The First Tee – Canadian Open by Adam Daly

For the eighth time since Tiger Woods’ 2000 win – which, for those too young to remember, featured an incredible 6-iron out of a bunker over water on 18 – the Canadian Open comes back to Oakville, Ontario to Glen Abbey Golf & Country Club. Unfortunately, Canada continues to get the short end of the stick, with the Canadian Open coming off the back of the Open Championship which means a weaker field; beyond Dustin Johnson and RBC-sponsored Matt Kuchar, this event ends up like a glorified swing season event.

The Course

Glen Abbey is a 7,253 yard par-72 that sees some low-scoring winners (anywhere between -12 and -17 going back to 2008) that rewards golfers who can hit short approaches. It has four reachable par-5s that all sit between 516 and 558 yards, which in 2016 saw 73 eagles made. That number isn’t an aberration, with those numbers being similar in 2015. Eagle-makers and par-5 scorers will have a distinct advantage on these holes, and with the relative shortness of all four, distance won’t be necessary to score.

The four par-3s are where golfers can get into trouble here, with all but the 15^th averaging above par; this high scoring on par-3s is mostly due to the water that can realistically come into play over all four holes. Being deadly accurate on these holes is crucial, but luckily all of the par-3s sit between ~140 and ~200 yards, so golfers that are good with their mid- and short-irons should do well.

With average fairway widths, the Jack Nicklaus-design should have a higher percentage of fairways hit than the ~57% it’s seen historically, but with thin rough and not many trees lining the fairways it won’t be imperative to hit the fairway to post low scores.  Instead, the concern off the tee will be avoiding the water on five holes (not including par-3s), along with fairway bunkers that have been placed perfectly to cause problems for second shots. With it being a Nicklaus design, he always favoured holes that cut left to right off the tee.

On approach, most golfers will be hitting from the 125-150 yard range, with the course being relatively short for a par-72 and the longest par-4 only sitting at 485 yards. The shortest par-4 is the 417 yard 1^st, which is also the easiest par-4 on the course. If hitting out of the fairways golfers will have easy lies and generally good angles in, and hitting out of the thinner rough shouldn’t be impossible. The problem on approach at Glen Abbey is the small greens (~5600 sq. ft.), but with all the rain the area has gotten recently (and should see more of) the greens will be very receptive and relatively easy to hit.

One note on weather: historically, the weather leading into the Canadian Open has been excellent, and the greenskeepers have been able to keep the fairways very firm and fast. Don’t expect those exact conditions this week.

The bunkers that surround the greens (as well as in the fairways) were re-done after the 2015 iteration of the Canadian Open, and they got a lot of blow-back from golfers at the 2016 event – there was less than the minimum required amount of sand in lots of bunkers, making bunker shots tough at best and unplayable at worst. Expect that feedback to be adjusted for this year, but that the bunkers will still play tough.

Once on the bentgrass greens, golfers will have a fairly straight-forward time putting the ball. There’s little undulation, and they play at an average-to-slightly-above-average speed of 11.5-12 on the stimpmeter. With an average proximity to the hole of 33 feet but an average of only 1.58 putts per hole (last four full events), Glen Abbey shows to be a relatively simple course once on the greens.

Stats

 

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Off-The-Tee
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Par-5 Birdie or Better %
• Greens in Regulation %
• Scrambling %
• Par-3 Scoring
• Bogey Avoidance

 

The Golfers

Patrick Cantlay ($8100) – There’s a lot to like statistically from the top of the price board on DraftKings this week, but with the bulk of the stars coming back from across the pond at The Open, Cantlay offers a lot of the same upside at a much cheaper price. Fair warning is that he will be highly-owned as the Twitter darling of DFS, but making him the cornerstone of a lineup still allows a lot of room for a higher-priced golfer, or the ability to differentiate by going more balanced.

The caveat with Cantlay is that he hasn’t played an official round since the Memorial at the start of June (T35). The UCLA grad with a terribly sad career to date (seriously, google it) has been dynamite since his real coming-out party at the AT&T Pro-Am back in February, with a solo 2^nd and T3 to go along with two more top-25 finishes, while making a perfect seven cuts in seven events.

Because Cantlay has only 22 measured rounds on Tour, he’s not “qualified” to rank on the official PGA Tour site, but once he does his numbers will show just how elite he is – his SG: Tee to Green of 1.161 would place him 14^th between Justin Rose and Louis Oosthuizen, and his birdie average of 4.08 ranks him as an elite top-10 scorer on Tour. He’s not the longest off the tee but he doesn’t struggle, hitting a more than respectable average drive of 294.5, and he hits enough fairways (63.75%) to consistently put himself in contention.

Cantlay has shown to be a wizard on the greens this year, gaining 0.421 strokes with the putter (T27) and one-putting a very solid 39% of the time. That along with his overall play from tee to green has helped him to a Birdie or Better % of 23.38 which would slot him in 9^th just after Jon Rahm – given how important scoring is for DK purposes and the fact that it’s the number one counting stat this week, that number is a nice one to look at.

Value Picks (Below $7600):

• Seamus Power ($6800): The Olympian has had a relatively under-the-radar coming-out party this year, with only five missed cuts in 20 events. He’s gained strokes to the field from tee to green in all but three of his last eight events, and has been extremely solid on approach. He still struggles off the tee at times, but never enough to hurt (his worst SG: OTT on the year is -3.4) – this is mostly due to poor driving accuracy. On a course where not less than average hit the fairway, that will be mitigated a bit this week, and with his incredible par-5 scoring (BoB on 48.66% of par-5s), look for him to quietly make a top-20 at a cheap price.
• Chez Reavie ($7500): Long a Chez apologist, this course always sets up well for the 2008 winner in a lot of ways – the one downside from him is his par-5 scoring (153^rd in P5BoB% this year). He’s missed one cut here in five tries since his win in ’08, and has had a pretty stellar year to date with three top-10s (two T4, one T8) and having made five straight cuts. Reavie is consistently deadly accurate off the tee, an above average putter, and he crushes the world with a short iron in his hands (4^th from 125-150, 30^th from 100-125). He’s more known as a par-4 scorer, but Reavie is also demolishing par-3s this year (2.98 scoring average, 6^th) and with four tough par-3s that will be crucial.
• Brendan Hagy ($6900): Although not a perfect fit, at $6900 Hagy has a lot to offer in terms of upside – especially when it comes to DraftKings scoring. Hagy is a par-5 animal (22^nd in P5BoB%), and has the third most eagles on Tour (10) in only 57 measured rounds; Hagy typically scores by being the longest driver out there, currently averaging 313 yards off the tee. Although it’s not an impact stat in relation to finish position, distance has a very strong relationship to birdie-making, which will be important on an easy course. The one area where Hagy has struggled immensely is on approach, and that’s essentially the reason his price is where it is – he sits 182^nd and loses strokes to the field. Hagy could be this week’s Luke List, who doesn’t finish well but scores tremendously.

The Fade – the fade is dead. Long live the fade.

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open