The First Tee

Jason Rouslin
By Jason Rouslin June 28, 2016 01:47

The tour remains stateside for the third WGC event of the year. Rory will be playing in France, but other than him the field features many of the top 60 players in the world. Without a cut, this event will provide a full, four day sweat for DFS players to enjoy.

Weekly Roundup – Quicken Loans

Hometown boy and American hero, Billy Hurley III captured an impressive victory. If you didn’t have the chance to watch, that chip on 15 was incredible! When you look at everything that was on the line for a player ranked 607th in the world, it makes it that much more impressive. His win gains him a two yearear exemption, a spot at this year’s Open Championship and PGA Championship, and next year’s Masters, among others.

Fading all guys over 10K plus proved to be the winning strategy last weekend. Your top performer in that category was Garry Woodland finishing T21. Bill Haas, Webb Simpson, Francesco Molinari and Robert Garrigus were the expensive guys to build your teams around this week. The leaderboard was filled with ugly surprises at the top and it showed that once again, course history is still a key factor to look at each week.

Last Week’s Results

For some odd reason I decided to overlook Billy Hurley’s great finishes here, and give him 0% exposure… Wow you all can imagine how my week went.

• Where I went Wrong- 0% Billy Hurley
• Where I went Right- Jon Rahm – He saved my week from being a complete and utter loss. It was just a bad loss.

Player Ownership Analysis

This section will be dedicated to following the major players in DFS Golf, as with a lot of other facets in life it’s important to stay up to date on what the “pros are doing”. Here I’ll take a look into each of their exposures for the week, what worked, what didn’t, and a few other facts and figures on the previous week’s contests.

SaahilSud – Ready for this one? Jim Furyk was his number one owned golfer….again. For the fourth week in a row, Saahil made a big buy on Furyk, but unlike last week, Furyk did not deliver the goods based upon his high salary. Looks like it wasn’t the best week for Saahil.

• Results:
o $3- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 2976th
o $33- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 152nd
o $300- 25 Entries entered: Best Finishes-31st , 159th

• Players Used-
o $3- 34* Players used
o $33- 34* Players used
o $300-28 Players used

Just a note this is two weeks in a row for Saahil that he’s chosen 34 players.

• Player Own %- $3 & $20
o Furyk- 51%
o Fowler- 42%
o Streb-39%
o Tony Finau-34%
o Bill Haas- 31%
o Patrick Reed- 28%
o Jason Gore*- 25%
o George Mcniel* 22%
o Ryan Palmer*- 21%

*Denotes MC

Jetblackx – Was it another week of the Fowler Fetish? It sure was. 84% in the $3 and $33. Maybe we’ll see it again this week with Fowler’s salary being so low. It was not a good week for Rickie or for Jetblackx.

• Results:
o $3- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 7644th
o $33- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 732th
o $300- 11 Entries Entered: Best Finish- 245th

• Players Used-
o $3- 51 Players used
o $33- 51 Players used
o $300-20 Players used

• Player Own % 3$- 33$
o Rickie Fowler-83.5%
o Luke List*- 52%
o Hun-An-50%
o Swafford- 47%
o Finau- 34%
o Lovemark-33%
o Howell III- 32%
o Chappell- 29%
o Si Woo Kim*- 23%

• *Denotes a MC

PreistsApp– Back on the list, and coming back with vengeance. A John Rahm 42% helped him earn some great finishes.

• Results:
o $3- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish-266th
o $33- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 14th, 69th
o $333- 10 Entries Entered: Best Finish- 4th , 31st, 97th

• Players Used
o $3- 49 Players used
o $33- 61 Players used
o $300-27 Players used

• Player Own %
o Jim Furyk- 51%
o Jon Rahm- 43%
o Daniel Summerhays-40%
o Brandan Steele-37%
o Charles Howell III- 36%
o Byeong-Hun An- 34%
o Anriban Lahiri- 32%
o Patrick Reed-30%

• *Denotes a MC

JAE686– After a disappointing week at the Open, this user was back it with max entries across the big 3 contests.

• Results:
o $3- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 1064th
o $33- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 51st, 85th
o $300- 50 Entries entered: Best Finish-29th, 45th, 65th

• Players Used-
o $3- 74 Players used
o $33- 74 Players used
o $300-46 players used

• Player Own %
o Rickie Fowler- 57%
o Tony Finau-25%
o Gary Woodland- 20%
o Webb Simpson- 18%
o Bill Haas- 17.5%
o Francesco Molinari- 14.5%

I_Slew_foot_u – after a decent performance last week, this user followed it up again with another decent performance.

• Results:
o $3-200 Entries: Best Finish-1116th
o $33- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish-15th, 54th 72nd
o $300- 25 Entries Entered: Best Finish- 7th, 18th, 39th, 65th, 85th 89th

• Players Used-
o $3- 72 Players used
o $33- 67 Players used
o $300-45 Players used

• Player Own %
o Rickie Fowler- 75%
o Bryson Decham- 21%
o Jason KoKrak-20%
o Kevin Chappel-20%
o Bill Haas- 20%
o Tony Finau- 20%
o Webb Simpson- 17.5%
o John Rahm- 10%

MMCCONN– Our Newest Millionaire must have been partying this week and didn’t have time to make many lineups as he only entered 1 lineup in the $33 and 2 in the $3.

Ob1knoby– “Billy, you’re my only hope”. Well Star Wars reference or not this user is my pick for breakthrough performer of the week. The stats are just incredible this week for the $3 which is really the only contest he entered. (1 lineup in the $33). Wait till you see who he has as his two top golfers.

• Results:
o $3-200 Entries: Best Finish-4th, 5th, 8th, 10th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 21st, 24th, 25th, 27th, 31st, 32nd, 37th. 39thX2, 43rd X2, 48th, 56thX2, 66th, 67th, 74thX2, 77th, 82nd. Wow.

• Players Used-
o $3- 19 Players used

• Player Own %
o Billy Hurley- 81% (WHHHHHAAAAAT!!!) (WOW)
o Jon Rahm- 80% (Double WOW)
o Chez Reavie- 77%
o Daniel SummerHays- 54%
o Kevin Streelman-54%
o Roberto Castro- 44%
o Bill Haas- 36%
o Brandon Steele-23.5%

WGC-Bridgestone

Back for the 12th playing of the WGC-Bridgestone all at Firestone CC in Akron Ohio. The field is very small at just 58 players (available on draftkings) therefore there will be no cut, and features almost all of the World’s top ranked players. A Par 70 layout that players over 7400 yards will really test the field’s long iron play.

1. Birdie or Better %- I know I know I sound like a broken record BUT because there is no cut at this tournament Birdie % becomes so vitally important. Even someone starting in 60th on Sunday but can make birdies could help a Lineup move up in the standings.
a. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour *Participating in this Tournament: In order: Dj-1, Spieth-3, Day-4, Matsuyama-5, Scott-6

2. Approach Shots 200-225- According to my research over 26% of approach shots at Firestone CC come from within these yardages. So I’m going to focus on this stat.
a. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour* Participating in this tournament: Scott-1, Lieshman-2, Hun-An-5, Schwatzel-6, Kaufman-7

3. Driving Distance- The aforementioned length of this golf course will test some of the smaller hitters, but may not affect the longer hitters. This is a stat I don’t’ normally focus on, but for this tournament I’m going to take a peek at it.
a. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour* Participating in this tournament: Dj-2, Holmes-3, Watson-9, Koepka-14, Scott-19

4. The Flat Stick- Putting Putting Putting. That is all.
a. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour* Participating in this tournament: Day-1, Mickelson-3, English-6, Spieth-8, Kuchar-17

5. The last stat I’m looking at is Tee to Green. It seems to be the common stat amongst top finishers here.
a. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour* Participating in this tournament: Scott-1, Rose-2, DJ-3, Matsuyama-5, Fowler-6

Player Focus – On the Rise

After a real solid week at the Open, my “On the Rise” had another decent performance going 7/9. My Jon Rahm recommendation was the best as he was a T3. Other finishes T21,T21,T29,T29, T44, T64.

1. Dustin Johnson – $11,600
a. The recent performance is just unmatched playing his best golf of the year, at the right time. 1, 5, 3, 12 in his last 4 starts.
b. Course History looks decent with three top 25 finishes. 15th in 2010 was his best finish.
c. Stat wise if you look above, Johnson shows up in a few of the important categories. 3rd in Tee to Green, 1st in Birdie or Better % 2nd in Driving Distance.
d. Being the second highest salary you expect/need a top 5 finish to see a return on your investment.
e. Target Points*- 95+ Points (Top 5 Position and 15+ Birdies)

2. Jim Furyk– $9,500
a. A T21 last week left owners feeling a bit empty because of Jim’s high salary. However, his recent performance is trending in the right direction.
b. When you match that with his tournament history which includes 4 top 10’s and 6 top 25s including a third last year and second in 2012, the value here looks intriguing.
c. Again not enough stats accumulated for me to report, but that should change soon.
d. Love the value here at 9500
e. Target Points*- 95(Top 10 and 15+birdies)

3. Jason Dufner– $8500
a. A strong finish @ Oakmont netting him a T6th, Dufner comes in with some great form. A 33rd 6th and 24th are his other finishes in his last 4 appearances.
b. Dufner has bagged 2 top tens in 3 tries here at Firestone with a 4th and 7th.
c. Stats are marginal with 17th in Birdie or Better %, and 19th in T2G being his best.
d. At $8,500 you’re hoping for a Webb Simpson T6 like performance from Dufner this week.
e. Target Points*- 85 Points (Top 10 position and 13+Birdies)

4. Shane Lowry– $8700
a. I think it’s a bit harsh to call Lowry Mr. Chokejob because @ Oakmont Double Bogey’s aren’t hard to come by, so a 3 shot lead isn’t really much. Regardless he still was able to finish second, and also comes to Firestone as the Defending Champ.
b. His Stats are very marginal for what his accumulated on the PGA Tour (*Note he plays a lot on the Euro Cirucit as well) T2G is his best at 44th.
c. As I just mentioned he comes in as the defending champion and also has a 48th and 77th on his card in three tries.
d. At $8,700 he’s great to put in your cash lineups and pair him up with Duf and other guys in the price range. I.E Justin Thomas and Zach Johnson.
e. Target Points*- Target Points*- 85 Points (Top 10 position and 13+Birdies)

5. Scott Piercy– $7100
a. Coming off his t2 @ Oakmont I expect Scott to be fairly high owned at this price level. Prior to that he was 3/4 in his last 4 appearances with a 23rd being his best finish.
b. 2 starts here at Firestone with a 19th and 59th on his card.
c. Birdies come in bunches for Scott as he’s ranked 48th on tour in BB% and sports a 37th in driving distance.
d. The Value is key here.
e. Target Points*- 80 (Top 20 position, 10+ birdies)
f. Other Value Plays in this price range that I like
i. Hoffman-7100
ii. Grillo-7000

6. Smylie Kaufman– $6900
a. Finally, Smylie returned to the form we know from him and earned a T10 at the QLN. Prior to that he hadn’t played great only making 1/4 cuts with a 20th.
b. It’ll be his first start here @ Firestone, but that doesn’t concern me.
c. Third on tour in approach shots 200-225, 21st in BB% and 28th in driving distance are the stats that I’m watching for him.
d. @ 6900 I expect him to be the highest owned guy in this price range.
e. Target Points*- 80(Top 20 position, 10+birdies)

7. Vaughn Taylor– $5900
a. Because of the smaller field I’m only going to focus on 7 guys this week. Vaughn is my pick for the <6000 guy and really only for one reason. He has the best BB% between everyone in that price category, and you don’t have to sweat him making the cut or not, because there isn’t one. b. The one time he’s played here he was 27th in 2008. c. 56th on tour in approach shots from 200-225, 60th in T2G, and 64th in BB% are a few of this other stats. Heading South – Fades

Well I was 1/2 on Fades this week. Henley was an MC so I get a full point there, but 0 for Webb as he did return pretty decent value with a T6 at the QLN.

1. Hideiki Matsuyama– $9,300
a. He’s just playing so bad lately. Missing his last two cuts and overall just not playing to his potential. Because there is no cut I could see him making a fair amount of birdies this week but be cautious of his high salary.

2. Paul Casey– $7,800
a. Same story with Casey as was the story with Hideki. Messed his last two cuts and just hasn’t looked sharp. I think you can find much better value in that price range.

That’s it for this week be sure to follow me on Twitter @DFSXpert23 for some fun facts and info!

Jason Rouslin
By Jason Rouslin June 28, 2016 01:47

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