The First Tee – Arnold Palmer Invitational

This Week

This week is an invitational, which means a field of only ~120 golfers but regular cut rules still apply. Stars & scrubs will be a popular build, as less than half the field gets eliminated as opposed to most weeks.

THE COURSE

Bay Hill is a par-72 that’s very long at 7419 yards, and like last week it’s a tough test of golf (although winning scores are historically better here): the cut has been above par in four of the past five years, and sitting in the double-digits below par is a top-5 finish most years.

The course has four short par-5s, between 511 and 574 yards, and three par-4s at or below 400 yards; the par-3s are all extremely long at 199+, and are crucial to success here – two of them are among the hardest (if not the hardest) holes on the course, while the other two still average above par. Over the years, there are only four-to-six holes that play under par here, with the rest of the course being a very tough test; the par-5s are key to building a birdie cushion, and the two short par-4s are the other scoring holes.

Overall the course has wide fairways on average (34 yards across on average at the 275 and 300-yard markers), but that’s exaggerated slightly by the wide-open par-5 6^th. Missing the fairways can be very penal, as the rough is very thick here (aiming for 3”), and there are some very tough angles to the green on misses – lots of doglegs here. Beyond that, water comes into play on eight holes, and the fairway bunkers are a lot deeper than what golfers would have seen last week.

The fairways have lots of slope and undulation which gives the ball a ton of extra roll-out in firm conditions, which is good for shorter hitters to get a bit closer to the hole, but makes it tougher to control keeping it away from the rough. Typically a lot of golfers will pull long irons, as the distance off the tee here on average is very short (in the ~280 yard range), which means a lot of approach shots outside 175 yards.

If the weather cooperates – this course is extremely reliant on good weather, as demonstrated by the 2017 outlier when the course got smashed with high winds – then golfers should be able to find the green in regulation around ~63% of the time. There’s a BIG difference here between just finding the green and having a birdie opportunity though, as Bay Hill historically has one of the highest numbers in terms of proximity to the hole: the average proximity is in the 37-40’ range, which in the past five years has ranked T13, T3, T8, T11, T8-toughest.

A large part of the proximity issues here is that the greens offer a big challenge, with lots of run-off areas and tons of sloping and different levels. They’re average in size, but play firm and fast – although they should be a touch easier than years past, since the greens were re-grassed in 2016, so the grass should have matured since then and be a touch more receptive. They’re TifEagle Bermuda and listed at 12.5” on the stimpmeter, although conditions may change that. With all the run-off areas that can force the ball into the fringe or greenside bunkers, scrambling is an impactful (although imperfect) stat to add into the mix.

STATS

The Strokes Gained stats to focus on in order (not including Tee to Green):

• Approach
• Off the Tee
• Putting
• Around the Green

Counting stats to focus on in order:

• Birdie or Better %
• Par-3 Scoring
• Par-5 Birdie or Better %
• Approach Shots: 175+ Yards
• Bogey Avoidance
• Scrambling %

Top-Tier Golfers

Rory McIlroy ($11400): Last year’s winner is the most expensive golfer in the field, but his history here is basically immaculate (1^st, T4, T27 and T11) and his form this season is fantastic: his last four events have seen finishes of solo 2, T4, T5 and T4. Stats-wise this year, Rory only has 15 measured rounds so his rankings need grain of salt, but he sits:

• 1^st Off the Tee / 2^nd in Distance (All Drives)
• 13^th in Birdie or Better %
• 25^th in overall Proximity / 27^th in Proximity Outside 200 Yards
• And most importantly, 1^st in SG: Tee to Green

His putting has been suspect so far, and his win here last year was propped up mostly by a career-best putting performance, but he’ll put himself in so many positions to score that he doesn’t have to putt much better than an average golfer this week.

Tommy Fleetwood ($9100): He’s got two finishes here, a T10 in his debut and a T26 last year – with two rounds getting away from him, shooting a 78 and 76 to ruin what would have been spectacular finishes. This season, Fleetwood has the fourth-best long proximity although the sample is small, but he hasn’t been his dominant self in terms of scoring: 20.83% birdie or better percentage is good for only 146^th on Tour, although he didn’t play the easy swing season which will affect that ranking. He’s 29^th in SG: Tee to Green, 15^th in Scrambling, and has strong form with two top-25s since Jan 1^st (combined PGA/Euro Tour starts.)

Brooks Koepka ($10,200): His course history is shockingly bad which may keep ownership away – one MC, one W/D and a T26 in his three attempts – but Brooks sets up well here. He’s consistently one of the best golfers on approach shots outside 175 yards (-53 on on 249 attempts last year), has a ton of distance off the tee, and last year was 3^rd in Par-5 Scoring/8^th in P5 BoB%. He was 4^th in putts outside 25’, which will help at a course where the average proximity is close to 40’, and he tends to perform better on Bermuda.

 

Value Golfer (below $8000)

Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($7500): Although he has no history here, RCB is a strong fit for the course from most perspectives, although he’s a better player on par-70s than -72s thanks to being a strong par-4 player. Rafa on the season has been very accurate off the tee (in terms of staying close to the centre of the fairway) and sits 61^st in SG:T2G, but it’s his long approaches that should set him up for success; in proximity to the hole outside 200 yards, Rafa is second, and he’s -12 relative to par outside 175 yards (in 62 attempts). He’s a great putter – 23^rd in SG: Putting – and very strong around the greens, ranking 34^th in overall scrambling and 19^th in proximity to the hole from the sand.

Talor Gooch ($6800): The fourth-best golfer in SG: Approach this year is severely underpriced at only $6800, as his form shows as well: in his last five events, Gooch has finishes of 4^th, T3, two missed cuts, and T20 last week. He’s found 72.67% of greens in regulation (24^th), he’s a strong putter outside 25’ (8.86%, 28^th), and he crushes par-5s to the tune of 55.95% Birdie or Better – but he’s a strong birdie-maker in general, averaging 4.52 per round. From outside 175 yards, Gooch is -20 (100 attempts), and his average approach distance when making birdie is 179.5.

Anders Albertson ($6000): All min-priced golfers come with a ton of risk, obviously, but Albertson has enough game to make it through the cut and allows for a lot of high-priced golfers. The ‘pros’ column for his course fit is long enough: fourth in par-3 scoring (2.89), 68^th in scrambling, and he’s -21 in 63 shots outside 200 yards / 39^th in SG: Approach. He’s not without warts though: he’s short off tee (but hasn’t played the easier tracks like Mexico and Sony to bump that average up), he’s a bad putter, he has no history here, and he’s missed five straight cuts.

You can follow me on Twitter @adalyfrey and good luck this week!