The First Tee by Jason Rouslin (@dfsxpert23)

Welcome to the newest column on Fantasy Golf Insider, The First Tee. My name is Jason, and I have joined the guys here at FGI as their newest analyst providing you with an inside look from a player’s perspective each week. As a daily fantasy golf player, I am here each week to give you a guide on some of the trends that I see from week to week in the various contests that I enter. Ever wonder what certain owners are looking at from week to week and what type of strategies they are executing in order to achieve consistent results? I play with the best in the game and have had the chance to watch what they play, who they play and the types of styles they employ from week to week based on the tournament and the strength of the field. Beyond that, I have posted some solid results to start the season and will pass on some inside tips and picks on the things that I am looking at for each event and how I build my lineups from week to week.

In my former life, I was an Assistant Golf Pro who took an interest in investing and turned that into a successful career as a Financial Advisor after attaining my MBA in Finance. As a longtime fantasy sports enthusiast, I have been onboard with the DraftKings craze over the last couple of years and parlayed my strength with numbers and spreadsheets into a winning formula. While many analysts are afraid to play their picks outside of a few smaller buy-in events each week, you can frequently catch me contending for top finishes in the larger buy-in GPP events. I put my money behind my picks and you will see my results firsthand. My Twitter handle is “dfsxpert23”. Give me a follow to see some of my most recent results and to talk about all things DFS golf related.

This column will be your weekly guide to gain some perspective on top level players, get a few strategy tips from someone competing against them and to help you build your bankroll steadily throughout the season. I will end each column with a few of my favorite picks and fades for the week. Thank you ahead of time for the warm welcome to the FGI family. I am excited to be a part of the team and want all of you to consider me a resource for help with any questions that come up with regards to strategy or lineups construction each week.

Weekly Roundup – Dean & Deluca Invitational

Yet again another tournament that was affected by the weather. Both the first two rounds were delayed due to weather concerns, and a Saturday cut morning cut was in order. The cut came in on the nose with 70 golfers +1 or better. I’m sure that absolutely pissed off Kevin Chappell, Chez Reavie and their owners that had to watch the PGA Tour App constantly to see if they’d be playing the weekend or not, and it really did come down to the last few groups. I don’t think I’ve ever hit refresh as many times on my phone as I did Saturday morning.

The D & D showed us a lot of things as far as fantasy golf is concerned. First, sometimes it pays to go for the high priced guy, I.E Jordan Spieth, as he had a fantastic finishing 9 and was able to get the W. However, we also learned that you don’t need to pick the winner of the tournament to win a contest. Check out the results posted on the FGI home page and you will notice that Spieth is conspicuously absent from the winning roster in both the $33 and $300 GPP events. for this week’s GPP Contest results. Second, we learned that doing the contrarian boom or bust strategy doesn’t always work out so well for some high level owners.

Player Ownership Analysis

This section will be dedicated to following the major players in DFS Golf, as with a lot of other facets in life it’s important to stay up to date on what the “pros are doing”. Here I’ll take a look into each of their exposures for the week, what worked, what did not work out, and a few other facts and figures on the previous week’s contests.

SaahilSud – If you know the industry well, then you know as always with Saahil, he went with the ‘go big or go home’ approach to his play this week and he went home this week. After a big week at the Byron Nelson where nearly every contrarian pick hit in a big way leading to a huge week, his high risk, high reward strategy had a bit of setback at the Dean & Deluca Invitational. His downfall this week came in the form of Jim Furyk. A 100% exposure throughout ALL of his contests, Saahil’s week was doomed on Friday afternoon when Furyk posted a +3 total to miss the cut. Even a 100% exposure to Spieth in the $300 GPP and over 70% in the $33 GPP couldn’t help him. Other high % owned guys:

• Jimmy Walker- T29: 100% ($300 GPP) 65.5% ($33 GPP)
• Jason Bohn- T34: 86.7% ($300 GPP) 52% ($33 GPP)
• Vaughn Taylor-T55: 33.3% ($300 GPP) 47% ($33 GPP)

Jetblackx – A consistent player you find near the top of the contests come Sunday afternoon. Here at FGI we see him as one of the best. This week was a rather difficult one for him as his best finish was 32nd in the $300. What really hurt him this week is the overweight he put on Adam Scott, T55. His exposure on Scott was a 97.3 % owned in the 3$, 76.5% in the 33$ and 93.7% in the 300$.

• Jason Dufner- T6: 73.3% ($300 GPP) 86.5% ($33 GPP)
• Emilliano Grillo- T55: 93.3% ($300 GPP) 86.5% ($33 GPP)
• Jimmy Walker- T29: 80% ($300 GPP) 90.5% ($33 GPP)

DaGodFather– Working with the same 10 lineups across the $33 and the $300 he had 3/10 with all 6 guys make the cut, which propelled him to three top 30 finishes in the $300, and can only assume a decent profit for the week. His top guys owned in the 10 lineups were:

• David Hearn- T17 : 80%
• Ryan Palmer- T3: 70%
• Jordan Spieth-1: 60%
• Steve Stricker- T47: 60%
• Emiliano Grillo- T55- 60%

CSURAM88– Csuram really focuses on the high dollar entry games, with little to no entries in the lower buy in games. With only one lineup in the 33$, and none in the 3$, we will take a look at his strategy in the 300$ and what his best finish was. He ended the week with three teams in the top 60 with his best finish being 34th. Top players owned were:

• Emiliano Grillo-T55: 80%
• Patrick Reed-T15: 46.7%
• Ryan Palmer-T3: 40%
• Harris English-2: 40%
• Book Weekly-MC: 40%
• Sean O’Hair-T34: 40%;

Emile Heskey– A breakthrough week for this user, he won the $33 Dogleg without Jordan Spieth in his lineup. He also had some other great finishes this week – $33- 9th, 23rd, $300- 34th, $3- 5th. How could he have been so successful if he didn’t even pick the winner!? Let’s take a look: Figures are the average throughout the lineups:

• Ryan Palmer-T3: 65%
• Matt Kuchar-T6: 80%
• William McGirt-T47:80%
• Colt Knost- T67: 50%
• Jason Dufner-T6: 50%
• Harris English-2: 15%

ChiptoleAddict– Maybe the “food safety” problem has come back to the restaurant chain and is affecting the user known as “chipotleaddict”. He was only able to muster one top 50 with a 9th in the $33 and had maximum entries in the $3 and $33 to go along with 7 in the $300. His top player exposures were: (all 200 lineups looked to be the same in both the $3 and the $33) :

• Daniel Summerhays- T47: 85%
• Adam Scott- T55: 76.5%
• Scott Piercy- T67: 71%
• Jim Furyk-MC: 55%
• Harris English-2: 53.5%

Those are the 6 players I focused on for the Dean & Deluca, however I have started a list of other players I will be following in the coming weeks. They include: SamENole, AshyL4rry, Hardfour, I_Slewfoot_U, aejones, pwnasaurus, Cubsfan333. If there are any other user’s that all you readers would like me to look in on please feel free to email me or Tweet me their username!

The Memorial

Finally, we are back to a normal par 72 layout after back to back weeks on par 70 layouts. The course sits at just shy of 7300 yards and features short par 5s, with the longest being 563. Thus Par 5 scoring and Birdie or Better % will be high on my list of key stats. Our staff does a great job giving you an in depth course preview, so that we aren’t redundant I’ll talk about the stats that I am focusing on for this week.

1. Birdie Or Better %- Aforementioned Short Par 5’s, 2 on each side, it will give players the chance to make some eagles. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour in order 1-5: Spieth, Matsuyama, D.Johnson, McIlroy, Day

2. Par 5 Scoring- For recent winners and top finishers this stat always seems to have a high ranking vs the field. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour *Participating in this Tournament: McIlroy-1,Fowler-4,Day-5,Woodland-5,Watson-8

3. Strokes Gained Putting- It’s no secret, to win you have to putt well. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour* Participating in this tournament: Day-1, Mickelson-3, Hadwin-5, Spieth-6,Harman-7

4. Approach Shots 175<>200 Yards- With multiple +470-yard par 4’s approach shots from this distance are key at Muirfield.Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour* Participating in this tournament: Jason Bohn-5, Bubba Watson-6, Daniel Berger-7, Matsuyama-7, Bradley-12

5. Scrambling- With 77 bunkers in play here at The Memorial, and long par 4’s, I believe scrambling is a key stat this week. Top Ranked Players on PGA Tour* Participating in this tournament: Reed-2, Lovemark-5, Stuard-6, Donald-7, Reavie-8, knox-9

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Player Focus – On the Rise

This week features a very deep field coming to The Memorial. With the three top ranked players in the world all playing, you know that means at least 3 guys over 12k. Since it’s impossible to get all three in your lineup, and if you’re like me having a hard time choosing one of the three, I’ve decided to give them equal weightings throughout my lineups. Here I will give you a few ideas on who I think are good to pair with Spieth/McIlroy/Day, and players you may want to focus on.

1. Kevin Chappell– $7,500

a. The MC Colonial isn’t enough for me to take Chappell off the “on the rise” list especially with his salary this week.
b. 3 top 10’s in his last Six starts including 2 top 5’s.
c. #35 on tour for Birdie or better %. (DraftKings loves birdies and eagles) 41st in par 5 scoring and 46th in scrambling.
d. Only 3/6 cuts here at the Memorial but one of three does include a second place finish in 2013.
e. His value. You can pair him with the top 3 players and still average over 7500 per player.
f. Target Points*- 75 Points (Top 25 Position and 15+ Birdies)

2. Daniel Summerhays– $6,900

a. Posted a solid showing last week coming in a T47
b. He is 3/5 here including a 4th in 2012
c. An exceptional putter ranked 14th on tour in strokes gained putting. He also bodes a 29th on tour for par 5 scoring.
d. Again the value here is great. Only taking on 100 more dollars of salary, you can still pair him up with a lot of guys in the high price category, and still get some very consistent golfers at the 7000$ price range. As with Chappell I expect him to be very highly owned in the larger buy-in games.
e. Target Points*- 98 Points (Top 5 position and 20+Birdies)
f. Target Exposure*- 25%

3. Matt Kuchar– $9,900

a. A past champion and runner up, Matt sports one of if not the best Course history of any golfer in the field this week. Oh also sports 3 other top tens. 7/7 in cuts made.
b. His recent form is just crazy consistent.6th , 3rd , 3rd in his last 3 appearances.
c. With his salary coming down 1100 because of the stronger field, this presents a great opportunity to get Kuchar at a lower price. Look for him to be pretty highly owned in all formats.
d. Target Points*-88 (Top Ten position, plus 17-20 birdies) I like him for a value based lineup, suitable for cash games or larger $ entry games.

4. Kevin Na– $8,100

a. His recent form, only 1 top 10 in 4 tries, may turn a lot of people off from him this week as his salary is also a little high. Course history however looks good with a second place finish in 2014. He’s 4/5 in cuts made here.
b. I like him for a contrarian play this week. When comparing him to last week’s golfers, I expect him to be in the Jim Furyk category with about 5% owned.
c. His stats are just “ok” with a birdie or better % ranking him 23rd on tour.
d. Target Points*- 90 (Top 10 position, plus 16-19 birdies)

5. Luke Donald– $7,200

a. Playing really well as of late 4/5 with 2 top 15’s, the shorter layout sets up nicely for Luke.
b. 6/6 in cuts made including four top 15’s here at The Memorial.
c. Scrambling is the key to Luke’s game, coming in ranked 7th on tour, a Key Stat for this week.
d. Target Points*- 80 (Top 25 position, plus 14-17 birdies)

6. Charles Howell III– $7,400

a. Coming in 3/5 cuts made in his last 5 appearances, with all three being good finishes, I like Charles to continue the strong season here at The Memorial.
b. His course history is average with his best finish being a 21st in 2013. 3/3 in the last 3 years and 4/6 lifetime.
c. His key stats check in above average, 23rd in scrambling, 25th in birdie or better, and 14th in par 5 scoring.
d. Target Points*- 80 (Top 25 position, plus 14-17 birdies)

7. David Hearn– $6,700

a. A huge surprise last week, David capped off a nice weekend coming in t17th. If you went Spieth last week, he had to have been one of the guys you pick if you wanted to win big. 4/6 in cuts made his last 6 appearances.
b. He comes in sporting a 3 for 4 record here at the memorial with all three finishes coming in the 20’s.
c. He’s rather lackluster when it comes to key stats, with his best ranking coming in at 29th on tour for approach shots between 175-200.
d. Target Points*- 70 (25-30 position, plus 13-16 birdies)

8. Ricky Barnes– $5,900

a. I will always give you my below 6000 priced guy, and this week its Ricky Barnes. Coming off back to back good weeks (42,24) I like his recent form in this price category.
b. 37th in strokes gained putting, and coming in at 19th on approach shots from 175-200 yards, I like the stat’s this week for Ricky.
c. Target Points*- 58 (41-50 Position- Plus 9-12 Birdies)
d. Target Exposure- 2%

*Target Points- This is a formula that takes average DraftKings points divided by their salary and removing the decimal places.
*Target Exposure- This is what I plan to use each golfer in all of my 250+ lineups.

Heading South – Fades

1. Jason Dufner– $8,400

Coming off a great week at Colonial, I’m just not quite sold on the return of the Duff. Only 2/4 here at the Memorial, Duff will be a fade, but not a full fade.

2. Webb Simpson– $7,500

It was really great to see Webb play strongly at the D&D. His unique finish/swing make him fun to watch, and overall seems like a nice guy. However, he’s only 2/5 here and with a new kid at home coming off a good week, he might want time with his family this weekend. I think a MC is on order for Webb.

Good Luck this week!

-DFSxpert23

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