The First Tee

Jason Rouslin
By Jason Rouslin June 7, 2016 00:37

Thanks for joining me for the second edition of the First Tee. A nerve-racking Sunday, and equally as annoying, as there was no live coverage at all throughout the day. In my opinion, even as a golfer, it takes some of the fun out of watching it when you already know what’s going to happen. It was an exciting event but there were definitely some important lessons to be learned for the week.

Weekly Roundup – The Memorial

This marker the fourth week in a row now that a tournament has been affected by the weather, and as I’ve already mentioned, caused programming problems for the final round coverage. The man with the golden locks took the trophy, and of course I’m talking about William McGirt. Scoring conditions were pristine on Thursday and above average on Friday setting the cut line at -2, the lowest it’s ever been for this event.

What did The Memorial show me in terms of DFS? Well, for one, it showed me that you can go 6/6 with three Top 25 players in your lineups and you are still not guaranteed to cash in the higher buy in events. I think much of this had to do with the fact that this was an invitational event with a smaller field size than normal. The other thing that was glaring to me this week at The Memorial, was how to apply course history. Two huge plays this week Jon Curran and Emiliano Grillo both had not been invited here prior to this year. However, when you look at these two they both have played pretty well recently and their stats check in average to above average compared to others in the field. Had I considered their statistics more closely instead of worrying about their lack of tournament history, I certainly would have played them across more lineups. Adam Hadwin & Sorjen Kjeldsen also fell into this same category. This is a trend I will certainly keep an eye on.

Last Week’s Results

In this section I’ll quickly recap how I fared last week, and what I hit and missed on. My DraftKings results were saved a bit by my European Tour showing. Having 23/100 have all 6 golfers make the cut, and 60/100 able to cash, I was able to turn a nice profit. A Nikolas Colsarts late round blow up cost me two lineups in the Top 25, but all in all a good showing. I highly recommend reading The Fantasy Golf Insiders European Preview as that’s where I got almost all of my info. My regular PGA tour didn’t go as planned as I was 0/2 in the $333 this week, even having one lineup with 6/6. A Sunday quad from KJ Choi also knocked down my best chance at the $4.

Where I went Wrong – a fade of the big three would have worked, and sadly I gave the “big 3” all 30% weightings across my lineups where Rory was the only one to come close to giving you a positive return based on the money you had to invest. Rickie Barnes & Johnson Wagner MC’s hurt a lot of my Day/Rory teams. Lastly as mentioned in my “fades” last week Dufner and Simpson both had good weeks. Simpson seems like he has figured out the flat stick using the “Matt Kuchar” method and is back in form again.
Where I went Right – Speaking of Matt Kuchar, looking at my “on the rise” guys he had the best finish a solo 4th. I hit seven of eight picks, with David Hearn as my next best finish after Kuchar with a T27th. In my own lineups I had Emilano Grillo and Adam Hadwin overweight compared to the field.

Player Ownership Analysis

This section will be dedicated to following the major players in DFS Golf, as with a lot of other facets in life it’s important to stay up to date on what the “pros are doing”. Here I’ll take a look into each of their exposures for the week, what worked what didn’t, and a few other facts and figures on the previous week’s contests.

SaahilSud – The love affair continued with Jim Furyk this week, giving him a 70% in the $4 a 97% in the $33, and a 100% weighting in the $333. Those hurt his results a little bit and pending other contests that I don’t have info on, it doesn’t look like it was a good week for this juggernaut.

• Results:
o $4- 500 lineups entered: Best Finish- 60th
o $33- 200 Lineups entered: Best Finish- 157th
o $333- 15 Lineups Entered: Best Finish- 17th

Players Used-
o $4- 37 Players used
o $33- 34 Players used
o $333-27 Players used

• Player Own % – Sample $33- Player Usage Breakdown

Player – Salary, Place, User %, Field %, Variance

Jim Furyk – 7300, 57th, 97.0%, 9.0%, +88.0
Bubba Watson – 9600, 65th, 76.5%, 19.9%, +56.6
Daniel Berger – 7800, 67th 65.0%, 23.6%, +41.4
Rory McIlroy – 12200, 4th 54.0%, 20.7%, +33.3
Robert Streb – 6200, 20th 48.5%, 6.0%, +42.5
Jason Bohn – 5900, 57th 33.0%, 5.6%, +27.4
Dustin Johnson – 10100, 3th 32.0%, 25.4%, +6.6
Justin Thomas – 8200, MC, 31.0%, 10.4%, +20.6
Brendan Steele – 7100, 20th 20.5%, 5.2%, +15.3

Jetblackx – Rickie Fowler may be on Jetblackx no touch list after this week. The MC cost him dearly. Entering the max lineups in the $33 and $4 to go along with 28 lineups in the $333. Lets take a look at his results.

• Results:
o $4- 500 lineups entered: Best Finish- 1555th
o $33- 200 Lineups entered: Best Finish- 480th
o $333- 28 Lineups Entered: Best Finish- 80th

• Players Used-
o $4- 89 Players used
o $33- 55 Players used
o $333-37 Players used

• Player Own % – Player Usage Breakdown

Player – Salary, Place, User %, Field %, Variance

Rickie Fowler – 10300, MC, 79-89.3%, 16.3%, +73.0
Justin Thomas – 8200, MC, 53.6%, 11.9%, +41.7
Bubba Watson – 9600, 67th, 50.0%, 20.8%, +29.2
Robert Streb – 6200, 20th, 42.9%, 9.0%, +33.9
Dustin Johnson – 10100, 4th, 39.3%, 23.4%, +15.9
Kevin Chappell – 7500, 51th, 28.6%, 33.0%, -4.4
Freddie Jacobson – 6000, 51th, 25.0%, 2.6%, +22.4
Jason Bohn – 5900, 51th 25.0%, 6.5%, +18.5
Rory McIlroy – 12200, 4th, 21.4%, 25.3%, -3.9

Preistapp– This week’s high volume players that had a good week, Presitapp, was maxed out on the two smaller buy in contests and had 25 lineups in the $333. An approach similar to mine, I just obviously didn’t pick the right guys, this user was very balanced throughout the three contests, with the high owned % 34.5 % being Dustin Johnson in the $33 contest. He was able to muster 2 top 10’s in the $333 and some other great finishes. Let’s take a look.

• Results:
o $4- 500 lineups entered: Best Finish- 213th
o $33- 200 Lineups entered: Best Finish- 16th
o $333- 25 Lineups Entered: Best Finish- 4th and 7th

• Players Used-
o $4- 58 Players used
o $33- 54 Players used
o $333-32 Players used

• Player Own % – Sample $33- Dogleg Player Usage Breakdown

Player – Salary Place User % Field % Variance

Dustin Johnson – 10100, 4th, 34.5%, 25.4%, +9.1
Bubba Watson – 9600, 65th, 31.0%, 19.9%, +11.1
Matsuyama – 10600, MC, 30.0%, 26.7%, +3.3
Jason Day – 12400, 20th, 28.5%, 19.4%, +9.1
Daniel Berger – 7800, 67th, 27.0%, 23.6%, +3.4
Jamie Lovemark – 7000, 52th, 25.0%, 11.8%, +13.2
Kevin Chappell – 7500, 52th, 24.5%, 25.3%, -0.8
Paul Casey – 8800, MC, 24.0%, 11.5%, +12.5
Matt Kuchar – 9900, 3rd, 22.5%, 22.5%, 0.0
K.J. Choi – 6000, 40th, 22.5%, 9.2%, +13.3
William McGirt – 6500, 1st, 22.0%, 7.7%, +14.3
Schwartzel – 8000, 11th, 20.5%, 22.0%, -1.5
Jason Dufner – 8400, 27th, 20.0%, 12.8%, +7.2

JAE686 – A new addition to the player focus list this week, this user was maxed out across all big three contests. Its hard to overcome a Rickie Fowler MC especially if you had him in over 50% of all your lineups.

• Results:
o $4- 500 lineups entered: Best Finish- 60th
o $33- 200 Lineups entered: Best Finish- 97th
o $333- 40 Lineups entered: Best Finish- 16th.

• Players Used-
o $4- 61 Players used
o $33- 54 Players used
o $333-37 Players used

• Player Own % – Sample $33- Player Usage Breakdown

Player – Salary, Place, User %, Field %, Variance

Rickie Fowler – 10300, MC, 58.0%, 16.7%, +41.3
Byeong-Hun An – 7700, 11th, 54.0%, 4.7%, +49.3
Rory McIlroy – 12200, 4th, 39.0%, 20.7%, +18.3
Harold Varner – 6500, 57th, 35.0%, 4.9%, +30.1
Schwartzel – 8000, 11th, 32.5%, 22.0%, +10.5
Daniel Berger – 7800, 67th, 32.0%, 23.6%, +8.4
Phil Mickelson – 9100, 20th, 26.0%, 5.2%, +20.8
Kevin Chappell – 7500, 48th, 20.5%, 25.3%, -4.8
Bubba Watson – 9600, 65th, 19.5%, 19.9%, -0.4
J.B. Holmes – 7600, 4th, 18.0%, 9.3%, +8.7

Emile Heskey– Last week’s breakthrough performer used his winnings to go max on the $33, $4 as well as 17 lineups in the $333. Sadly, for this user the strong performance did not happen on back to back weeks.

• Results:
o $4- 500 lineups entered: Best Finish- 2161st
o $33- 200 Lineups entered: Best Finish- 208th
o $333- 17 Lineups Entered: Best Finish- 71st

• Players Used-
o $4- 51 Players used
o $33- 41 Players used
o $333-20 Players used

• Player Own % – Sample $33 Player Usage Breakdown

Player – Salary, Place, User %, Field %, Variance

Kevin Chappell – 7500, 48th, 85.0%, 25.3%, +59.7
Daniel Berger – 7800, 67th, 81.5%, 23.6%, +57.9
Russell Knox – 7600, 64th, 70.0%, 13.2%, +56.8
Jason Dufner – 8400, 33rd, 54.5%, 12.8%, +41.7
Schwartzel – 8000, 11th, 51.0%, 22.0%, +29.0
Matt Kuchar – 9900, 4th, 46.0%, 22.5%, +23.5
Jim Furyk – 7300, 52nd, 21.5%, 9.0%, +12.5
Bill Haas – 7700, MC, 18.5%, 10.5%, +8.0

Kunu88 – This week’s breakthrough performer, Kunu88 had success throughout all contests with at most 39% of the max lineups. Kunu was able to use his strong overweight on Rory McilRoy (90% throughout) to match up with a 30% weighting on William McGirt and others.

• Results:
o $4- 62 lineups entered: Best Finish- 109th (75% of lineups cashed)
o $33- 58 Lineups entered: Best Finish- 5th, 13th,14th,24th,27th, 64th,75th, 89th.
o $333- 6 Lineups Entered: Best Finish- 3rd,8th,74th,171

• Players Used-
o $4- 27 Players used
o $33- 27 Players used
o $333-16 Players used

• Player Own % – Sample $33- Player Usage Breakdown

Player – Salary, Place, User %, Field %, Variance

Rory McIlroy – 12200, 4th, 89.7%, 20.7%, +68.9
Robert Streb – 6200, 20th, 37.9%, 6.0%, +32.0
Kevin Chappell – 7500, 48th, 36.2%, 25.3%, +10.9
K.J. Choi – 6000, 52nd, 32.8%, 9.2%, +23.5
Jason Bohn – 5900, 52nd 29.3%, 5.6%, +23.7
William McGirt – 6500, 1st, 29.3%, 7.7%, +21.6
Dustin Johnson – 10100, 3rd, 27.6%, 25.4%, +2.2
Bubba Watson – 9600, 65th, 25.9%, 19.9%, +6.0
Danny Lee – 7500, 52nd, 25.9%, 9.5%, +16.3
Brendan Steele – 7100, 20th, 25.9%, 5.2%, +20.6

Those are the 6 players I focused on for the Dean & Deluca, however I have started a list of other players I will be following in the coming weeks. They include: SamENole, AshyL4rry, Hardfour, I_Slewfoot_U, aejones, pwnasaurus, Cubsfan333. If there are any other user’s that all you readers would like me to look in on please feel free to email me or Tweet me their username!

The FedEx St. Jude Classic

The week before the US Open at Oakmont sees the tour stop in Memphis, where a rather weak field will play The TPC Southwind Course, which means back to a par 70 layout. Only 2 par 5’s on the course and another relatively short one at just over 7200 yards. Lastly, and believe it or not there is NO BAD WEATHER predictions for the entire weekend wow I’ll believe it when I see it.

1. Birdie Or Better %- Always going to be number 1 on the list because of Draft Kings Scoring.
a. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour *Participating in this Tournament:
i. D.Johnson-1, Mickelson-7, Koepka-17, Palmer-18, Loupe-22

2. Approach Shots 150-175
a. 2015 & 2014 winners Fabian Gomez and Ben Crane highest ranked category (28th 40th). According to data this is also the where the most approach shots come from. *27.8%
b. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour in order
i. Ancer-1 Wilkinson-2, Woodland-3, Kraft-5, Garrigugs-6

3. Tee 2 Green- A common stat amongst the top 3 finishers here in the last 4 years.
a. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour *Participating in this Tournament:
i. D.Johnson-5, Mickelson-12, Woodland-14, Garrigus-17, Campbell-27

4. Strokes Gained Putting- This will always be on the list. You putt for dough you drive for show. Simple.
a. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour* Participating in this tournament
i. Stricker-2, Donadlson-3, Mickelson-5, Landry-8, Wilkinson-11

5. Approach Shots a. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour* Participating in this tournament
i. Cink-2, Collins-4, Smith-7, Stiles-12, Curran-13

6. Odd Stat of the week- Back 9 Scoring- Oddly this stat showed up having a good avg. amongst top finishers. Because of the 2 tee start, I won’t use much weight for this stat.

Player Focus – On the Rise

As I mentioned above this is a rather weak field, with DJ and Phil the thrill checking in as your top salaries. Personally I feel DJ is prime for a win with his vastly improved wedge game this year and pretty good putting. However, as we’ve seen before and many times prior you don’t need to pick the winner to win big. To keep me in check I’ll always give my stats on how I did the previous week and where I stand overall. Last week, I hit 7/8 picks – Top Finish T4

1. Jon Curran – $8,300
a. How can Jon not be #1 on the rise. He’s 5/5 cuts made with a 2nd and 9th.
b. His stats check in above average ranks 23rd tour in strokes gained putting and 13th from approach shots within 100 yards.
c. As we have seen with Jon last week course history isn’t truly relevant for him, I guess? For what is worth he’s 1/1 here with a 53rd.
d. At only $8300 you can pair him with DJ and still average above 7k for your other 4 players.
e. Target Points*- 90 Points (Top 10 Position and 15+ Birdies)

2. Tim Wilkinson – $7,200
a. 5/5 in his last 5 appearances with a 4th and 11th.
b. 2/2 in in his last 2 appearances here at the FESJC 2/5 overall.
c. His stat’s check in second best overall behind DJ. 11th in Strokes gaine putting, 2nd in approach shots from 150-175 and 14th in <100.
d. Curran Wilkinson Johnson… Still can average over 7k per player
e. Target Points*- 85 Points (Top 20 position and 13+Birdies)

3. Colt Knost – $9700
a. After back to back weeks of top 5 finishes, Colt cooled off @ the D & D. I’m not ready to give up on him just yet.
b. His game and stats set up will for this course as he hits a very accurate ball 2nd on tour in Driving Accuarcy and is also 26th in strokes gained putting.
c. He is 2/4 here but those 2 are a 12th and 15th
d. Target Points*- 95 Points (Top 10 position and 15+Birdies)

4. Gary Woodland – $10,400
a. Great showing last week for Gary, even with a lackluster Sunday he still managed a T4. He’s also 5/5 with 3 other top 25’s in his last 5 events.
b. Holds a 2/3 record here with a 18th and 37th.
c. Gary ranks third on tour from approach shots from 150-175r and holds a 14th ranking in tee to green.
d. 10,400 for Gary shows how weak of a field it really is. I think it’s a bit of a stretch to pay that amount of him when we are used to seeing him in the 8000-9000 range.
e. Target Points- 95(Top 5 Finish 20+birdies)

5. Kyle Reifers – $9,200
a. Honestly, he should have been on this list last week coming into the memorial (home state event) he had back to back top 10’s. At a 7400 price tag it was a great value at a T20 finish. The salary is high this week, but he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on this weekend.
b. His stat’s don’t check out that well with BoB% checks in at 56th on tour.
c. 0/2 here at the FESJC.
d. Target Points*- 90 (Top 10 position, plus 16-19 birdies)

6. Wesley Bryan – $9,000
a. By far the highest price I’ve ever seen for a tour guy making his first appearance of the year with the big boys. He is the talk of the tournament and he’s even got his own event on Wednesday night. The event is his brother and himself performing trick shots. See the event here. In all fairness its some pretty cool stuff, if you haven’t seen it check it out on YouTube here.
b. In his nine starts on the Tour, he’s made the cut eight times, finished in the Top 25 six times and won twice.
c. His stats on the tour check in the absolute best for this golf course. He’s ranked 3rd in birdie average at 4.59 per round, best scoring average, best putting average, and number 1 in total birdies.
d. Target Points*- 90 (Top 10 position, plus 14-17 birdies)

7. Bud Cauley – $7,200
a. 2/3 since coming back from an injury and had Saturday gone a little better for him would have scored his second straight top 25.
b. Because he was out almost all of the beginning of the year I can’t find much in the way of stat’s for him.
c. With an 0/2 record here, I think a lot of people may stray away from him, but he looks like he’s healthy and on a mission.
d. Target Points*- 85 (Top 20 position, plus 14-17 birdies)

8. Lee McCoy – $6,700
a. A handful of young college talent making their debut as a pro this week, and Mccoy is one of them. We saw him give a check off 100K+ back to the PGA after a 4th place finish at the Valspar. Granted he did grow up playing the course, it was an impressive showing for the then Amateur McCoy. It’s hard to know which young college stud to pick but because there’s some semblance of a track record I’m going to go with McCoy. It’s my belief there will be a Bryson DeChambeau like first tourney as a pro finish from one of the college guys this weekend.
b. Other college golfers who will be playing their first tourney as a pro are:
i. Matthew NeSmith
ii. Robby Shelton
c. Amateurs In the field
i. Frederick Janneck
ii. Phillip Barbaree
iii. Hayden Springer

9. Abraham Ancer – $5,600
a. Going out on a limb this week. The reason? He made his last cut and came in 48th, a good value for someone that salary, and he’s ranked number 1 in approach shorts from 150-175 and is a pretty accurate driver ranked 32nd on tour. I think he’s got a better shot than Jason Gore to make the cut.
b. Target Points*- 65 (41-50 Position- Plus 9-12 Birdies)

*Target Points- This is a formula that takes average DraftKings points divided by their salary and removing the decimal places.

Heading South – Fades

1. Boo Weekly – $8,000
Way too much for Boo. I paid 7200 and got a solid MC when everything looked good at the D & D. Stat’s look bad but his course history looks pretty compelling. If you use CH as one of your weightings I’d be ok with you playing him.

2. Luke Donald – $8700
If he plays, I won’t play him much, and at the time of writing this he I still in the field. He didn’t play well the last 3 days at the Memorial, and has only played here once. He has to go back Tuesday Morning to compete in a playoff for a spot at the US Open. If he wins that, he said he won’t play this weekend, if he loses he says he will play, but I can’t imagine his heart will be in it.

Jason Rouslin
By Jason Rouslin June 7, 2016 00:37

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