The First Tee – WGC Dell Match Play

This Week

For Match Play, it’s a good idea to get a refresher on how the scoring works this week:

HOLES WON +3 / HOLES HALVED +0.75 PTS / HOLES LOST -0.75 PTS /HOLES NOT PLAYED +1.6 PTS (to the winning golfer only)

MATCHES WON +5 PTS / MATCHES HALVED +2 PTS

STREAK OF 3 CONSECUTIVE HOLES WON IN MATCH {MAX 1 PER ROUND} +5 PTS / NO HOLES LOST IN MATCH BONUS +7.5 PTS (10 holes played to qualify)

Other things of note: In the case of a WD, the winning golfer gets awarded all the points as Holes Not Played. The other change is that once it hits the Round of 16, if playoff holes are needed they are also counted towards the total point total. The top-4 golfers will get to play seven matches each so there’s much more emphasis on nailing the bracket – familiarize yourself with the groups and who plays who.

THE COURSE

The WGC Match Play event takes place in Austin, Texas, at the Austin Country Club. With this being match play instead of stroke play, the par (71) is meaningless, and typically the last two or three holes have much less impact – which means there are essentially only two par-5s and three par-3s to consider outside of the par-4s. The par-5s are incredibly easy and range from 565 to 590 yards, and they saw a combined 23 eagles last year which was 4% of scores on the -5s. The par-3s are relatively short, especially compared to last week at Copperhead, between 150 and 201 yards with only the longer 7^th hole playing above par last time out.

The key here will be the par-4s, and being able to make birdies; seven of the first ten holes are -4s and ten of the first 15 holes, with all but three playing (slightly) below par. There are five short ones (317 to 394) and two that play at or above 490, with the remaining four falling between those.

Austin C.C. is a Pete Dye design that has all the typical features of a Dye course: narrow (slightly) tree-lined fairways with well-placed bunkers but relatively easy rough, tough greenside bunkers, hazards, and really just a second-shot course. Given it’s so short and the positioning into greens is more important, expect to see longer players dial it back a bit off the tee with driving irons and woods.

Even with the shortness of the course, approaches will typically still be outside the 50-125 wedge range, so focus on the 125-175 range (either proximity or relative to par.) Golfers will be hitting into firm and fast Bermuda greens that don’t offer much resistance, and poor putters have found some success here in the past.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Par-4 Birdie or Better %
• Proximity to the Hole
• Approach Shots: 125-175 Yards
• Distance from the Edge of the Fairway
• Scrambling %

Top-Tier Golfers

Rory McIlroy ($11700): He’s got a very soft group – Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Harding and Luke List aren’t exactly a murderer’s row – and there’s no one in golf playing as well as Rory is at the moment after his win at the the PLAYERS and no finish worse than T6 in six events (think of how insane that is!)

Rory has always had success on Dye courses and his game from tee to green speaks for itself, but his putting will be the big factor in whether or not to fade him this week; he’s only gaining 0.326 strokes / round with the putter (56^th), but he’s still avoiding three-putts under 2% of the time (21^st) so he won’t make bogeys, but the concern will be on his birdie-making. While the putter is a concern, he’s still the fourth-best scorer on par-4s and has the eighth-best overall birdie or better percentage, so load him in.

Tommy Fleetwood ($9600): Not only does Fleetwood have a relatively soft group – he’s lumped in with Oosthuizen, Stanley and An and would face the winner of DeChambeau, Leishman, Aphibarnrat and Knox if he advances – but he’s performed well during the Florida swing with a T5 at the PLAYERS and a T3 at API. He’s performed very well on Dye courses and has been dominant off the tee so far which is great on narrow fairways.

Fleetwood’s also been very strong on par-4s, both avoiding bogeys and making birdies (18.62%) which has given him a scoring average of 3.98, and given the tough group of courses he’s played this season, his overall BoB% of 22.22% is much better than his ranking of 80^th would presume.

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Gary Woodland ($7800): Always a good option on less-than-driver courses, Woodland will have to pick on Eddie Pepperell and Emiliano Grillo and hope for the best against the incredibly talented Justin Rose, but if he gets out of group stage he’d face the winner of Bubba, Spieth, Horschel and Na.

Gary currently ranks 7^th in SG: T2G and has put up a whopping -21 relative to par on approaches between 150-175 yards (80 attempts) which is good for second, and he’s also hit 73.3% of greens in regulation. He’s not the most accurate off the tee but he’s very long which has helped him hit birdie or better on a massive 60% of par-5s so far, but more impressive is Woodland’s ranking of 10^th in BOTH par-3 BoB% and par-4 BoB% – his putting has typically held him back from those types of scores. He’s a big-time scorer which is key in match play, and his price tag makes him a very reasonable choice; beyond his missed cut at Valspar last week, Woody finished T30 and T36 at Sawgrass and Honda which bodes well.

Matt Wallace ($7100): The Englishman has the tougher side of the bracket and is in the pod with Justin Thomas, Keegan Bradley and Lucas Bjerregaard, but he offers a ton of upside at low ownership and is very similar to Tommy Fleetwood in that he’s excellent on par-4s (3.98) and has played very well in Florida with finishes of T30, T6 and T20 at Sawgrass, API and Honda.

There isn’t any aspect of golf that Wallace is bad at, but he’s 74^th in SG: Approach and is better at longer approaches which isn’t the ideal set-up for this course. At the same time, he’s a longer hitter and can get out of jams easily on missed greens, as Wallace ranks 16^th in SG: ARG and 40^th SG: Putting; he’s been very strong out of the sand and is nails at converting birdie putts.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!