The First Tee – BMW Championship

Third leg of the FedEx Cup, which means the top-70 in FEC standings – although Daniel Berger withdrew, so just 69 entrants – will be playing this week, in a no-cut event. Make sure to keep an eye on DraftKings’ OUT notations, as they released pricing with some players not in the field.

The Course

This week’s event moves to Aronimink in Philadelphia, where the Tour has previously hosted events in 2010 and 2011 for the AT&T National. Unfortunately, the course has been revamped completely since that time, so there’s essentially zero course history; on most course re-vamps, the argument could be made that the course will play comparable to previous versions, but the course has changed completely since 2011.

Aronimink is a par-70 that plays to an average length at 7,190 yards, but it will play shorter than that thanks to the design (more on that below.) Only three of the twelve par-4s are above 450 yards – although the 15th sits long at 500 – and three are at 401 or below, which would suggest par-4 efficiency 400-450 as a good stat to consider this week. Three of the par-3s are above 200, and prior to the re-design, played extremely tough; although the par-3s play slightly downhill, the holes will still pose a problem for naturally shorter hitters, and walking away with par is nothing to scoff at.

The many trees that lined this course before the re-design have mostly been eliminated, and the course offers a ton of different angles to the pin with wide fairways, which will shorten the course dramatically for players with strong accuracy off the tee – ball placement for second shots will be one of the more under-looked aspects of play this week, so focus on SG: OTT and distance from edge of the fairway. Beyond hitting the right angles off the tee, the main concern off the tee will be the many, many, many bunkers on this course; a touch over 170 bunkers, to be more accurate. While the fairway bunkers themselves aren’t especially deep, players that typically struggle in sand are best avoided this week. Other than the bunkers though, there’s not much in the way of hazards to avoid, as the trees on the course are spaced widely apart and there’s almost no water on the course. The rough is thin in the first cut, but tall fescue grasses will cause trouble on approach shots if tee shots get too wild.

There will be lots of uphill approach shots this week, so avoiding bad lies in the fairway will have an impact – unfortunately there isn’t a great stat that would point to players that can avoid that, and hitting divots happens, but you could look at lower launch angles as an option if you were split between a few golfers. With a lot of the field most likely choosing to hit driving iron or woods – although DJ, Brooks, etc. can probably choose to pull out the big sticks to really cut angles down – the average proximity to the hole should be in the 150-175 range.

The greens here are larger than they were in 2010 and 2011, again part of the course re-design. There’s a lot of sloping and multiple tiers on the greens, so hitting the right level of the green is key to making a good number; the bentgrass greens are around average speed and should be soft thanks to some rain before the tournament and should reward the putters that are typically worse putters.

 

The Stats

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Approach Shots 150-175 Yards
• Distance from the Edge of the Fairway
• Par-4 Efficiency, 400-450 Yards
• GIR % from Other Than Fairway

Top-Tier Golfer

Tony Finau ($9400)

Pros: Better putting on bentgrass than smooth Bermuda, so his 82^nd-ranked putter should see some mild improvement. A beast off the tee (T20 in SG: OTT) thanks to his length, Finau can cut some of the doglegs to shorten the track, and he manages to hit the green in regulation 60% of the time when he misses the fairway (1^st). Strong approach game, and hits 70.16% of greens in regulation overall.

Cons: The off the tee accuracy is definitely iffy – although the fairways are wide – which could be a concern, because hitting out of the thick stuff or bunkers is tough here. His putting could easily revert to peak-Finau levels. His cost is pushing it as the 8^th-highest price.

Dustin Johnson ($11600)

Pros: Best golfer in the world, and has the best game off the tee which will have a big impact this week. Almost nothing left to say about DJ at this point, but last week’s performance – while not his best, he still waltzed into a top-10 – shows that he can turn it up and pour in birdies and eagles when there’s even the smallest amount of pressure.

Cons: Accuracy off the tee isn’t ideal, and he’s not at the same level (relative to his skillset) when hitting out of sand. Price is prohibitive, but it’s a no-cut so he’s most likely worth it.

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Henrik Stenson ($7600): Injury is a big question mark, but the Iceman needs to prove his worth to get to the Ryder Cup, and this course sets up for his game very well. He’s a deadly accurate off the tee – 1^st in Driving Accuracy and 6^th in Distance From Edge of the Fairway – and will be able to position himself nicely for his approach shots. While Stenson will be hitting it short, as he’s wont to do, he ranks second in SG: Approach and has hit the most greens in regulation on the PGA Tour.

He’s never been much of a par-3 player (3.08 average) which is scary on a course with such tough par-3 holes, but he’s above average on par-4s (63^rd in BoB, 7^th in Scoring) and while he doesn’t make a ton of eagles, he’s also consistent on the par-5s. Stenson’s putting this year has been awful, losing 0.84 strokes per round, but I would expect that to bounce back a bit on the easier greens.

One note: Stenson could be a popular play this week given how out of whack his price tag is compared to his true talent level.

Emiliano Grillo ($7400): Grillo, again? Yes, Grillo again.

Pros: Super accurate off the tee, 8^th in accuracy (69.82%) and T11 in Distance from Edge of the Fairway (21’3”). Has been very strong tee to green all year, has great recent form after last week, and has figured out how to putt this year. Averages 3.89 birdies per round and has the best par-3 scoring with 2.97, birdieing 18% of the time.

Cons:  Awful, awful, awful when he misses the green or fairway, so he does make his fair number of bogeys. Struggles on longer holes thanks to a short driving distance, and if he’s beyond 10’ on the greens he won’t be dropping birdie putts. Bad on approaches below 100 yards.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!