The First Tee – CJ Cup by Adam Daly

This week is another no-cut event with a late lock, on a new course and no ShotTracker. There’s still money to be made, but it’s always a good idea to dial back the entries when there’s almost no information out there.

This Week

THE COURSE

The CJ Cup is played at Nine Bridges on Jeju Island, as a 7196-yard par-72. This course is almost two different courses merged together, with the front nine featuring wide fairways, thin rough, creeks and stone walls while the back nine plays more like a highland (Scottish) course. Nine Bridges – although it only has eight bridges – is listed as the 43^rd best golf course in the world, and was designed by Golf Plan (David Dale and Steve Wenzloff).

There are only two par-4s above 450 yards, and the four par-5s range between 550-600 yards, so this course will play short for a par-72.

While there is a smattering of trees on the course, the real trap off the tee shot will be some severe fairway bunkers – the slope in the bunkers is severe and will make it tough for golfers to hit out of sand. The other issue off the tee will be avoiding the large bodies of water that could come into play on five holes, with the 2^nd hole on the Highland course being hugged up the entire right side with water. With the fairways as wide as they are, most golfers will be safe to let the ball fly.

The fairways are bentgrass, and have some sloping and undulation to them, so long drives will be fairly common this week, setting up short approach shots in. The greens themselves are large – also bentgrass – with slight undulation, but on their face shouldn’t offer much of a challenge.

The 18^th hole (or 9^th on the Highland course) sets up to be the most fun of the week, as a 568-yard par-5 with a large peninsula green. It’s got a very wide end of the fairway to allow golfers to lay up safely, but also offers a clear path for the ultra-aggressive from about 240 yards away.

 

This week should prove to be very high-scoring again, looking at past scores from the Asian Tour: the CJ Invitational was hosted on this course from 2011-2013, with winning scores of -17, -15 and -12 (KJ Choi hosted and won in both ’11 and ’12). The LPGA also ran an event here for four years in the early 2000s, where scoring was lower twice (-3 and -5), but they also saw scores of -16 and -12. Expect PGA pros in a no-cut to decimate those scores this year. The course underwent re-bunkering to prepare for this event, but no other changes have been made.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-The-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Driving Distance
• Approach Shots: 50-125 Yards
• Par-5 Scoring

The Golfers

Justin Thomas ($12100): After finishing as the Player of the Year and coming T17 last week at the CIMB Classic, Thomas enters the week looking forward to a long vacation, but still sets up as the elite player in this field. JT got off to a rocky start on Wednesday and Thursday night in Malaysia (70, 71) but started to flash some of his form on the weekend with a 69 and 67.

As last year’s 8^th-longest hitter on Tour (309.7 yards), JT should be able to continue that on a course that rewards longer hitters. His poor accuracy off the tee (162^nd) shouldn’t come into play, which will put him in excellent positions for getting to the green; there was nobody better from 50-125 yards out last year than Thomas, averaging 15’6” to the pin from those distances (-44 RTP) which helped him land 6^th in SG: Approach.

Between the distance and top approach game, JT ended up 2^nd in both eagles – attainable on three of the four par-5s this week unless getting super bold – and birdie average. His overall rank of 1^st in Birdie or Better percentage (25.88%) and 1^st in Par-4 BoB% shows just how good he is, and with scoring being so necessary on this course, JT is the clear number one.

Values:

Hudson Swafford ($7300): In the same vein as Thomas, Swafford is a long hitter (305.1, 22^nd) that’s solid on approach (66^th in SG: Approach) but better from closer in – ranking T47 in approach shots between 50-125. His putting can hold him back, but he really shines on par-5s (24^th in P5BoB%/27^th P5 Scoring) and has an overall Birdie or Better % of 20.8%. With Nine Bridges not offering much in the way of tough greenside bunkers – there are many of them, but they’re not as severe as the fairway bunkers – Swafford’s poor scrambling and poor play around the greens should be neutralized. In a no-cut event, he makes a high-risk/high-reward play as a long hitter on a short track.

Jamie Lovemark ($7500): Long hitter (24^th), scores on par-4s and -5s (41^st/39^th respectively), 14^th in holes per eagle. Scoring matters in a no-cut more than bogey avoidance, so Lovemark’s propensity to hit too many putts now and again should be offset by his ability to stick close to the pin the rest of the time.

Kyle Stanley ($7200): Stanley’s not the longest hitter (66^th) but is deadly accurate (13^th) and above average approaching from short distances (49^th). He struggles putting on Bermuda so he should perform better this week on the bentgrass greens, and is coming off a T21 at the CIMB Classic.

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open.