The First Tee

This week, golfers head back to where championship golf began to play in the 145th iteration of The Open Championship. A fantastic week for all golf fans, especially ones that absolutely love links style golf like myself. The rolling fescue, the different approaches, the different strategies, it is just a fantastic spectacle of the sport. Sure, Augusta has its beauty, but here at the Open Championship, it’s golf in its purest form. I can’t wait to get literally ZERO sleep during the late night hours this week.

Weekly Roundup – Scottish Open

Some pretty decent coverage of the Scottish Open this week via the Golf Channel and NBC allowed me to really watch a lot of the Euro Tour players who will be competing in this week’s Open Championship. From the likes of the tall Swede, Alexander Noren (the winner) or the Belgian Bomber Nicolas Colsaerts, to the trending Callum Shinkwin, it allowed me to become somewhat familiar with their faces and their games. Sure, most of us know Stenson, Mickelson and Patrick Reed, but the other guys? Maybe not so much.

My Fantasy Week Recap: A Sunday charge from Colsaerts earned a few of my lineups top 75 finishes in the $3 and was well in the money in the 50/50s I participated in. Overall, a nice profitable week as I earned some tickets to this week’s Millionaire Maker as well.

The Winning Strategy: This week saw a few top salary guys not give a great return, i.e. Grace and Stenson, but did see some decent return with Mickelson and Reed. Fading the formers would have been the winning strategy of the week.

Right & Wrong
• Where I went Wrong- Barely any Alexender Noren(1 lineup). Very Little Danny Lee (5 lineups)
• Where I went Right- Colesarts, Ramsay (home town guy), Knox, Mickelson, Sterne

Player Ownership Analysis

I think it’s important this week to focus on the players that each of our “top” players were choosing. It might be a trend we see continue this week. Because of the contest sizes, I am only going to show results for the $3 and $33 contests.

SaahilSud – This is the first time I can remember seeing our biggest volume player have his largest ownership % be on the most expensive guy in the field, but as I just mentioned fading him was really the correct play. He only decided to focus on 21 players, 9 which didn’t make the cut and not one share of Noren. I find it hard to believe it was a positive week for Saahil. Let’s take a look.

Results:
o $3- 100 Entries entered: Best Finish- 2918th
o $33- 100 Entries entered: Best Finish- 340th

• Players Used-
o $3- 21 Players used
o $33- 21 Players used

• Player Own %-
o Henrik Stenson-75%
o Patrick Reed- 67%
o Phil Mickelson- 45%
o *Jamie Donaldson-40%
o *Gregory Bourdy-34%
o Ross Fisher-33%
o Tommy Fleetwood-32%
o Danny Lee-31%
o *Haotong Li-31%
o Steve Stricker-29%
o Alexander Levy-28%
o Graeme Mcdowell-23%
o *Jimmy Gunn-21% (I have to be honest I’ve never heard of Jimmy Gunn)

*Denotes MC

Jetblackx – No Rickie Fowler? I’m surprised this user was still at it with the max entries in the two contests. Two huge missed cuts from JB Holmes and Jamie Lovemark had this user on the course himself this past weekend. However, he did have solid overweights on Mickelson Lee and Hatton which helped him get back at least some of his investment back.

• Results:
o $3- 100 Lineups: Best Finish- 1113th
o $33- 100 Entries entered: Best Finish- 117th

• Players Used-
o $3-35 Players used
o $33- 35 Players used

• Player Own % 3$- 33$
o *J.B Holmes- 85%
o *Jamie Lovemark- 75%
o Chris Hnason- 58%
o Henrik Stenson- 54%
o *Thorbjorn Olesen- 32%
o Phil Mickelson-31%
o Brendan Grace-29%
o Danny Lee-24%
o Tyrell Hatton-21%

*Denotes MC

PriestsApp– Could we finally break the streak at 2? It would be the first time ever, so let’s take a look!

• Results:
o $3- 100 Entries entered: Best Finish-344th
o $33- 100 Entries entered: Best Finish-35th, 52nd

I’ll call this one a push as he did get 2 top 100 lineups in the $33. Let’s give him one more chance to break the streak this week at The Open.

o Players Used-
o $3- 42 Players used
o $33- 42 Players used

• Player Own %
o Ross Fisher-32%
o Henrik Stenson-31%
o Phil Mickelson-27%
o *Greg Bourdy-25%
o *Chris Wood-25%
o Luke Donald-21%
o Shane Lowry-21%
o Rafa Cabrera-Bello-20%
o Tyrell Hatton-15%
o Alexander Noren-12%

*Denotes a MC

Cewrazen– A New user to the list, Cewrazen showed up on my screener as a new name to big volume play. He took a very focused approach only choosing 23 different golfers with no golfer over a 52% weighting. Overall a pretty good start for the first time participant on the list.

• Results:
o $3- 100 Entries entered: Best Finish- 115th
o $33- 100 Entries entered: Best Finish- 52nd 59th 64th, 70th 81st

• Players Used-
o $3- 23 Players used
o $33- 23 Players used

• Player Own %
o *Gregroy Bourdy- 52%
o Henrik Stenson-38%
o Phil Mickelson-35%
o Raphael Jacquelin-35%
o Thomas Pieters- 32%
o Nicolas Colsaerts-31%
o Magnus A. Carlsson-30%
o Shane Lowry-30%
o Brendan Grace-29%
o Martin Kaymer-29%
o Wattel-29%
o Andy Sullivan-28%
o *Andrew Johnston-27%

*Denotes a MC

I_Slewfoot_u– After two great weeks in a row, this user had a marginal week last week. Was he able to overcome two MC’s from 2/5 of his top players? Let’s take a look.

• Results:
o $3-100 Entries: Best Finish-418th
o $33- 100 Entries entered: Best Finish-45th, 51st, 68th, 96th

• Players Used-
o $3- 61 Players used
o $33- 61 Players used

• Player Own %- This week the user decided to go back to his normal strategy using the same % for the same players.
o Henrik Stenson- 66%
o Phil Mickelson- 35%
o Patrick Reed-28%
o *Matthew Fitzpatrick-28%
o *Jamie Donaldson-22%
o Lee /Knox/*Wood- 22%
o McDowell/Donald/*Holmes/Stricker-20%

*Denotes a MC

ButBongoFiesta– Last week’s breakthrough performer, did not fare well at all this week, however it looks like he may not know a ton about Euro as he scaled back his entries this week.

• Results:
o $3-30 Entries- Best Finish- 8184th
o $33- 10 Entries- Best Finish- 822nd

• Players Used-
o $3- 17 Players used
o $33- 17 Players used

• Player Own %
o Johan Carlsson-90%
o Andy Sullivan/*Bourdy/*Stuart Manley- 60%
o *Lingmerth/Kaymer-50%
o Ross Fisher-40%
o *Kiradech Aphibarnrat- 30%
o *Jeung-hun Wang- 30%

*Denotes a MC

AshyL4rry– This week’s breakthrough performer of the week is a former member of this list, popping up for the first time since week one. The results were outstanding, with a win and another top 5. I’m sure he wishes the contest sizes were bigger! Still not a bad take for a week’s work. I’d like to make a note that this user used 46 players, and did not have more than 33% on one individual player; a specific strategy that is one of my favorites. He covered roughly 1/3 of the field.

• Results:
o $3-100 Entries- Best Finish- 4th,130th
o $33- 100 Entries- Best Finish- 1st, 17th, 19th, 63rd

• Players Used-
o $3- 17 Players used
o $33- 17 Players used

• Player Own %
o Mickelson- 33%
o Grace-32%
o Chris Hanson-28%
o Steve Stricker-26%
o Henrik Stenson-24%
o *Jamie Lovemark-22%
o Alexander Noren-22%
o Reed/Maximilian Kiefer/Pieters- 21%
o *JB Holmes/*Jaidee-20%
o Tyrell Hatton-18%

*Denotes a MC

The Open Championship

Definitely my second favorite week of the year, just “ever so slightly” behind The Masters Week. Watching this style of golf always excites me, as I tell all of my friends, family and clients I am on European Time this week, so make note. Coverage begins 1:30 AM EST Thursday morning, and will conclude most days around 2:00pm EST. Let’s hope that watching the Scottish Open last week will give me the insight to pick a winner for the third tournament in my last 4 tries. Also I’ll highlight some stats that I think are most important for this week’s Open Championship.

1. Birdie or Better % – DJ, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama

2. All Around- I think this stat is increasingly important every week I watch, especially on links style. Sure you can overpower it at times, but I can almost guarantee that the golfers will find themselves in a tough like, or difficult situation – Jason Day, Rory McIlray, Justin Rose, DJ, Adam Scott

3. Scrambling- To go with my statement above, I can almost assure every golfer participating this week that they will find themselves in a situation they did not plan to see – Steve Stricker-3, Justin Leonard- 4, Luke Donald-6, Patrick Reed-8, Jamie Lovemark-10

4. Bounce Back%- There will be doubles, maybe even triples, and the ability to come bounce back and forget about those will be vital – DJ, McIlroy, Spieth, Day, Matsuyama

5. Good Drive %- Not just length, and not just accuracy is important, the overall “good drive” is what’s important. Hitting fairways is not absolutely vital, as the first and second cut of rough here at Royal Troon can be very playable – Stenson, Knost, Herman, Knox, McGirt

6. Approach Shots 200-250- Lengthy par 3’s, difficult driving par 4’s will result in lots of shots from this distance, I’ll take a peek on the top performers on tour.

a. *This Features a combination of 2 categories that are followed on tour. The top 3 from each category are listed with the 200-225 coming first.
i. Scott, Leishman, Schwartzel
ii. McIlroy, Stenson, Simpson

Player Focus – Scottish Open

With the PGA tour having the week off I’ve had time to really dive in and give you readers a strong look at who I believe will perform this week, and why it’s important to roster them in your lineups.

On the Rise:

• DJ-$12,000, Simply you cannot bet against him right now. Finally, a major champion, followed by a win @ Firestone, he could go on a 2015 Day/Spieth like run here. I just can’t tell you to bench him, he is just too hot.
o Target Finish- Top 3

• Sergio Garcia– $10,000, I have to be honest… I’m really going to miss Ivor Robson who started The Open Championship for the last 41 years. The way he introduced Sergio Garcia will forever remain in my mind and heart. He’s only played three times in the last 8 weeks, so he’s well rested. In those three appearances he has a win and two 5th place finishes. We know he has the ability to play well on these links style courses, specifically St. Andrews Old Course that draws a lot of comparisons to Royal Troon. He finished 6th last year, 14th in 2010 and 5th in 2005. The stats I like from Sergio this week are his 8th ranking in All Around game, second in Bounce Back % and 10th in Birdie or Better%.
o Target Finish- Top 5

• Martin Kaymer– $8,400, The price here looks very compelling, as his recent form is stellar. 13th, 5th, 37th, 7th and 5th. He looked very comfortable at last week’s Scottish Open and his price was 3k higher than it is this week. I like Kaymer for a Mid-Price guy. (*No stats accumulated as most of his stats have come on the Euro Tour)
o Target Finish-Top 7

• Marc Leishman– $7,400, One of the two losers to Zach Johnson last year, Leishman’s stats were all over the place, but somehow managed to stay right in it all the way to the end. This year on tour Leishman shows up again in the stat category. Ranked 4th in approach shots from 200-225 yards, and 16th in 225-250, so clearly a good long iron hitter. Finishes of 55th, 39th, 16th, 11th and 13th in his last 5 appearances is the reason his price is lower than we are used to seeing. Look for him to stick around for the weekend yet again.
o Target Finish-Top 10

• Scott Piercy– $7,400, He’s got to be on this list. He’s performed in majors, and almost won his last appearances at Firestone. He has only played in the Open once before in 2013 where he missed the cut. It’ll be interesting to see if Piercy can continue the hot play in a true links style course. Stat wise Piercy is ranked 19th in Birdie or Better % and 22nd in All Around.
o Target Finish-Top 10

• Alex Noren– $6,900, The last time the Scottish Open was held at Castle Hill, the winner of that event went on to win The Open (Phil Mickelson). If you like that angle it’s not a terrible play. Noren also has a 8th and 12th on his recent form card (1st, 8th, mc, 12th). I will note that he missed the cut in 2010 when The Open was at St. Andrews.
o Target Finish- Top 15

• Jon Rahm– $6,600, The former Sun Devil turned pro goes a little closer to home for this tournament. Originally from Spain, Rahm is no stranger to European courses. His performance at the US Open makes him very hard to overlook and he went on to earn a third place finish at the QLN. I expect him to be in contention come Sunday.
o Target Finish- Top 15

• Danny Lee– $6,300, Lee was interviewed after Friday, and he struck a chord with me. The right one. Even though it’s not a ton of money, he said before the tournament he would donate $50.00 for every birdie he made to help the people in West Virginia that were affected by the floods. Awesome stuff I wish more would follow his path. In that same interview he mentioned adding a 2 iron in the bag that he is able to flight low under the wind and control. He was able to remain in contention throughout the weekend coming in T3. Although he did not come out with a W this past weekend I really like his value here, and if he continues to gain confidence in that 2 iron it will only flow in to other parts of his game. His MC at The Open last year and other recent finishes are the reasons his price is so low.
o Target Finish- Top 20

• Harold Varner– $6,000, Earning his spot via his QLN finish, Varner is making a strong case for rookie of the year on Tour. Peaking on his stats, he ranks 16th in Bounce Back % and 25th in Birdie or Better %. This will be his first Open Championship but I like him to at least be around for the weekend.
o Target Finish- Top 30

• Callum Shinkwin– $5,400, If you follow me on Twitter @dfsxpert23 you have seen me mention him already. An awesome Sunday finish at the Scottish Open earned him his second straight Top 10 finish. Two straight top tens vs. pretty good fields and priced at $5400?? Yes, please. I suppose I’m not the only player to see this, so I do expect his ownership to be a bit higher.
o Target Finish- Top 30

Heading South – Fades

I was a right on with Hideki last week as he had a terrible showing, but Paul Casey had a rather decent showing. We’ll pick back up next week.

• Shane Lowry– $8,800, Surprising many in the DFS community with his performance at The US Open, it looks like his finish there is still weighing on the mind of the Irishmen. A MC at the Scottish Open this past weekend and a 36th at the Bridgestone Invitational, shows his recent form is a bit of a mess right now. Finally, he missed the cut at The Open Championship last year, so when you add all that up, it equals a fade for me.

• Matt Kuchar– $7,800, Here’s the thing, at this price I think Matt will be the highest owned guy in the Millionaire Maker. Finishes of 3rd, 46th, 4th, 6th and 3rd in his last five starts bring him into the tournament with a lot of momentum. However, I would urge caution due to his track record at these types of courses. He finished 58th and 27th in two appearances at St. Andrews. With his projected ownership being high and his mediocre course history I think it is prudent to leave Kuchar alone this week.

Players Added to the Draft Kings Pool Monday Afternoon

As per usual with Draft Kings and Major Championships, they added 8 players this afternoon. I think it’s important to highlight these players and the way they got the invite.

1. Nicolas Colsaerts– $7,200, I’ve already talked a little bit about the Belgian Bomber in this article, so the name should ring a bell. He’s playing this week thanks to his T3 at the Scottish open this past weekend. He also earned six Top 25 finishes in his last seven starts and has two other third place finishes among those six.

2. Luke Donald– $6,800, Playing this week because of the Jaco Van Zyl WD, Luke needs something to get his season going again. His swing really isn’t in good form, although he did make the cut this past weekend at the Scottish Open. However, he was never in contention finishing in 45th place. That was preceded with another 45th, a MC, 68th and 27th in his last five starts. He has had success in the past at St. Andrews finishing in 12th last year and 11th in 2010. We’ll see if The Open Championship can get his season going again.

3. Tyrell Hatton– $6,600, Dubbed as a Charles Howell III type, Hatton plays a lot, and makes a lot of cuts. He’s playing this week because of his second place finish this past weekend at the Scottish Open. He also placed 5th at the Irish Open, so links style courses obviously fit with Hatton’s game. He is 0/2 at St. Andrews missing the cut last year and in 2010, so we’ll see if the third times a charm for Hatton.

4. Matteo Manaserro– $6,200, The Italian has been around for a little while now as he busted on the scene at a very young age. He’s played decent of late, including his T3 at the Scottish Open which earned him his spot this week. He also has a 13th and 12th mixed in with a MC and 46th in his last five starts.

5. Richie Ramsey– $6,100, The local Scot, Ramsey earned his way to The Open this week with a 6th place finish at his home event in Inverness Scotland @ Castle Hill. He was quoted during the week that if he won the Scottish Open it would be more important than The Open Championship. I find that hard to believe but if that’s the case I could see Royal Troon seeking revenge on Ramsey for the comments.

6. Jamie Lovemark– $6,000, Did he find something on Friday? He played very well shooting 68 @ the Scottish Open, but he shot 10 over 82 on Thursday. It didn’t matter how well he played Friday as he was out of the tournament after his awful first round. So how is he here? Paycheck collecting Berger had to WD due to a muscle strain in his shoulder and Lovemark was next on the list. Hopefully, Berger gets healthy soon so he can earn more money which in turn may help him have the capability of donating some of that to charities.

7. Colt Knost– $5,900, Knost is here because of a Koepka WD. His recent form, which does not include his finish at the Barracuda, 18th, 67th, and 4th. This will be his first appearance at The Open Championship.

8. Daniel Summerhays– $5,800, He’s here because Stewart Cink had to WD. His recent form is encouraging for his price, especially given his 8th place finish at The US Open. He also placed 21st at the QLN and 38th at the Memorial. I like him as a deep GPP player this week.

That’s it for this week be sure to follow me on Twitter @DFSXpert23 for some fun facts and info!