The Daily Spin – Zurich Classic

The Daily Spin – Zurich Classic

RECAP

The refrain remains the same. Play Scottie or lose. I cannot remember the last time a golfer won The Masters and then went on to Harbour Town and played well, let alone won the tournament. At this point, we are in the Scottie Era. What is scary is that I think he has the potential to make it last for many years to come. His tee to green game is on another level from any other player in the world. We talked about his struggles with his putter and how his results would turn around if he could even manage to get his SGP numbers up to zero. Last weekend, his short game was just into the positive range and he managed to win with ease. He will now be able to go home and rest for a couple of weeks as his wife managed to hold off on having their first child until he won two more huge golf tournaments. Scottie’s caddie has now earned more money than Rory McIlroy this season.

I should not laugh at Rory. My stubbornness killed me again last weekend. With the pregnancy of his wife looming and the potential for a letdown after winning The Masters, I felt like maybe I could get away from him, have an extra high dollar player at the top and not have to dig into the $6k range for players. In the back of my head as I wrote my column last week, I thought, just play Scottie. He’s not leaving. He is not going to withdraw. But by then I was so far down the road in not rostering him that all I could muster was writing that I do not blame you if you do play him. With the no-cut event in place, the only real worry was the WD and while that certainly should have been considered, I could have done a better job of balancing that risk against the risk of others underperforming.

Speaking of underperforming, hello Tommy Fleetwood. I hate paying up for Tommy, but he feels appropriately priced given his history and recent form. Famous last words. He had the classic Tommy finish at Augusta. He was nowhere near contending, but a nice Sunday helped him run up the board to a third place finish. Tommy was a mess the first two days and only slightly better over the weekend. His putting was poor, but it was his irons that were really awful. He lost over five strokes in his approach play, continuing a negative trend that has hurt him all season. I got what deserved for paying up for Tommy.

The other high dollar golfer I paid up for was Xander. He is a Top-10 machine, especially in events like this one. All facets of his game are looking strong right now, but he just is not able to get that to translate into wins. He started slow on Thursday and that killed him. A strong performance on Friday and a decent round Saturday put him back into position for a potential Top-5 finish, but the final round was terrible from tee to green again and he slipped back to 18th place. With X and Tommy up top both underperforming, I was drawing dead immediately.

About the only play that worked out for me was Brian Harman. He was not great at Augusta, but Harbour Town is a natural fit for him. He finished with a flourish in the final round, shooting a 64 which moved him up to 12th place, exactly what I needed from him at $7800. I thought I had good balance with my other three value plays, but the all more or less flopped. Cam Davis was in great form and had strong history at the course so naturally he folded up and finished 49th. Taylor Moore has played well all season and has not missed a cut. He played well in the first round, but that was about it. Lucas Glover was not a total bust, but blew the bonus in the final round when he was in position for a potential Top-15 finish. None of these finishes would have hurt me if X and Tommy had done their job for me and been at the top of their game, but that did not happen so it was a frustrating week.

Course

• TPC Louisiana
• Par 72
• 7,400 yards
• Bermuda

TPC Louisiana is a 7,425 yard, Par 72 course with four Par 5 and four Par 3 holes. It is a Pete Dye design with wide fairways that are not difficult to hit. The Par 3 holes are on the longer side and will present the biggest obstacle to scoring for the week. It is one of the easier courses of tour in terms of scoring and one that does not tend to punish players for being inaccurate off the tee so long as the are solid from mid range and further out with their irons and can hit greens. It tends to play towards the bombers as there is added emphasis on Par 5 scoring and driving distance in addition to the traditional statistics that we tend to see every week. Over the years, a wide variety of players have done well here, so there is no need to focus specifically on the bombers and since there are not a lot of high caliber bombers in the field (guys who do anything beyond hitting it 300 yards off the tee), you should be looking for a good mix of players.

Course Comps

• TPC Sawgrass
• Stadium Course
• Harbour Town
• TPC Scottsdale
• TPC San Antonio
• Jackson

Field

After The Masters and then the RBC Heritage, we are right on schedule for a couple of lesser field events. While the PGA Tour axed a fan favorite event by getting rid of the Match Play tournament, they kept the team event which has almost no interest among the fanbase and even less among the golfers on tour. Since it is an event played with a partner, there are plenty of stars that will simply choose to sit this one out, though some of these guys play together every year and also in international play so do not discard that as those teams usually gel here quickly, even if one of the players is not in great form at the outset. We also get a 65 year-old golfer that barely even plays on the Champions Tour who is a partner since his son is the caddie of Eric Cole. This field is weaker than normal since the RBC Heritage was an elevated event which means that most of the best players in the world have teed it up in consecutive weeks and are a little spent after such big tournaments and will now look to work in some time off to start preparing for the rest of the season. Again, with the elevated tournaments, we are going to continue to see more loaded fields during the season, but when an event is not elevated, the quality of the fields really suffers.

Weather

• Local Forecast – https://www.windfinder.com/weatherforecast/metairie

The weather looks good this week. The winds are light for much of the day on Thursday at around 6-8 mph in the morning and climbing to 10 mph in the afternoon with temperatures in the mid to high 70s. On Friday, there are more gusts expected in the forecast, but right now, I am not seeing a huge edge either way. The winds are expected to be 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph with cloudy conditions expected. I have not seen the hourly numbers yet, but it does not look like there is going to be a wave advantage yet though it is too close to call on Monday night. Be sure to check our e-mail on Wednesday night where we make our final call on the weather outlook for the week.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
• Strokes Gained Putting: 25%
• Birdie or Better Percentage: 20%
• Scrambling: 10%
• Par 5 Scoring: 10%
• Proximity: 10%

 

Cash Game Plays

Top Tier

Cantlay/Schauffele – These two have been a team together at this event the last three years with finishes of 11th, 1st and 4th. They are very experience team players and both are regulars at the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup each year, certainly an advantage over most other players in the field who only get experience in this type of event once a year. Cantlay has played this event every year since it became a team event so I think it is very intentional that he schedules this tournament with the specific thought being that it will help him to stay sharp for international competition. Both guys are playing well this season, especially Xander, but Cantlay did turn it up last week with a 3rd place finish at Harbour Town. Both guys are at the top of my comp course model as well. In cash games, this is where my team will start. I am done being stubborn.

Fitzpatrick Bros – Did you catch the new season of Full Swing on Netflix yet? They did a whole episode following Alex and Matt and it was one of the better episodes of the season. Alex has had a front row seat in watching his brother ascend to the elite levels of professional golf. It has left him feeling a little overshadowed which is natural, but he has worked hard to move up the ranks of the Challenge Tour and now onto the DP World Tour. I love a good narrative on weeks like this and there is none better than playing to try to help your brother to achieve his dream of getting his PGA Tour card. They finished 19th here last year and Alex went on to make a bit of a run at The Open Championship last summer before falling back to 17th. This is an event they both have circled on their calendars and finding players with that type of motivation is the key for an event that others might just be playing for fun.

Hoge/McNealy – If Mav can tee off and Hoge can hit the approach and then Mav can play around the green and Hoge can putt, this team should be set based on the rolling numbers over the last sixteen rounds. Hoge is having a really nice season with seven Top-25 finishes along with a couple of Top-10s. He ranks 2nd on tour in SGAPP and his putter has been all season as well. That should work well with the reemergence of Maverick McNealy whose only real weakness is his approach play. Mav has not been great in his last couple of starts, but had three Top-15 finishes in his previous four starts prior to that.

Taylor/Hadwin – Team Canada is another narrative street addition for me this week. This fall is the Presidents Cup and the International side has had their ass handed to them every year except for 1998, their only win in fourteen matches along with a tie in 2003. This year, the event will take place in Canada so the boys are going to want to be at their best this fall and both are currently in the Top-10 for points to qualify for the International side. They paired well together last year for a 2nd place finish. Taylor has two wins on tour over the last year so while he might not always be the most consistent player, he has demonstrated tremendous upside. Conners and Pendrith offer the same narrative at 9500 and were both on the 2022 Presidents Cup team. However, they combined for zero total points so it was not the most inspiring of efforts.

 

Middle Tier

Horschel/Alexander – Sometimes at this tournament, you pick a team based on one player alone and this would be that exactly. I do not care at all about Tyson Alexander. This is a pure Billy play. I have discussed at length in my columns how Billy got himself refocused in the offseason to get his game back on track and that culminated with a win last weekend at Puntacana. He has had some missed cuts along the way, but he is back to having a lot more success this year with five Top-25s and three Top-10s. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in SGTOT, he ranks well on comp courses and he has two wins at this tournament, once as an individual and once as a team. I do not think a win at Puntacana in an alternate field event is going to be a huge distraction compared to a more marquee tournament. He has been too good here the last five years for me to overlook him.

Mitchell/Dahman – Dahman did not inspire much confidence for me in his game when I watched him on Full Swing last season. He seemed like a man that was not totally dedicated to his craft. He is out there playing every week, but he admitted that he was not putting in the extra time and was reluctant to talk to a sports psychiatrist at the urging of his caddie. However, he strikes me as a golfer that will go all out for a playing partner as he has done repeatedly here with three Top-25 finishes in five starts. This is the ‘tee to green’ team of the week. Both of these guys are incredible off the tee and on approach. I am not sure who is going to make a putt, but these guys should be around for the weekend.

Thompson/Novak – This could be a darkhorse team this week. Thompson has four Top-25 finishes in his last eight starts and Novak had a recent run of three straight Top-10 finishes. Both guys rank in the Top-20 in SGTOT over the last 24 rounds. They do not really have any experience playing together, but Novak did finish 13th here last year.

 

Lower Tier

Moore/NeSmith – Prior to the dud that Moore posted at Harbour Town, he had three straight Top-20 finishes and has not missed a cut all year. He ranks 5th in SGTG and 8th in SGTOT over the last sixteen rounds among this field. On the other hand, NeSmith has not had a very good year with only one Top-40 finish in eleven starts and six missed cuts. All parts of his game look broken. Moore might have to carry this team, but they have had great success together the last two years with back to back 4th place finishes. They are second this week in value based on the Odds vs Pricing tool.

Wu/Lower – There was a lot of buzz on Lower in the fall of 2022, but things quickly fizzled out and 2023 was a struggle until a couple of encouraging finishes in the fall. Fast forward to 2024 and things have steadily improved. He made the cut in his first four starts without any great finishes, but then finished 3rd in Mexico. After a few choppy efforts, he seems to be moving in the right direction again his last three starts, improving each week with a 4th place finish last week. Wu has not been as impressive this season, but these two have played together the last two years and did finish 10th at this event in 2022.

Smalley/Schmid – Here is another team where I am onboard due to one player and the price. Schmid was not playing well to start the season, but has turned it around in recent months with five finishes of 26th or better in his last six starts. He ranks 10th in this field in SGTG over the last sixteen rounds and he finished 26th at this event last year. The only positive thing to say about Alex Smalley is that he finished 6th last week at Puntacana after missing seven straight cuts and nine of twelve this season.

Coody Bros – Both of these guys finished in the Top-20 last week at Puntacana and Parker has a couple of other Top-25 finishes this season. Parker ranks 29th in SGTG among the field over the last 24 rounds and Pierceson ranks 28th in SGP. These two rookies have plenty of talent between them and likely are very comfortable playing together. Brothers playing together does not guarantee success in this tournament, but at least it means that they will not be entirely checked out and they rate as the top value play on the Odds vs Pricing model this week.

 

GPP Player Pool

Core

Patrick Cantlay	Xander Schauffele	11200
Matthew Fitzpatrick	Alex Fitzpatrick	9700
Tom Hoge	Maverick McNealy	9400
Nick Taylor	Adam Hadwin	9200
Billy Horschel	Tyson Alexander	8900
Keith Mitchell	Joel Dahmen	8800
Davis Thompson	Andrew Novak	8100
Taylor Moore	Matt NeSmith	7700
Dylan Wu	Justin Lower	7400
Alex Smalley	Matthias Schmid	7200
Parker Coody	Pierceson Coody	6600

 

Secondary

Nicolai Hojgaard	Rasmus Hojgaard	9100
Beau Hossler	Sam Ryder	8600
Thomas Detry	Robert Macintyre	8500
Aaron Rai	David Lipsky	8400
Doug Ghim	Chan Kim	8300
Nico Echavarria	Max Greyserman	7200
Ryan Brehm	Mark Hubbard	7000
Peter Malnati	Russell Knox	6800
Charley Hoffman	Nick Watney	6200

 

Tertiary

Chandler Phillips	Jacob Bridgeman	7400
Kevin Streelman	Martin Laird	7300
Nate Lashley	Rafael Campos	7300
Vincent Norrman	Jorge Campillo	7300
Justin Suh	Rico Hoey	6900