The First Tee – Travelers Championship

As ghosts from champions of the past lurked over Baltusrol’s back 9 (more like the 18th hole), Jimmy Walker was able to thwart them away with his best Bill Murray impression, and earn his first ever major title, marking the fourth first time major champion this year. The strategy Jimmy used on the 18th hole personally I feel was brilliant, even with some of the announcers questioning his decision. You give a pro-golfer a 30-yard chip for his third shot needing a 5, they’d take that chance every time. Plus, his putting was stellar so he knew all he had to do was 2 putt from 30 feet. As much as I needed Day to win for Draft Kings purposes, it was still fun to watch.

Weekly Roundup– PGA Championship

Jimmy Walker came in with a 1.3% ownership in the Millionaire Maker, which was pretty standard across all contests. When something like that happens you can guess that players I analyze struggled in the bigger GPP contests. More on that later. How about Jason Day at 9.3%, which is freaking crazy if you ask me, Daniel Summerhays .8%, and Matsuyama 3.6%, crazy low numbers on the guys that finished 1-4 this weekend.

My Fantasy Week Recap: As I mentioned in the beginning, I needed a Jason Day victory, for my Millionaire Maker teams. I was just outside the top 100 without Jimmy Walker, and by my calculations a Jason Day victory would have put me in about 60th. Still, I was able to come away with a Top Ten in the $3, 35K Hybrid, 3 entry max entry contest. I like these 3 entry max contests because I feel it levels the playing field out a bit. Hopefully I can continue the success moving forward. Overall I was profitable in every contest I participated in except the Millionaire Maker.

The Winning Strategy: Contrarian plays. If you use FGI’s ownership % model, which if you’re not, I would implore you to do so, had Matsuyama at 5%, the lowest % of the high priced guys, Summerhays at 2% and Jimmy Walker at 4%.

Right & Wrong
• Where I went Wrong- Not Enough Walker. (I think that’s probably pretty easy to say)
• Where I went Right- Day Matsuyama Grace

Player Ownership Analysis

If you follow me on Twitter @dfsxpert23 I gave you a sneak peek into a few strategies of our big volume plays. Let’s dive in.

SaahilSud – After a really good week last week, Saahil struggled with his player selections. I bet he wished he had gone high on Jimmy Walker again… But he didn’t. It does not appear to have been a pretty week for Saahil.

o $3- 150 Entries entered: Best Finish- 6392nd
o $33- 150 Entries entered: Best Finish- 1737th
o $333- 60 Entries Entered: Best Finishes- 135th

• Players Used-
o $3- 24 Players used
o $33- 24 Players used
o $333- 21 Players used

• Player Own %-
o Charl Schwatzel-84%
o *Rory McIlroy-75%
o Bubba Watson- 60%
o Adam Scott-57.3%
o *Brandan Steele-55%
o *Gary Woodland-36%
o Henrik Stenson- 33%
o *J.B Holmes-30%
o Francesco Molinari-28%
o Hideki Matsuyama-28%
o *Charley Hoffman-24%
o *Matt Kuchar-21%

*Denotes MC

Jetblackx – So, interesting thing going on here as one of the highest volume players did not participate in the Millionaire Maker. He also only entered 4 lineups in the $3. Now it’s quite possible he didn’t have time, or really didn’t like the rake % in the MM, nonetheless this might be something we have to look out for. While his picks were awful for the most part, one of the four lineups he entered into the Thunderdome was differentiated enough to dodge most of the MC’s, get 5/6 through the cut, and win the event. So, the moral of the story is to miss everything, find one perfect lineup and hit a six figure payday.

• Results:
o $3- 4 Entries- Best Finish: 8530th
o $33-0 Entries
o $333- 60 Entries- Best Finishes: 18th, 26th ,37th, 44th, 47th 79th
o $5300-4 Entries-Best Finish: 1st

• Players Used-
o $300-37 players used.

• Player Own % 3$- 33$
o *Rory McIlroy-62%
o *Brendan Steele-59%
o *Gary Woodland- 57%
o *Kevin Chappell- 45%
o *DJ/Schwartzel-38%
o Day/Fowler-33%
o Sullivan- 29%
o Sergio Gacira-27%
o Branden Grace-23%

PriestsApp– Could the hot streak continue??

Results:
o $3- 150 Entries entered: Best Finish- 8716th
o $33- 150 Entries entered: Best Finish- 2361st
o $333- 50 Entries Entered: Best Finish- 55th

• Players Used-
o $3- 42 Players used
o $33- 42 Players used
o $333- 30 Players used

• Player Own %-
o *DJ-50%
o *Matt Kuchar-38%
o *Rory-37%
o Henrik Stenson-33%
o Charl Schwatzel-33%
o *Sergio Garcia- 27%
o Francesco Molinari-27%
o Stricker-26%

*Denotes MC

ChipotleAddict – The other half of the big volume player that I tweeted out a sneak peak of, comes back on the list after a few week absence. I noted the 100% ownership on Spieth.

o $3-150 Entries entered: Best Finish- 1865th
o $33- 150 Entries entered: Best Finish-3467th
o $333- 26 Entries Entered: Best Finish-99th

• Players Used-
o $3- 27 Players Used
o $33- 27 Players Used
o $333- 25 Players used

• Player Own %-
o Jordan Spieth-100%
o Rickie Fowler-98.7%
o Daniel Berger-63%
o Bill Haas-48%
o Steve Stricker-44%
o *Brandan Steele-34%
o Brandt Snedeker=26%
o Jason Dufner-26%
o Hideki Matsuyama- 24%
*Denotes MC

JAE686– Back to back second place finishes in the $300+ contest now. I’d say this user is on a roll.

Results:
o $3- 150 Entries entered: Best Finish- 1506th
o $33- 150 Entries entered: Best Finish- 393rd
o $333- 60 Entries Entered: Best Finishes- 2nd, 24th, 44th, 56th , 82nd

• Players Used-
o $3- 50 Players used
o $33- 50 Players used
o $300- 45 Players used

• Player Own %-
o *Rory McIlroy-44%
o Henrik Stenson-36%
o *Matt Kuchar-32%
o Charl Schwartzel-27%
o Jim Furyk-25%
o Francesco Molinari-24%
o *Sergio Garcia-22%

• *Denotes MC

I_SlewFoot_u– His lackluster results last week didn’t give him the ability to max out his entries, but with a strong 300+ contest I bet he’ll be back full next week.

Results:
o $3-75 Entries entered: Best Finish- 473rd
o $33- 20 Entries entered: Best Finish- 150th
o $333- 25 Entries entered: 7th, 14th, 20th, 26th, 46th

• Players Used-
o $3- 35 Players Used
o $33- 32 Players used
o $300- 30 players used

• Player Own % $33 is the example used. No real difference sited. –
o *McIlroy-60%
o Matsuyamama-50%
o DJ-45%
o Willet-40%
o Grace/Molinari/Scott-30%
o *An-25%
o Thomas/Steele*/Rose/Hoffman/Dufner-20%

• *Denotes MC

Mazwa– Welp, either this user changed his user name, got caught cheating (unlikely) or is on vacation with all his winnings from the last two weeks (likely).

PSBC22– A second straight week a breakout performer has had another good week. Although he was maxed out across the three contests, he was still able to score multiple top ten finishes.

o 3- 150 Entries entered: Best Finish: 1844th
o $33- 150 Entries entered: Best Finish- 492nd
o $333-60 Entries: Best Finishes-3rd, 9th, 18th, 46th, 57th, 75th

• Players Used-
o $3-45 Players Used
o $33- 45 Players used
o $300-42 Players Used

• Player Own %-
o *DJ-51.3%
o *Rory-40%
o Adam Scott-35%
o Molinari-33%
o *Kuchar-31%
o Schwartzel-29%
o Dufner-27%
o Mickelson-26%
o Day 11.7%

• *Denotes MC

Bushler22000C– Our newest millionaire found success in other contests as well, but as you can imagine when you use the same lineup in multiple contests and do well in one, you’re probably going to do well in the other as well.

Results:
o $3- 38 Entries entered: Best Finish: 6th
o $33- 38 Entries entered: Best Finish- 1st, 99th

• Players Used-
o $3-68 Players Used
o $33- 68 Players used

Player Own %-
o Jason Day-45%
o Branden Grace-34%
o Charl Schwatzel-24%
o Adam Scott-24%
o Sergio Garcia-21%
o *Scott Piercy-21%
o DJ-18.4%
o Jimmy Walker-16%

• *Denotes MC

The Travelers Championship

Just about an hour south of where I reside is Cromwell, CT, the site of the Traveler’s Championship. Some big name players will be playing this week but none of the Big Four. The course sets up like a traditional New England course with marshes and tree lined fairways. TPC River Highlands is short, very short in fact, playing at a par 70 and just over 6800 yards. Hey listen, we don’t have a lot of space up here in New England! Anyway, it is normally one of the most well attended events on tour and should set up for a nice weekend. The course just went through a 3.5 million dollar renovation to re-position 69 bunkers that will make play tougher than previous years. With a few drivable par 4’s, I do think driving distance will be a factor even on such a short course. Here are the stat’s I’m interested in this weekend:

1. Driving Distance – Participating in this Tournament -Holmes-2nd, Finau-3rd, Watson-4th, Loupe-5th, Kokrak-6th

2. Strokes Gained off the Tee – Players Participating in this Tournament – Watson-3rd, Koepka-4th, J.B Holmes-5th, Landry 7th, Weekley,8th, Kokrak – 11th

3. Strokes gained approach to green – Players Participating in this Tournament -Garrigus-4th, Grace-5th, Chappell-6th, Reavie-10th, Simpson-11th

4. Strokes Gained Putting – Players Participating in this Tournament – Donaldson-2nd, Baddeley-7th, Harman-8th, Piller-9th, Summerhays-10th

5. Tee to Green – Players Participating in this Tournament – Watson-8th, Grace-10th, Chappell-11th, Simposon-12th, Kuchar-14th

Player Focus: Travelers Championship

Well after last week nailing 4 top ten’s including the winner, my luck seemed to have run out as I had 6 guys MC on me. We’ll try to do better this week.

On the Rise:

• Brandon Grace– $11,500 Coming off a great weekend at the PGA Grace earned himself a T4 and another top 5 at a Major. (5th at the US Open). He’s also a winner on tour this year at the RBC Heritage, so a strong finish to his season could propel him to a FED EX Cup victory and player of the year honors. I like Grace to compete for the title this weekend. He showed up in 2/5 stat categories above. (strokes gained approach to green and tee to green)
o Target Finish-top 3

• Paul Casey-$9,900 When he plays the weekend, count him in for a top 20. 10th at the PGA this past weekend, and 16th at the Bridgestone are mixed in with two missed cut at both Open’s. Casey has a good game tee to green, and if he can get the putter going I like him to be a low owned high tier player. I almost forget to mention his second place finish here last year.
o Target Finish- Top 5

• Russell Knox-$8,600 Russell comes in 5/5 in cuts made and has placed well here in the past 13th in 2013. 22nd at the Pga this week, I feel his game is trending in the right direction.
o Target Finish- Top 5

• Tyrell Hatton– $7,700 A rare PGA tour start for the Euro Tour member; Hatton’s game is really in good form. 10th 5th and 2nd in his last three starts, how can he not be on the list. I don’t’ expect him to be very highly owned because of his relatively high salary.
o Target Finish- Top 10

• Keegan Bradley– $7,600 A late year serge from Bradley as it seems he’s figured out how to putt. Joining Web Simpson and using the Matt Kuchar led tactic, his putting has been much more consistent, and the results are showing in his game. 3/3 in his last three starts and has never missed a cut here in 5 tries, I like Keegan to have one of his best showings of the year.
o Target Finish- Top 10

• Padraig Harrington– $7,400 Well, this grizzly ol’Irish veteran seems to have found his game again. Made all 4 his is last 4 cuts with his best finish being this past weekend with a 10th at the PGA. He also has two top 15 finishes here at TPC River Highlands.
o Target Finish-Top 15

• Jon Curran-$6,500 His value here seems pretty compelling. 10th here last year and made 3/4 cuts, I like his game around the green ranked 18th in SGARG. Look for him to make the cut and earn a top20 this weekend.
o Target Finish-Top 20

• Chad Campbell– $6,200 Back on the list, Chad didn’t let me down scoring a 26th at the RBC, and for the price he was, was a good finish. He’s also made his two previous cuts prior to that, and he’s 7/9 here at the TPC Highlands course, with two top 10’s.

• Jamie Donaldson– $5.900 This week there are so many guys under 6000 that I’m going to give you two I like. The first is Donaldson, and that’s probably due to his recent form. However, he’s never been lower than 6,600 on Draft Kings so I do like the value here. He’s one of the best putters on tour,
o Target Finish-Top 25

• Vijay Singh-$5,400 Maybe a bit of a stretch but he’s 8/9 here in Connecticut. Having found recent success as he placed second at the QLN, Vijay still has the game, and if you’re trying to roster both Watson and Graced, you’ll need some low priced options and I think Vijay should be one of them.

First Timers: Only one golfer will be making their Draft Kings debut this week.

1. Adam Rainaud– $5,000 A local pro playing out of Black Hall Club in Old Lyme, CT. He earned his way here by winning the Connecticut Section PGA Stroke Play Title. He did shoot 63 his final day to do so, but he’s 0/2 on his PGA starts.

Heading South – Fades

Well, Louis Oost placed 22nd and Willett placed last, so I’ll call that a push maybe favoring me. Louis is here for the second straight week.

• Louis Oosthuizen-$9,300 Up a thousand bucks from his decent performance at the PGA, Louis has really struggled here in CT as he’s only 1/3. It’s just too much money for me to spend on him.

• Daniel Summerhays– $7,600 has never ever played well here, meaning never has he’s 1/4 and the one cut he made he came in 74th. I’d rather go to Mr. Irishmen or Keegan Bradley over him this week.

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