The First Tee – Byron Nelson Championship

This Week

The Course

The Byron Nelson used to take place at TPC Las Colinas but is now hosted at Trinity Forest in Dallas, so ignore any history at this event prior to last year when the move first took place. Trinity Forest is a wild change from Las Colinas (and in fact it’s very different from most weeks on tour) as it’s a wiiiiiiiide open links course – last year, golfers hit the fairway 79.5% of the time – that plays incredibly easy; the birdie average here last year was 4.17 per round (fifth-most), it saw the second-most greens in regulation, and the winning score was -23 with the cut coming at -4.

Trinity is a longish course at a hair under 7,400 yards as a par-71; the three par-5s are between 552 and 630 yards and there are two par-4s that play above 500 yards and scoring tends to have an impact there, but the bulk of the par-4s are shorter (below 450) so distance off the tee isn’t necessary here even being a long course. The undulation and firm fairways should add some roll on tee shots (especially to those with low ball flights) which will also help the short knockers; at the same time, the width of the fairways means people can uncork the driver on most holes – 56 yards across at the 300-yard marker on average and only three holes where the width is below 40 yards.

While the fairways are wide, there are no trees to protect the course from the elements which means wind can have a big influence. There’s really no primary cut of rough here, tee shots that miss the fairway will often end up into the sections of wildflowers and tall grass that surround the fairways – hitting into this is basically a one-stroke penalty and a chip-out at best.

Approach shots here will reward good wedge players (50-125 yards out) as most tee shots will go long, with the average driving distance sitting at 296 yards last year. There could be tough lies given the undulation in the fairways, and any misses could find some brutal greenside bunkers or waste areas.

The Bermuda greens feature lots of sloping and undulation and should be very slow (always weather-dependant of course), so players who don’t putt well on a typical week should be able to keep up with the field on the greens this week.

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-The-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Driving Distance
• Approaches from 50-125 Yards
• Par-4 Scoring
• Three-Putt Avoidance

Top-Tier Golfers

Brooks Koepka ($11400): While this week isn’t a major, Brooks still sets up very well for success at Trinity Forest: the wide-open fairways and set-up are very similar to where Brooks won his first major (Erin Hills), and his best-in-class play off the tee will give him a marked advantage given the easy scoring nature of Trinity. Playing him this week is betting his play over the last 50 rounds is more indicative of his talent than his last 36, as Brooks hasn’t stood out much recently although he did finish T2 at Augusta.

Brooks is stupid long (6^th, 300.5 All Drives average) and even in a “down” year is scoring at a great rate of 4.33 birdies/round and 25.56% BoB. His iron play hasn’t stood out as anything special considering his talent, as he’s ranked 48^th in SG: Approach, but he’s still hitting 69.6% of greens in reg. His putting stroke has been abysmal this year which has held him back, but he’s converting birdie putts at a great rate (34.05%), it’s just the lag putts that have cost him with bogeys.

Keith Mitchell ($9100): His price tag is creeping up, but Mitchell not only has very strong form coming into the event (T8 last week and only one missed cut since March), but he also finished T3 here last year. Mitchell ranks 25^th from tee to green this season with the bulk of that coming off the tee (+.681, 11^th) and strong numbers on approach (+.408, 38^th). Where Mitchell really struggles is the greens, both putting and around – he’s losing strokes in both categories this year, although he tends to play better on Bermuda greens.

Mitchell’s distance is a big factor in what makes him such a strong play this week, because it’s helped him to a 4.12 birdie/round average and a whopping 24.07% BoB (29^th). He’s very efficient on the longer holes which will set him up well on the par-5s and the two long par-4s, and he’ll be able to pull hybrid off the tee to place the ball better.

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Kevin Tway ($7600): Even without looking at his ninth-place finish here last year, Tway statistically rates out very well for this course at his price point, although his form on the season isn’t much to look at; he’s missed 7/10 cuts in stroke play events this year but did manage a T36 at the Masters and T13 at the Zurich in team play in his last two events played so he may be finding his form.

Tway is a big hitter (20^th on All Drives) who struggles to find the fairway typically, so the extra-wide setup here should fit his eye. That distance has helped him to the 51^st-best Par-5 scoring and has helped him find the green 67.59% of the time even as his irons have struggled a bit. The big concern with Tway is his putter – which should be neutralized a bit with the greens here – and his proximity with a wedge, which is a dismal 132^nd (19’11”).

Trey Mullinax ($7600): On weeks where Brooks and Keith Mitchell are in play, Mullinax will be in play as the bargain version of both: long off the tee (11^th), decent iron play (34^th in SG: Approach), and horrible around and on the greens (164^th and 184^th respectively.)

Last week at Quail Hollow was a good example of what can be expected from Mullinax, as he at ranked first from tee to green after two rounds but couldn’t buy a putt and finished T50; that T50 was his 12^th made cut in 13 tries this year though, so he offers some safety even as he’ll continue to miss putts.

From the fairway, Mullinax has the third-best proximity to the hole (29’4”) over 510 attempts, which is three feet better than average, and he’s especially good with a wedge in his hand. He’ll be sure to struggle on the par-3s as his mid-irons are a weak point, but he should be able to score tremendously well and find a lot of birdies which is great for his price point.

 

 

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!