The First Tee – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

This Week

The early swing of the season always brings too many multi-course events, and unfortunately this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am fits that bill; there are three courses at this event, with ShotLink data only available at Pebble Beach (PB) which gets played twice. There’s a 54-hole cut so this week can get played with a little more abandon – targeting big birdie/bogey-makers is fine as they’ll get 54 holes at minimum – but in general, this should be a lighter week in the season bankroll-wise.

As always with course rotation events though, Showdown and weekend slates can be very profitable, so make sure to check our rolling data after each round and FGI members can read the Weekend Warriors article Friday night.

THE COURSES

The three courses this week are Monterey Peninsula (MP), Spyglass Hill (SH) and the aforementioned Pebble Beach; they have a lot in common, as they’re all short coastal courses with wide fairways and small greens. If the weather holds up, this week usually sees winning scores in the -15 to -20 range, with the cut below par (-1 to -3 should be expected). The greens at all three courses are poa annua, and the greens themselves are all quite small which is the one defense this event has outside of the weather; the greens range from 3500 sq. ft. to 4500 sq. ft.

Spyglass Hill (SH)

Spyglass is a very short par-72, officially listed at 7035 yards this year, with only two par-4s that play outside 450 yards and a couple scoreable par-5s although the real scoring here takes place on the par-3s which are all very easy to make birdie on relative to other par-3s. Eagles are rare and birdie is made on less than 40% of par-5s.

This course has tight fairways although it’s more protected from the elements, and typically golfers will club way down to stay in the good grass off the tee; even though the fairways are narrow, this course sees around ~65% of fairways hit which is above-average.

People tend to struggle on the greens here, but that’s the same at all three courses given the tough poa grass that can get extremely bumpy. Players on this course should usually be avoided for Showdown unless the weather is bad with high winds.

Monterey Peninsula (MP)

The easiest course of the three by around two strokes, Monterey is a tiny par-71 (6958 yards) with five par-3s and four par-5s, and it has incredibly easy-to-hit fairways (70%+). In poor weather, golfers will club down here, but otherwise this course fits the bomb-and-gouge style of golf that rewards big hitters off the tee and good wedge play.

The greens are again a nightmare for putting, so even with 70%+ greens in regulation across the board, scoring is still a bit muted due to the toughness of the greens.

Pebble Beach Golf Links

The last course is the most important, because it gets played twice (fourth round plus the rotation) and is the only course with real ShotLink data. Like the other two, this is another short course, only 6816 yards as a par-72. Only one par-4 plays outside 450 yards, and the par-5s are all short (below 573 yards).

Pebble Beach has more out-of-bounds and hazard areas so play off the tee tends to be much more conservative here, as demonstrated by the laughably-short tee shot averages; over the past five years, PB has seen the shortest tee shots three times, the second-shortest once, and the fifth-shortest once. The flip side to that is that over 70% of fairways are hit, and because of the shortness of the course, golfers don’t have to uncork driver.

Even with the short tee shots, wedges will be the most common clubs on approach, with golfers hitting from 50-125 yards out the bulk of the time. They’ll be hitting into the small greens which, just like Spyglass and Monterey, are incredibly hard to find success on.

Comparable courses/events:

Hamilton Golf & C.C. (RBC Canadian Open) – A short par-70 with comparable scoring averages to Spyglass Hill and Monterey and similar fairways. Hamilton’s got small greens that feature a bent/poa mix, and putting is comparable at both courses.

Harbour Town (RBC Heritage) – Harbour Town is similar to Pebble as both are coastal courses with tiny greens. Fairways at both are tight enough, and driver stays in the bag although Harbour Town is a little longer than Pebble so approach yardages differ. The other main change is that Harbour Town has pretty clean Bermuda, so putting at Pebble will be much harder.

 

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Putting
• Off the Tee
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Par-3 Scoring
• Approach Shots: 50-125 Yards
• Overall Putting Average
• Driving Distance – All Drives

 

Top-Tier Golfers

Jason Day ($10300)

Form: Between all his injuries, Day has only played one recent event (the Farmers where he finished T16). His last event played prior to the Farmers was back in November when he missed the cut at Mayakoba, but he also finished T22 and T31 in the no-cut Asian events during the swing season. With all his injury stuff, Day has had a bunch of weeks off a number of times through his career, and he never seems worse for it so it’s nothing to be concerned about.

History & Comp. History: With one of the best course histories that hasn’t recorded a win, Day will no doubt see some ownership this week, because he’s been dynamite when playing the Pebble Beach pro-am: he has eight finishes of T14 or better which includes a run of T4-T2-T5 over the past three years, and he’s never missed a cut at this event. JDay has never played at Hamilton but he’s had good showings at the RBC Heritage, finishing MC-T22-T9-T33-T23 in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2016 respectively.

Stats (2019): Day was atrocious with his irons last year on paper, losing 0.83 strokes/round on approach, but he still hit the 16^th-most greens in regulation and he lost strokes because his tee shot positioning was usually so strong. Day gained the 13^th-most strokes off the tee mostly thanks to length, and he was a whopping 0.242 below par when hitting from 50-125 yards out (T7). He’s an elite putter who struggled a bit last year in overall putting average, but finished the year 30^th in SG: Putting.

Rolling Stats (L16): Day’s last 16 rounds are very ugly, but the Aussie has been his usual injured self, which could impact the numbers; the back injury was probably worse than normal, given he skipped the President’s Cup on home soil. All that to be said, Day ranks a brutal 115^th in SG: T2G, based on poor approach (138^th) and play around the green (82^nd). Day’s 60^th in the field in SG: Putting, which is bad for Day’s normal levels, but not horrific. Day is still a very strong scorer and one of the few in the field with eagle potential.

 

Dustin Johnson ($11600)

Form: DJ is coming off a solo second at the Saudi International last week, which was his first event played since the Tournament of Champions (T7). Prior to that, DJ’s last PGA Tour events were the FedEx Cup playoffs which were so long ago to almost not be relevant; if interested he did finish T29, T57 and T24 in the playoffs starting from the Northern Trust. Long breaks aren’t of concern for DJ though, as he went three weeks with no golf before finishing solo second at the PGA last year and he had a number of two+ week breaks.

History & Comp. History: The other golfer with an elite history here, Johnson has two wins (although they came back in 2009 and 2010) and only one missed cut in 11 tries. He also has six other finishes of T7 or better, and he’s shot over par in only 11 rounds (out of 46). He’s finished T28 and T16 at Harbour Town but also missed the cut twice, and finished T20 in his only shot at Hamilton.

Stats (2019): DJ sat eighth in SG: Tee to Green thanks to dominant play off the tee (fourth), but his approach lagged behind his normal levels, ranking 47^th on tour. He continued to hit it a mile off the tee and score at elite rates, but he struggled from the key 50-125-yard range, ranking T132 in proximity and T93 relative to par.

Rolling Stats (L16): DJ’s L16 are also pretty bad, sitting 88^th in SG: Tee to Green based on poor approach (120^th). Unlike Day, DJ’s putter’s been pretty bad as well – 119^th in the field – so there’s definite concerns about his recent play from a stats perspective. He’s also struggled scoring (3.68 birds/rd) but it’s important to remember DJ’s last 16 measured rounds all come in the playoffs last summer.

Honourable mention: Viktor Hovland ($9100)

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Patrick Rodgers ($7400)

Form: P-Rod has had a fantastic four events since the year turned over, as he’s yet to miss a cut this year and has two finishes of T16 or better already. He’s played the WMPO, Farmers, American Express and Sony Open, and his two most recent finishes were his best two (T16 and T9). He’s had ten rounds in the 60s in his past 16 rounds played.

History & Comp. History: Although he missed the cut last year, Rodgers finished T8 in 2018 at -10. He was done in with one really bad round last year, shooting a second-round 78, but managed to bounce back with a 68. Rodgers has no history at either Harbour Town nor Hamilton G.C.

Stats (2019): Rodgers was a big hitter off the tee who couldn’t find a fairway – which sets up well given he can club down to driving irons – who putt very well last year (22^nd). Unfortunately, he struggled with wedges a bit, having the 136^th-best proximity from 50-125 yards out. For a long hitter, he also couldn’t hit many birdies, connecting only 21.13% of the time.

Rolling Stats (L16): Having completely turned his game around on the greens over the past few years, Rodgers’ last 16 rounds feature some dynamite putting (third-best) and obviously strong play off the tee – he’s known for his distance, which he ranks third in and he’s gained the 30^th-most strokes off the tee overall. He’s usually a touch above average in terms of scoring, and that checks out as he ranks 48^th in birdies/round.

 

Maverick McNealy ($7300)

Form: Finishes of 15 and T37 to start 2020 off are great signs for McNealy, who accomplished the feats at the Farmers and the Amex respectively. Prior to that, McNealy had a fantastic swing season where he made six straight cuts (so now has a streak of eight!), with finishes between T17 – T53.

History & Comp. History: It’s not a great history at Pebble Beach for McNealy, who’s 0-fer-1 after going 74-70-70 in 2018. Like Rodgers, McNealy has no history at either of the comp. courses, but that’s to be expected for a rookie.

Stats (2019): McNealy didn’t reach the required rounds in 2019 to qualify and only played 24 measured rounds in 2020, so just read his rolling stats instead.

Rolling Stats (L16): Not only has McNealy been good at avoiding bogeys (second in the field) which comes in handy at coastal tracks where bogeys can sink you, but he’s 31^st in birdies/round at 4.06, and is hitting 70% of greens in reg. His SG data has been very solid especially relative to his price point, as he’s 27^th from tee to green and 12^th in SG: Putting.

Honourable mention: Chesson Hadley ($7100)

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!