The First Tee – Arnold Palmer Invitational

This Week

The Arnold Palmer Invitational takes place at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge, and is a small-field (~120) invitational where regular cut rules (T65 after 36 holes) still apply. This tournament usually has a winner in the low-to-mid teens, but weather-dependent can play quite tough like last week’s Honda Classic, so finding the winner is key to success here as opposed to just birdie-makers. The cut hovers at or above par, so bogey avoidance is something to target here.

THE COURSE

Bay Hill is a long par-72 – listed at 7454 yards this year – that’s a tough test of golf, as mentioned above. It has four very easy par-5s, sitting between 511 and 590 yards, which last year saw 32 combined eagles and were the four easiest holes on the course so scoring there is crucial; the four par-3s are the reverse as they’re all tough, long-ish (longer than 199 yards), and played above par. There are three par-4s that play at 400 yards or below and are key to score on, because the remaining seven par-4s all play above par.

The fairways here are wide on average (33 yards across between 275 and 300 yards) which is boosted slightly by the wide-open par-5 sixth, and get hit at a strong clip unless the wind reallllllly picks up; last year was an anomaly in 63.1% hit, given the four previous years saw fairways hit at 66%, 66%, 69% and 70%. The rough is very thick here so any misses can be a nightmare, and there’s also some very hard fairway bunkers without even considering water hazards which come into play on eight holes.

Most golfers will hit less than driver here, as there’s a ton of undulation and sloping in the fairways which gives added roll-out to the ball, which explains both why the distance here is short on average (about 288 yards) and why so many fairways get hit. That means the bulk of approach shots will be above 150 yards.

Getting to the greens here is tough enough, especially in bad weather, as last year only 57.64% were hit (fifth-hardest on tour), but even greens that get hit don’t offer up great birdie opportunities: the average proximity to the pin is outside 38’ over the past five years, one of the ten worst numbers of all PGA courses.

The greens are Tifeagle Bermuda and feature a lot of sloping and run-off areas, which is a large part of why sticking the ball close is hard (unless the course is soaked with rain). The greens should be more receptive than the last few years – the course was re-grassed in 2016 so the four years of maturation should mean the greens aren’t concrete anymore – and they’re average in size. Typically putting here is relatively easy, with an overall putting average of just 1.56 last year (1.59 on average over the past five years).

Comparable courses/events:

Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Championship) – Quail is a longer track than Bay Hill, as it’s a par-71 at 7500 yards, but scoring to par is similar at both courses and longer approach shots are a big key; the greens at Quail are very hard to hit in regulation and are also fast, firm Bermuda.

Innisbrook (Valspar) – Another Florida track with fast/firm Bermuda greens and less-than-driver off the course, the course lengths are relatively close, and scoring is comparable. Birdies are rare at both tracks, so taking advantage of par-5s is crucial at both as is bogey avoidance.

 

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Proximity to the Hole
• Par-5 Scoring
• Approach Shots: 175-200 Yards, 200+ Yards
• Bogey Avoidance
• Birdie or Better %

 

Top-Tier Golfers

Rory McIlroy ($12200)

Form: Since finishing T26 at the Dunhill Links in September, Rory’s finishes in order: T2 (Japan), T3 (Zozo), win (WGC HSBC), fourth (DP World Tour), T3 (Farmers), T5 (Genesis), and solo fifth at WGC Mexico. Only five of his last 24 rounds have been in the 70s.

History & Comp. History: With no missed cuts in five times at this event, Rory’s been his usual fantastic self at Bay Hill. His worst finish here is T27 back in 2016, and his other finishes are T11, T4, a win in 2018, and T6 last year.

Rory’s obviously had tremendous success at Quail Hollow (prior to the renovations when it got lengthened), winning it twice and picking up a runner-up, and has finished top-10 there every time he’s made the cut (6/7). He’s been bad at Copperhead in a tiny sample, missing the cut the only time he’s played it.

Stats (2019): Rory’s accuracy was about the only major issue last year, because he only hit 61.82% of fairways (104^th). The only other (regular) categories that Rory ranked worse than that in were proximity from 50-125 yards, putts from outside 25’, and total hole outs. That’s out of every category the PGA Tour tracks with a big enough sample.

For the SG stats this week, he ranked: 12^th in SG Approach, first in SG Off the Tee, 24^th in SG Putting and 19^th in SG Around the Green. For key stats, he ranked 29^th in proximity to the hole, 12^th in P5 Scoring, sixth and first in approach prox. from 150-175 and 175-200.

L16 Rounds: Given the form Rory’s shown lately, it’s no surprise that his rankings are tremendous: fifth in GIR%, second in driving accuracy(!), second and fourth in birdies and eagles made respectively, fourth in bogeys avoided, and he leads the field in SG: Tee to Green.

 

Viktor Hovland ($8000)

Form: Hopefully the Puerto Rico curse isn’t something you believe in, because Hovland won that two weeks ago and then (gasp) missed the cut at the Honda last week. His form’s been a mixed bag, with three missed cuts in his last six but has picked up the win in PR, a T38 at Pebble Beach, and T23 in Dubai.

History & Comp. History: Since Hovland was a rookie who popped in halfway through last year, he only has the only shot at Bay Hill but he finished T40 in shooting -1. He’s never played at Copperhead or Quail Hollow, so there’s not a ton of history to consider. Unfortunately, that lack of history won’t matter ownership-wise because he’s under-priced at only $8000.

Stats (2019): His rookie year only had 29 measured rounds, so Hovland’s stat rankings aren’t official, but they were fantastic: first in proximity, first in GIR%, third in SG: Approach, and 24.85% birdie or better percentage. His putting was just okay at best and actively bad at worst, but he’s very strong at par-4s and par-5s and managed to score even with inconsistent putting.

L16 Rounds: Hovland’s scoring’s been very solid recently, with 4.25 made birdie-or-better/rd over his past 16, but he’s had some problems with doubles (0.313). His stroke gained data has been absolutely stunning, ranking fourth-best in the field with his ball-striking (fourth off the tee, 13^th on approach) and his putting has been strong as well. He’s struggled a bit to get to the green in regulation so far, ranking 41^st.

Honourable mention: Xander Schauffele ($10000) and Marc Leishman ($8600)

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Matthew NeSmith ($6800)

Form: Since 2020 turned over, NeSmith hasn’t missed a cut (six events played), but even better is that his worst finish is last week’s T38; among those is a T6 at the Puerto Rico Open, a T11 at Pebble Beach, and a T17 at the Amex. His made cut streak extends back to the Mayakoba Classic.

History & Comp. History: Given NeSmith’s rookie status, he’s never played Bay Hill…or Innisbrook…or Quail Hollow. So that’s a negative, if you believe in course history.

Stats (2019): Did not play PGA Tour in 2019, so no stats available. His 2020 season is only 30 rounds, so to avoid too much overlap just read the L16 Rounds section.

L16 Rounds: NeSmith’s been a dominant player with his irons recently, hitting 69.45% of greens in regulation (14^th-best) and gaining the third-most strokes on approach of the field; these numbers haven’t come against loser competition either given the tournaments he’s played in over his last 16 rounds. He hasn’t scored tremendously well (3.56 birdies/rd, 67^th) but avoids bogeys at a great clip and takes advantage of par-5s, which fits this course perfectly.

 

Abraham Ancer ($7800)

Form: Ancer’s last five tournaments (PGA and Euro Tour combined) have seen zero missed cuts, a solo second (at the Amex), a T6 in Saudi Arabia, and a T12 a couple weeks ago in the no-cut WGC event. His last missed cut came all the way back at the Shriners last October.

History & Comp. History: In his first and only time out at Bay Hill last year, Ancer shot 77-74 to miss the cut which is not an ideal history but should help mute his ownership. He does have better history at Copperhead/Innisbrook, finishing T16, but his performance at Quail Hollow has also been a one-and-done.

Stats (2019): Abraham Ancer last year gained the 44^th-most strokes tee to green mostly thanks to his play off the tee, because Ancer is incredibly accurate off the tee (10^th-best). His irons were also dialed in, as he had the 24^th-best proximity to the hole while hitting 66.79% of greens in regulation; more importantly, he was much better with mid-to-long irons than with wedges, because wedges don’t come into play as much at Bay Hill.

L16 Rounds: Over his past 16 rounds Ancer has very strong birdie numbers (4.438/rd) as well as bogey avoidance (2/rd), and has been accurate off the tee (38^th-best in the field) while hitting greens at a good clip (67.3%, 29^th). His SG numbers are phenomenal – especially relative to his price – as he’s gained the 18^th-most strokes from tee to green, thanks to +0.553/rd on approach.

Honourable mention: Maverick McNealy ($7400)

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!