The First Tee – CJ Cup

This Week

This week is a Shotlink-less no-cut event, so barring any WDs everyone will make it through four full rounds. As a reminder, lock is Wednesday evening given the time difference.

The Course

Nine Bridges is the host of the CJ Cup, and it’s a par-72 listed at just above 7200 yards. There are only two par-4s that play outside 450 yards, the par-5s range from 550-589 yards, and only one of the four par-3s plays outside 200 yards so all-in-all this is a very short course. Last year saw 32 combined eagles and the par-5s are incredibly easy, but even with the course being as short as it is, it’s still tough: nine holes averaged above par last year and 17 golfers finished worse than par. 2018 was even tougher as the winning score was -9 and 53 golfers finished worse than par.

This course is set up in two very different ways, with the back-nine resembling a links course (fairways with lots of undulation, thicker rough, and wild greens) and the front closer to a regular event (wide fairways, a few hazards, nothing out of the ordinary).

Looking at past leaderboards, distance is a good feature to target, as winners (Thomas and Koepka) and top-10 finishers (Woodland, List, Ryan Palmer) are all very long off the tee. Golfers can hit long irons and woods off the tee on the back to make sure they stay in the fairway (and they also get the benefit of roll-out from the undulating fairways) so the naturally-long players will have a leg up, and driver can be uncorked on the front without worry. The only hazards to avoid off the tee are the deceptively-hard fairway bunkers, and some trees and water.

Approach shots will be hit into large bentgrass greens that feature lots of undulation, and putting will be rather difficult; the putting averages here over the past two seasons ranked as the sixth-hardest and second-hardest, and the one-putt and three-putt percentages second and first as well. Bad putters should have a step up more than they normally do this week, as good putters are closer to average here. If the weather is hot, the greens will be very tough to position on but in general are fairly easy to hit (75.02% last year).

Most approach shots will be in the 50-125 range, but scale up that up if looking at shorter players (Chez Reavie as an example).

Comparable courses/events:

Silverado Resort (Safeway Open) – Similar set-up in terms of length/par (72, 7166) and scoring averages last year. A high percentage of greens hit in regulation with very tough putting, although Silverado uses poa annua instead of the bentgrass found here.

Sheshan International (HSBC Championship) – Another no-cut event away from North America, with a similar setup. Scoring at Sheshan is comparable to the first time the CJ Cup was played at Nine Bridges but nothing like last year’s event. The bentgrass greens are tough for putting but are hit consistently.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Driving Distance
• Approach Shots: 50-125 Yards
• Putting Inside 10’
• Greens in Regulation

Top-Tier Golfers

Brooks Koepka ($11400): Last year’s winner in a birdie-fest rout, Koepka checks every box necessary to succeed here:

• 12^th in SG: Tee to Green
• 21^st in SG: Off the Tee / 10^th in Distance
• 11^th in SG: Approach / 14^th in Proximity from 50-125 Yards
• 11^th in Greens in Regulation (69.97%, nice)

He is coming off a missed cut last week – which could maybe keep his ownership low – but was his dominant self last year, with two wins and nine top-10s in 22 events played worldwide. He also finished T16 at the HSBC.

There’s not much else to mention when it comes to Brooks, beyond the garbage narrative that he only cares about majors; while his record in majors in phenomenal, he’s also a super-elite play in no-cut events.

Matthew Wolff ($8800): Known mostly for his wild swing and strong play off the tee, Wolff didn’t stand out in a small sample last year as he only gained 0.99 strokes OTT/rd, but he did manage a win   in only eight events last season. This year, Wolff’s only played in one event (Shriners’) but he finished T18 and gained 1.255 strokes off the tee per round which is a better example of how he should fare this season.

His approach play ranked him 54^th (+0.239/rd) last year and he hit 67.62% of greens in regulation, excelling from in close which is perfect given his length off the tee; he ranked a whopping fourth relative to par when approaching from 50-125 yards (-0.279) and his proximity of 16’2” placed fourth as well. Wolff scored well (25.1%) but especially on par-4s and -5s, averaging 3.96 on the -4s and 4.46 on the -5s.

Wolff’s putting was just enough to get by but nothing egregiously bad, as he had only nine three-putts on the season (29 measured rounds) which would’ve placed him fifth on tour if he had enough qualified rounds. His price tag is low enough that he should be able to pay it off easily, especially over a full four rounds.

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Keith Mitchell ($6600): Bentgrass greens aren’t quite the Bermuda that Killah Keith loves so much, but this is a course where putting isn’t so impactful thanks to the toughness of the greens; when everyone struggles, that gives players like Keith Mitchell a chance.

Last season, Mitchell managed to grab his first win thanks to his dominant play off the tee (6^th, +0.657SG/round) and strong scoring numbers – he was 64^th in Par-4 BoB% and 32^nd in Par-5 BoB%. His approach bounced up and down throughout the year in terms of Strokes Gained, but he still hit 67.3% of greens in regulation and gained strokes on approach (although marginally). His game closely mimics past winners like Koepka and JT, and he projects for a great week.

Mitchell just missed the cut at the Shriner’s but that was the first event he’d played since August. He finished T14 here last year but didn’t qualify for the HSBC or the first iteration of Nine Bridges so there’s not much history to consider.

Luke List ($7000): Coming off a T28 last week in Houston and a T13 the week prior, List is entering this week in good form and finished T5 here the one time he played the event (2018 season). That good form is important given his horrible 2019 season, as it helps demonstrate that what makes him such a good play this week hasn’t left him.

Last week, List managed to finish tenth in SG: OTT and 22^nd in SG: Approach, and the Shriner’s was similar at 17^th/62^nd respectively. That’s comparable to what he pulled off last season, when he ranked:

• 16^th in SG: Off the Tee (third in distance)
• 112^th in SG: Approach / 65.4% of GIR
• 13^th in Par-5 Birdie or Better %
• 8^th in Going for the Green %

His putting is terrible and his irons are inconsistent, but List is in the same boat as Mitchell in that the poor putting should be neutralized quite a bit. His strong play off the tee should make him a strong consideration.

 

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!