The First Tee

Jason Rouslin
By Jason Rouslin June 22, 2016 00:13

Weekly Roundup – The US Open

Oooooo Oakmont. It really didn’t let us down did it? Thursday morning golfers were throwing birdies around like crazy, IE Andre Gonzales had 2 in the first 5 holes! Everyone was thinking, man if Andre Gonzales can make birdies it can’t be that hard, can it? Well, the winning score ended up being -5(IMO). I’m not going to give the USGA any satisfaction in thinking it “protected” the field by assessing that one shot penalty to DJ. That’s a bunch of crap, and as a golfer, he did not make the ball move in any way shape or form. But I digress, and if you read last week’s edition of the “First Tee” you would have seen DJ was my pick to win it, even with some dumb penalty assessed to him.

The three highest priced players in the field were not able to win a major for the second straight time this year. Is this a trend that will continue? Maybe not, however if you were able to fade them here and pair DJ with the second tier guys like Grace, Garcia, and Furyk you had a better chance than I at a good week. Another thing that I think is vital when doing your research is to factor in ownership projections. I haven’t been doing much with it in the past, but after reviewing this week’s results and adding in the composite predictions from Zach and Jeff, I see where Shane Lowry showed up on the radar of some of the better players, and he and Furyk were key to finding that winning Millionaire Maker lineup this past week.

Last Week’s Results

My week was throttled when I realized I had little to no DJ W/ Grace/Garcia/Westwood/Furyk. I had a glimmer of hope midway through round 3 when Lowry was in the lead and the Grace/Gracia/Westwood tandem, which I did have a lot of, were all in the top 5. This week showed what it took to win the millionaire maker, and as you’ll see from Jeff’s GPP Results the winning entry had all golfers position 1-6. Crazy.

• Where I went Wrong- Gave the big 3 55/200 milly maker lineups, each.
• Where I went Right- DJ was my highest owned golfer at 25% throughout all of my lineups, but because of his high ownership % it really didn’t help me much. I was all over Greg Bourdy and that looked great, until the back 9 on Saturday.
• Overall my 25% weighting on DJ across my lineups did not turn into a positive week for me, but that’s what bankroll management is all about. Very few people consistently place in the Top 10 of GPPs, and you need to able to give yourself an opportunity for the next week.

Player Ownership Analysis

This section will be dedicated to following the major players in DFS Golf, as with a lot of other facets in life it’s important to stay up to date on what the “pros are doing”. Here I’ll take a look into each of their exposures for the week, what worked, what didn’t, and a few other facts and figures on the previous week’s contests.

SaahilSud – Jim Furyk…I mean I get that he’s gonna be low owned in the stronger field tournaments, and that he’s a solid player, very solid, but this is the third week of 4 that Saahill has made him a very highly owned player. From the contests I follow looks like our biggest volume player had a decent week with some good finishes in the $300 Club pro.

• Results:
o $3- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 2970th
o $20- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 2797th
o $300- 50 Entries entered: Best Finishes-13th , 23rd,33rd, 39th, 44th, 50th

• Players Used-
o $3- 34 Players used
o $20- 34 Players used
o $300-17 Players used

• Player Own %- $3 & $20
o Furyk- 53%
o Kevin Na- 36.5%
o Matt Kuchar- 35.5%
o Henrik Stenson*- 32%
o Zach Johnson- 28.5%
o Bubba Watson- 28%
o Rory Mcilroy*- 27%
o Danny Berger- 25%
o Jordan Spieth-25%

• *Denotes a MC

Jetblackx – The love affair with Rickie Fowler continued AGAIN! Clearly our friend is just not afraid of the weak form Fowler has been in lately. He also went very high on Kjeldson and others that MC’d. Overall a pretty bad week for one of the top players.

• Results:
o $3- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 3927th
o $20- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 3631th
o $300- 39 Entries Entered: Best Finish- 17th , 84th, 113th

• Players Used-
o $3- 50 Players used
o $20- 50 Players used
o $300-46 Players used

• Player Own % 3$- 20$
o Jason Day- 78%
o Rickie Fowler*-45%
o Soren Kjeldson*- 44.5%
o Marc Leishman- 38%
o Kevin Chappell*- 30.5%
o Jimmy Walker*- 26.5%
o Kevin Na- 24%
o Phil Mickelson*- 23.5%
o Jon Rahm- 21%

• *Denotes a MC

CSURAM88– A new addition to this week’s list, as he was in good spirits as he maxed out entries on the $3, $20, and the $5300 thunderdome. He also had 10 lineups in the $333. When you see his breakdown of players used, you’ll know just what kind of week this user had.

• Results:
o $3- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish-429th
o $20- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 39723st
o $333- 10 Entries Entered: Best Finish- 39th

Players Used-
o $3- 49 Players used
o $20- 49 Players used
o $300-27 Players used

• Player Own %
o Henrik Stenson*-46%
o Rory Mcilroy*- 36%
o DJ- 35%
o Kjeldson*- 31%
o Matsuymama*- 28%
o Jaco Van Zyl*- 25.5%
o Webb Simpson*- 18.5%

• *Denotes a MC

JAE686– A great week at the FESJC for this user, let’s see how he faired in the big money contests this week! (You’ll see he made the same mistake I did which was overweighting the big 3)

• Results:
o $3- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 549th
o $20- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 507th
o $300- 50 Entries entered: Best Finish- 131st

• Players Used-
o $3- 63 Players used
o $20- 63 Players used
o $333-*

• Player Own %
o Jason Day- 30%
o Rory Mcilroy- 28.5%
o Jordan Spieth- 28%
o Henrik Stenson- 22.5%
o Danny Willet- 18.5%
o Rafa Cabera-Bello- 18%
o Chris Wood- 17.5%
o Matt Kuchar- 16.5%

• *Denotes a MC

Chipotle Addict– YES MY FAVOITE USER IS BACK ON THE LIST. After taking a bit of a breather from all that E.coli breakout, ok I’ll stop now, the user was back in full force.

• Results:
o $3-200 Entries: Best Finish- 949th
o $20- 200 Entries entered: Best Finish- 850th
o $300- 12 Entries Entered: Best Finish- 17th, 66th, 69th, 73rd

• Players Used-
o $3- 28 Players used
o $33- 28 Players used
o $300-28 Players used

• Player Own %
o Brooks Koepka- 93.5%
o Henrik Stenson*- 85.5%
o Brandon Grace- 71.5%
o Justin Rose*- 52.5%
o Char Schwartzel- 49%
o Jb Holmes*- 37%
o Jim Furyk- 34%
o Paul Casey*-24%
o Sergio Garcia- 23%

• *Denotes a MC

I_Slewfoot_U– This user was maxed out in all the big money contests and seemed to have a decent performance. Let’s take a look.

• Results:
o $3-199 Entries: Best Finish-92nd
o $20- 199 Entries entered: Best Finish-163rd , 163rd
o $300- 50 Entries Entered: Best Finish- 32nd 88th

• Players Used-
o $3- 71 Players used
o $33- 71 Players used
o $300-28 Players used

• Player Own %
o Brooks Koepka- 93.5%
o Henrik Stenson*- 85.5%
o Brandon Grace- 71.5%
o Justin Rose*- 52.5%
o Char Schwartzel- 49%
o JB Holmes*- 37%
o Jim Furyk- 34%
o Paul Casey*-24%
o Sergio Garcia- 23%

• *Denotes a MC

Bric75– Last week’s breakthrough performer couldn’t find that secret sauce again as he struggled to find any good finishes a week after his great performance last week. He used the same exact lineups 101 of them for both the 3$ and the 20$.

• Results:
o $3-101 Entries: Best Finish- 1179th
o $20- 101 Entries: Best Finish- 1052nd
o $300- 1 Entry- 339th

• Players Used
o $3 & $20 – 47 players used

• Player Own %
o Brooks Koepka- 39%
o Matt Kuchar- 37.6%
o Charl Scwartzel- 30%
o Rory Mcilroy*-24%
o Phil Mickelson*- 21%
o Sergio Garcia- 18.8%
o Charley Hoffman- 18.8%

• *Denotes a MC

Mmcconn – How can I not give credit, where credit is due to the Millionaire Maker winner? This user entered 5 whole lineups, that’s right 5, and was able to come away with first place prize of 1 million dollars. He didn’t even participate in any other contest or have any other lineups. I’d expect to see him become a frequent player on this list now.

An interesting note to finish up on the contest analysis, the best finish for a person that had the max number of entries was 8th. In the top 10 the # of entries the users had were in order from 1st-10th, 5 10 6 3 1 32 7 200 1. Crazy.

The Quicken Loans National

This is the 7th time this tournament will be held at Congressional Country Club, first named the AT&T National, and now the Quicken Loans National. The field is rather light, and the number of available players to choose from is only 120 as it is an invitational event. It should be a bit easier to focus in on your guys than at last week’s US Open where over 150 different golfers were in the field. Our first par 71 in quite some time, Congressional has played rather tough in past years, with the cut line being well over par. The lowest it’s been in the history of the tournament is +2 in 2009 and the highest being +6 in 2012. (Both events won by Tiger) Justin Rose is the defending champion from 2014, with a winning score of -4. When looking up the course trends a few stats stuck out to me.

1. Birdie or Better %- yes its number 1, but this time it is a very common stat among the top 5 here over the history of the tournament. Oh and don’t forget Draft Kings loves birdies and eagles.
Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour *Participating in this Tournament: Byeong-Hun An 8th, Rickie Fowler 11th, Ryan Palmer 16th, Andrew Loupe 19th, Smylie Kaufman 21st

2. All Around- I know this may be a bit cliché, but this stat was also very prevalent amongst the winners and high finishers at this tournament. It hasn’t been a stat that has shown up much other than last week, but this course demands a good tee shot, good wedge game, and good putting. So let’s just group them all together shall we?
Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour* Participating in this tournament: Rickie Fowler 4th, Ryan Palmer 10th, Marc Leishman 13th, Brandon Steele 14th, Charles Howell III 15th

3. Bounce Back %- Moving up one spot on my list this week is Bounce Back %. Clearly with cut lines being well over par there are tons of bogey’s out there. Let’s see who is the best at bouncing back after a bogey.
Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour* Participating in this tournament: Lovemark 3rd, Palmer 6th, Wilkinson 8th, Baddeley 9th, Garrigus 11th

4. 4th for par 4 scoring. Par 71 means there’s one shy par 5 and one more par 4 than normal.
Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour* Participating in this tournament: Fowler 2nd, Roberto Castro 5th, Russel Henley 9th, Charles Howell 9th, Marc Leishman 9th

5. The last stat I’m looking at is good drive %. This seems to be a reoccurring statistic among top finishers here in Maryland.
Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour* Participating in this tournament: Chez Reavie 5th, Castro 7th, Streelman 8th, Glover 10th, Herman 11th

Player Focus – On the Rise

Well after 3 attempts I finally had the winner as part of the “On The Rise”. I was 7/9 on the week missing my two lower guys Wise and Lahiri. T8, T12, T18, T23 were a few of the other finishes of players on the list. So overall if you made some lineups based off of this list you would have some pretty decent cashes.

1. Jim Furyk – $11,300
a. I mentioned not long ago that it would not be long before we saw Jim Furyk at price levels far exceeding what we were paying in his first few events after returning from a wrist injury. This prediction came true after last week as Jim is coming off a great Sunday at Oakmont that earned him a T2.
b. His course history may be one of the best in the field as he’s 5/5 with three top 10’s to his credit.
c. For stats, Jim came back from an injury and hasn’t played in that many tournaments, thus he hasn’t accumulated enough rounds to have sufficient stats to qualify in the rankings. The ones that are calculated, at least to my research, show he is 22nd on tour in Good Drive % and 3rd on tour in Proximity from the rough.
d. His high price tag means you expect him to earn a minimum of a top 5 if you’re going to pay up.
e. Target Points*- 95+ Points (Top 5 Position and 15+ Birdies)

2. Daniel Summerhays– $8,100
a. A late add to the player pool last week, Summerhays didn’t disappoint his owners with a T8 finish. With a better Sunday, he might have given him a chance to win his first major. Prior to the US Open he was also 4/4 in his last four appearances with two Top 25’s.
b. His Course history is marginal making 2/3 cuts finishing in 30th and 17th when playing through the weekend.
c. His best stat on my list is 8th in good drive % and 17th in GIR.
d. At 8100 I think he presents some good value, and clearly is in pretty good form. I like him a lot this week.

3. Beyong Hun-An– $9,600
a. Flying a bit under the radar, Beyong had a terrible first day at Oakmont shooting 75, however he played his remaining 54 holes at only +2 to finish the tourney +7 earning him a T23 finish.
b. Prior to the US Open he was 3/5 in making cuts with his best finish being 2nd. I think he found something over the last 3 rounds and will carry that over to this week.
c. As you saw above, he ranks 8th in Birdie or Better %, and the other two stats that show up are 26th in all around, and 25th in bounce back.
d. At $9,600 you’re hoping for at least a Top 10 if not a Top 5, but I think this could be the spot for Mr. An’s first PGA tour Victory.
e. Target Points*- 85 Points (Top 10 position and 13+Birdies)

4. Bryson Dechambeau– $8,800
a. There is a great story brewing this week with Bryson DeChambeau. First, he gave up his US Open spot when he turned pro as he had qualified as an amateur. However, he went out to qualifying day, won his section, and then proceeded to finish T15….pretty darn good! Other than the nice finish last week he is only 1/5 in his last 5 starts.
b. He’s running out of sponsor exemptions so he needs a good finish if he wants to avoid going to Q school and earning his card the hard way.
c. Like Furyk, Dechambeau just joined the tour right after The Masters so he does not have enough stats accumulated to qualify for the PGA rankings, at least by my research.
d. At 8,800 I think he presents great value to pair with Summerhays and Beyong Hun An.
e. Target Points-85+(Top 10 Finish 15+birdies)

5. John Senden– $7,200
a. John popped on my screener this week, and for good reason. He has above average stats at 44th in Bounce back, 50th in BoB%, 49th in Par 4 scoring, 30th in Good Drive % and 39th in SGP.
b. He has made the cut in four of his last six starts with three Top 20 finishes.
c. He’s also never missed a cut here in 4 tries with his best finish being 18th in 2008.
d. Target Points*- 80 (Top 20 position, 10+ birdies)

6. Lucas Glover– $6,500
a. A former Us Open Champ, I hear his name discussed among analysts quite often. He ranks 41st in all around, 2nd in GIR, and 10th in Good Drive %.
b. He’s only 3/6 in his last 6 but when he’s made the cut he’s finished well, 31st, 8th, and 33rd. Coming off an MC at Oakmont I expect a good bounce back for Lucas.
c. 4/5 here at Congressional with a 5th and a 12th place finish on his resume.
d. Target Points*- 80 (Top 20 position, plus 14-17 birdies)

7. Tim Wilkinson– $6,000
a. TIMMY! Had he been a part of the Draft Kings player pool when I wrote the article last week I probably would have had him as my less than 6000k guy to own. But regardless of that, the price point here seems so low for a week field.
b. His recent form looks pretty compelling 5/6 with a 4th and 11th mixed in.
c. He’s also 2/2 here with his best finish coming back in 2014 with a 24th.
d. His stats are by far the best in his price category. 8th in bounce back 16th in par 4 scoring, 10th in scrambling and 18th in strokes gained putting, I think he presents the best value of anyone in the tournament.
e. Target Points*- 75 (Top 25 position, plus 10+birdies)

8. Jon Rahm– $7300
a. The low amateur at the US Open, Rahm gets another start here at Congressional. Not only was he the low amateur, but he played some great golf earning him a T23, and accumulating 78.5 Draft Kings points.
b. Not much in the way of stats or recent performance, he’s a college player still, but we look for him to turn pro very soon.
c. Jordan Nieburgge is your other college player turning pro entering the field this week.
d. Also keep an eye on Wesley Bryan getting his second straight PGA tour start. He played really well last week, shooting the course record over the weekend in the first round on the Web.com Tour, although he fizzled out and ended up with a T10 finish.

9. Brian Stuard– $5700
a. It’s going to be tough to get me away from Brian Stuard against a weak field and a course that seems to fit his game.
b. At $5700, I feel he has tremendous value, although with 58 players under $6000, almost half the field, you know that picking these guys correct will be very important.
c. 4th in rough proximity, 45th in good drive %, and 29th in scrambling, he seems to be a good fit for this course.
d. He’s made the cut in three of his last 5 with that win at the Zurich.
e. 1/1 here at Congressional coming in 64th.

*Target Points- This is a formula that takes average Draft Kings points divided by their salary and removing the decimal places.

Heading South – Fades

YAY FINALLY! I was 2/2 on Fades last week as Justin Rose was an MC and Bubba, as I mentioned, finished good for someone in the 6500 price range, not 9500. Let’s see if I can make it back to back weeks.

1. Webb Simpson – $8,700
Hate his price. I know he figured out how to putt, but that didn’t save him last week as he missed the cut at Oakmont. Purely because of price, I think you should limit your exposure to Webb this week.

2. Russel Henley– $9,000
I’m going to give it another go on fading Henley this week. Whichever way you want to look at it, I think he comes in overpriced. His stats do match up well for this course, but he has made the cut once in two starts here with that a high finish of 34th place.

That’s it for this week be sure to follow me on Twitter @DFSXpert23 for some fun facts and info!

Jason Rouslin
By Jason Rouslin June 22, 2016 00:13

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