The First Tee – BMW Championship by Adam Daly

With the NFL back and the PGA into the death throes of the FedEx playoffs, it would be easy to call it a season – but there are still DraftKings contests which means money to be made, so don’t give up just yet! This week is the first of back-to-back no-cut events (top 70), which means more focus should be on stars & scrubs lineup builds.

This Week

THE COURSE

The BMW Championship is taking place at Conway Farms Golf Club in Chicago’s North Shore, for the third time since Zach Johnson’s win in 2013. That unfortunately means very little professional course history (Jason Day won in 2015), but the US Mid-Amateur was also held here in 2012 as well as the 2009 Western Amateur; notables that finished well in 2009 that are here this week include James Hahn (winner), Bud Cauley and Patrick Reed (semi-finals). This is another fairly easy track at such a short overall distance, shown in Day and Johnson’s winning scores of -22 and -16, respectively.

As a note on 2013, the weather was wet which made greens and fairways more receptive, but also windy which turned it into a scrambling free-for-all. Make sure to check weather before lock, and bump Scrambling % up if the wind’ll be up.

Conway Farms sits at 7,198 yards as a par-71, with three par-5s between 575 and 600 yards that saw the bulk of the scoring in 2015: 13 eagles and 343 birdies, so the longer distance doesn’t have much of an impact but these holes will be crucial to score on. Avoiding trouble on the par-3s and the longer par-4s will also be key, as every par-4 below 450 yards played below par – there are six such holes here, which includes the 334-yard driveable 15^th, which saw four eagles in 2015 and two in 2013.

The fairway widths on this course really reward longer hitters, ideally golfers should be driving it 300 to take full advantage of the fairways as this is the key distance where holes are typically the most open. NOTE: Distance is an advantage, but the majority of golfers lay up or hit woods/irons off the tee. There are some narrow areas on the course that can be extra punitive, with fescue rough that can make second shots next-to-impossible, but accuracy doesn’t rate highly in the two years the event has been played here.

Approaching the average-sized bentgrass greens will be a fairly easy test, with flat fairways and fairly receptive greens. There are a few false fronts and sloped greens which could cause some issues, but Conway Farms has average Greens in Regulations hit (~65%) and won’t cause too many problems. There are some tough green-side bunkers that will cause some problems. With most golfers hitting short off the tees, long approach shots are key, so focus on anywhere outside 175 yards.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off-The-Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Greens in Regulation %
• Par-5 Scoring
• Driving Distance
• Bogey Avoidance
• Approach: 175-200, Approach >200 Yards

The Golfers

Jason Day ($9600) – As a past champion here at a reasonable price, Day will get some looks as he will fit in every type of build this week – either paired with a DJ/Spieth in a stars and scrubs model, or as the top of a balanced lineup. Day’s on a five made cut streak with no finish worse than T27 (including two top-10s), and also finished T4 here in 2013.

For a player that struggles with accuracy, Day still sits 6^th in Birdie average (as well as Birdie or Better%) and even more importantly, 4^th in Par-5 Birdie or Better%. A large part of what Day should be doing this week is laying up off the tee to try and put himself in better spots, because there are only five golfers on Tour better than the Aussie from outside 200 yards.

If the wind does get hectic here, Day is in a class by himself (along the lines of Phil, circa not this year), although his raw scrambling stats don’t bear that out. If Day ends up in a bunker, he’s shown time after time an innate ability to save par or better, and is one of the few golfers in the field where the wind wouldn’t change their play one way or the other.

Although his putter has cooled this year from what it has been in terms of strokes gained, Day is still hitting 41.67% of one-putts (20^th) and sits 4^th in BoB conversion putts.

Value Picks (Below $7600):

• Bud Cauley ($7500): Unlike the fade (which is back!), Bud Cauley is a golfer with some amateur history here that actually has the stats to back up a good repeat performance. After making the semi-finals in ’09, Cauley hasn’t been back here since, but has performed admirably over the last few months – a T12 mixed with some middling made cuts. Cauley is one of the better shorter hitters on approach on Tour, so he’ll need to pull driver more often than the field to maximize his strengths, but he sits 13^th in SG: Approach and 34^th in SG: Tee to Green which are above average-to-elite numbers. He struggles on par-3s which could hurt him on a course where the par-3s are harder than typical, but is an excellent par-4 and par-5 scorer who has eagle potential if he can get a putt to drop.

If Cauley can flash the form he had shown in April of this season, he’ll be in the mix to make it to next week and more than pay off his price point.

• Other value picks:
  • Ryan Moore ($7400): Performs at his best on short tracks. His W/D at the Dell might repress ownership for a golfer that consistently hits fairways and gains on approach.
  • Adam Hadwin ($7100): After a tough stretch that lasted a few months, Hadwin got back on track with a T13 at the Dell. Not a long hitter, so like Moore he’ll be in prime conditions to succeed – his great putting will consistently give him opportunities to score.

The Fade:

• James Hahn ($7300): As a former winner of the Western Amateur here as well as a T32 back in 2015, Hahn has good course history for his price point, but is entering the week with some poor recent form: T75, MC, MC, but before that finished T13 at Quail Hollow and T10 in Canada. In a field loaded with stars, Hahn’s statistical merits are few and far between, and he’s vastly over-priced. There’s a small chance he sees ownership from his Am win, which makes him an easy fade.

Good luck this week! You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey if you have any questions, and my DMs are always open.