-yards, one of the par-5s sits at 600, but it’s the par-3s that will offer a tough test as three of the four play above 200. That isn’t to say there aren’t easy holes however, as there are two driveable par-4s on the front nine (1^st and 4^th at 365 and 353 respectively) which saw a combined 218 birdies and five eagles last year; the finishing par-5 is short and played 0.326 below par last year with 17 eagles.

The fairways at the course are extremely wide on average, 35 yards across at the 300-yard marker, but that’s boosted a touch by the 12^th and the 14^th – which are actually the two hardest holes on the course. They’re still wider fairways than the average course on Tour, and over the past five years driving accuracy has ranged between 63% and 68%. The fairways are lined with trees, there’s fescue in the rough, and there are chocolate drop mounds and bunkers to worry about, but the rough is thin at TPC Boston and if the tee shot isn’t too wild, missing the fairway won’t kill anyone.

Golfers won’t have to club down here, with the average driving distance in the 290 range, but there are still a good number of approach shots that come outside 150 yards thanks to the length on the longer par-4s and the three par-5s. As always, approach shot dispersions should be focused on the type of golfer you’re considering – keep the 150-175 range in mind if you’re looking at a shorter hitter, but below that for the Koepkas and DJs.

Approach shots will be into bentgrass greens, which are relatively easy to hit but tough to position on; ~66% of greens are hit in regulation, but the average proximity to the pin is 35-38’ away. That number is thanks to lots of front slope and undulation on the greens, which are slick and should be speedy. Missing the green can hurt, but ending up in the sand is a better alternative than missing into rough: the greenside bunkers are shallow, and this is one of the five easiest courses in term of sand save percentage year after year.

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Off the Tee
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Approach Shots 125-150 Yards (see note above)
• Driving Distance
• Putting Inside 10’
• Par-3 Scoring

Top-Tier Golfer

Jason Day ($10400): The Australian has played TPC Boston ten times, and although he’s yet to win here, he’s finished T2, T3, and T7, and has eight top-25s in ten tries with no missed cuts. His recent form is great, with no missed cut since the U.S. Open and no finishes worse than T20 in his last five events.

The main concern about rostering Day – especially in a stacked field event – is his play with his irons, as he’s lost 0.67 strokes on approach per round this year. While some of those poor numbers are from anomaly weeks and he’s shown an improvement in that area recently, last week at the Northern Trust he ranked 63^rd in SG: APP and lost strokes which is a worry.

Even while he’s struggled in gaining strokes on the field, Day is still -42 when approaching the green between 50-150 yards (173 attempts) and if he hits the fairway his average score is 0.189 below par which is third-best on Tour. That’s mostly thanks to his stellar putting, as Day’s average proximity of 37’1” (or 31’9” from the fairway) is in the bottom-100 of golfers, but he still gets the ball in the hole at a great rate.

Statistical highlights:

• 9^th in Birdie or Better % (23.75)
• T40 in Par-3 Scoring (3.03) and T34 in Par-3 BoB% (15.72)
• 1^st in SG: Putting / 2^nd in Putts Inside 10’
• 1^st in SG: Around the Green
• 28^th in SG: Tee to Green

He’ll have to improve on his driving accuracy of 59.72% to compete, but with the wide fairways he should be able to keep up with the field and let his putting propel him on the leaderboard.

 

Other golfers to consider:

Tommy Fleetwood ($8500)

Pros: Absurdly cheap relative to true talent level. Hasn’t missed a cut in North America going back to the Wells Fargo in May, and has seven top-10s and 15 top-25s in 21 total events on the PGA and Euro tours. Sits 9^th in SG: Tee to Green thanks to strong play off the tee – long and relatively accurate – and hits 68% of greens in regulation. 5^th in scoring average on approach shots between 125-150 yards, 4^th in scoring average when he hits the fairway. 8^th-best Birdie or Better % and ranks 12^th and 6^th in P4 and P5 BoB respectively.

Cons: Has no course history, and his putter doesn’t always cooperate – he’s 74^th in SG: Putting. He actually converts 34.53% of birdie putts (8^th) but ranks a brutal 164^th in One-Putt percentage, and struggles inside 10’. He’s awful when he misses the fairway (22 over par in 131 attempts) and misses 37% of the time.

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Emiliano Grillo ($7100): His finishes of T33 and 22 the past two years – shooting -5 and -6 respectively – bode well for Grillo, and while his play has fallen off slightly over where he was earlier this year, Grillo has still made three straight cuts and has continued to putt the lights out. With so many players getting to the green in regulation this week, putting will be the great equalizer, and Grillo with his 10^th-place ranking in SG: Putting is in a great spot to take advantage.

His one-putt percentage has dropped a touch over the past few events, but he’s still connecting on 39.29% of one-putts and is converting birdie putts at a 30% clip. Grillo’s not great outside 10’ – although he’s been weirdly good (1^st) outside of 25’ – but he avoids three-putts and has the best average distance of putts made; Grillo’s best putting performances this year have come on bentgrass, which also bodes well for this week.

The only big hole in the Argentinian’s game is his play when he misses the green – 142^nd in SG: ARG, losing 0.97 strokes per round – which is negligible on a course where the greenside bunkers are shallow and so many greens get hit in regulation.

Statistical highlights:

• 46^th SG: T2G (fine at this price point)
• T7 in Driving Accuracy (69.91%) / 16^th in Distance from Edge of the Fairway
• 13^th in Approach Shots 150-175 – he’s a shorter hitter so this distance matters – at 26 under par
• T3 Par-3 Scoring (2.98) / 6^th in Par-3 Birdie or Better % (16.56%)

Gary Woodland ($7700)

Pros: Made the cut eight straight weeks and has four top-25s here out of six tries, with three straight finishes better than 20^th. 5^th in Greens in Regulation (71.11%), dominant off the tee (3^rd in SG: OTT), and 21^st overall in SG: tee to green. Has the length to put up eagles – 15^th in holes per eagle – and is very strong on holes above 450 yards.

Cons: Putting will also be his downfall, as he ranks 111^th in SG: Putting and is a dismal 197^th in One-Putt percentage (32.56%). He’s also bad around the greens, but luckily hits so many of them that it shouldn’t have a huge impact. Driving accuracy is middle of the pack and his iron play is better with mid irons than wedges.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!