The Daily Spin – ZOZO Championship

*Note – On Slack chat, be sure to join each of the channels. When you join, it starts you in the #general. Be sure to join #current-pga-event, #support, #feature-request, #euro-tour, #pga-championship, #nfl, #mma

Also, be sure to download the Slack App so you can be mobile and chat with us from anywhere!

Most of the talk takes place in the #current-pga-event room during the week so if you’ve only been in the general room and wondering where everyone is at, click on ‘Channels’ on the left side of the screen and that should bring up the list of available channels to join. Stat Boy has been on fire all year with his MMA picks so be sure to stop by each Saturday to check out his work. It’s just one more free perk that we offer to add value to your subscription throughout the year.

Also, our NFL website (Football Insider Edge) is up and running again for the 2020 season and all FGI subscribers are eligible for a discount!! Whether you are looking for DFS advice for GPP contests, cash games, showdown slates or even just make a few bets, we have it all over there and at a far better price than our competitors and you are going to get a fantastic product. All you need to do to take advantage of our offer is to send me an e-mail today at: zach@fantasygolfinsider.com

Also, if you guy enjoy the podcast each week, please help us out with a review. It would mean so much if you could take a few minutes to write us a positive review and share the show with others. In such a crowded industry, every little bit helps so a bunch of 5 star ratings and a few reviews would be great to see to end our week. Just take one second before you dig into the column for the week and once your review posts, e-mail me the name you left your review under, and I’ll give away some cool merchandise just for helping us out.

FGI Podcast link – https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-golf-insider/id1055153112

Click the Listen on Apple Podcasts button up top and then click on the reviews tab and ‘write a review’. Or just scroll to through the episodes on the app down to the bottom where there is a spot to click to write a review.

 

RECAP

I always talk about the key to winning in cash games at no cut events being the need to avoid the golfer in your lineup that immediately plunges to the bottom of the leaderboard right away. Whether it is one of your stars or scrubs, if you get a golfer that sinks to irrelevancy in the first round, it is unlikely that they will fight back and you will need a perfect performance from the rest of your team to make up for the lost points.

Matthew Wolff killed my cash lineup last week with a startlingly bad performance, just one week after a 2nd place finish at TPC Summerlin. It was surprising to see him struggle as he’s been really good at handling those types of courses over the last few months. He looked great at Winged Foot, Harding Park and even Olympia Fields. His game last week was bad in all facets. He seemed to get things together in the middle two rounds after shooting an 80 on Thursday, but finished with a 77 and a 73rd place finish for the week. A total disaster for a $10k golfer.

I still had a chance to get into the money over the weekend for my cash team. I also paid up for Xander and once again, he played great golf in a loaded field without a cut. He seems to be magic in these types of events for some reason. I thought going into the weekend that he was going to win the tournament. Unfortunately, he played poorly on Saturday and despite a fierce rally on Sunday, Jason Kokrak played the round of his life on his way to a huge win. Ten more points and I make the money on DK, but it just was not meant to happen.

The rest of my team hung in and fought reasonably well. Joaquin Niemann continued his recent run of solid golf with a 6th place finish. His tee to green game has always been his strength, but recently, he’s made enormous progress with his putter and the results have been much improved since a sluggish couple of months in the middle of the summer. I also owned Ryan Palmer who was a bargain at 6700 and finished 17th. One bad hole on Friday sort of ruined what could have been a really special week for him, but for the price, I was pleased by the result. Sungjae Im was a bit of a disappointment for my team. He started slow and shot a 78 the first day, but was -8 in his other three rounds so he was not far off for the week. The first round of these no cut events is so important. From a motivational perspective, it is tough to fight back when you fall out of contention immediately. Lastly, I owned MacKenzie Hughes who was ineffective, even if he was very cheap. His normally steady putter was as bad as I can remember and he missed out on a lot of scoring opportunities. It was disappointing since I wrote up Lanto and Henley for cash, but got a little greedy in wanting to do too much at the top of my lineup.

All in all, I am not beating myself up too much over last week. It always hurts to lose, but could I have seen a 73rd place finish coming from Matthew Wolff when he had been playing so well on tough course the last couple of months? Perhaps in cash games it might make more sense to gravitate towards the more experienced players, but even then, just the week prior, Hideki missed the cut for me so I am not sure there is a perfect solution for trying to envision a situation like that. I played the golfer who rated out best near that price point.

Course

• Sherwood Country Club
• Par 72
• 7,073 yards
• Bentgrass greens

The HERO used to be played here for a four year stretch so there are some players in the field this week with some experience on the course, though the last time they played here was in the fall of 2013. Plus, the field was only 17 players so do not be deceived by the results you are looking at for course history. Sherwood is a Jack Nicklaus design so you may want to take a peak at Muirfield for a comp course, though at just over 7,000 yards and with five Par 5 holes, this will play considerably easier than the Memorial did this past summer. Mid range iron play will be the order of the week. We want golfers that are strong from around 150 yards. The Par 5 holes are all on the shorter side, but scoring there will be the key to success. I would think the winning score gets into the -20’s again this week, but since the course has been out of the rotation for so long, it will be interesting to see how it is set up this time around and if there are any surprises lurking as golfer try to sharpen their play before heading off to Augusta.

Course Comps

• Shadow Creek
• Muirfield
• Sheshan
• TPC Summerlin
• Nine Bridges
• Harbour Town
• Glen Abbey

Field

We’ve got another great field to work with for the week and I suspect that this will be as good as it gets until we head to Augusta next month. Most of the big names that graced us with their presence a week ago are back, though DJ is still sidelined due to COVID. We do get back Tony Finau this week and I am anxious to hear from him as to how he is feeling, whether or not he dealt with symptoms when he tested positive and in general how he is feeling for the week. The one thing that I did notice this week is that the field is not as strong below $7k as it was last week. There were a number of strong performances from that range a week ago and most of those golfers at least received a small bump in salary.

I am looking at the field this week as an opportunity to build a lot of stars and scrubs type of lineups. Without a cut and a lot of talented golfers in the lower $7k range that I think you can include in your core, I will be looking to stack 2-3 stars in most of my lineups, though I think there are enough big names even in the $8k range that being balanced still gets you plenty of firepower. I do think this course opens itself up to more of the field being in play as far as guys who could contend. The course is on the shorter side so I do not think that the shorter hitters off the tee will have much trouble keeping up with the bombers even with the extra Par 5 to work with as none of those are over 575 yards which means that mid range iron play is more of a focus this week.

 

Local Connections

Brendan Steele – Born in Idyllwild, lives in Irvine, went to school at UC Riverside
Collin Morikawa – Born in LA, went to school at UC Berkeley
Lanto Griffin – Born in Mount Shasta
Matthew Wolff – Born in Agoura Hills
Patrick Cantlay – Born in Long Beach, went to school at UCLA
Phil Mickelson – Born in San Diego, lives in Rancho Santa Fe
Rickie Fowler – Born in Murrieta
Tiger Woods – Born in Cyprus, went to school at Stanford
Xander Schauffele – Born in La Jolla, lives in San Diego, went to San Diego State
Byeong Hun An – Went to school at UC Berkeley

 

Weather

Weather Forecast – https://www.windfinder.com/weatherforecast/westlake-yacht-club

Weather looks perfect this week with high temperatures in the high 60’s to mid 70’s over the first two days. Winds will not be a factor and are expected to be light. There are only 78 players in the field this week and there is no cut. The tee times are tight so even if there were weather issues to deal with, there are not waves to work with so there is no reason to consider stacking for the week.

Key Stats

Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
Strokes Gained Putting: 25%
Birdie or Better Percentage: 20%
Scrambling: 10%
Par 5 Scoring: 10%
Proximity: 10%

 

Cash Game Strategy

Upper Tier

Xander Schauffele – Xander is expensive this week. He’s ranked 7th in the world, but priced at the top. It is likely due to his ability to raise his level of play for the biggest and best events each season. He looked like he had the CJ Cup within his grasp last week, but a poor third round and untimely bogey late on Sunday dropped him back to 2nd place, after a 5th place finish at the US Open and 2nd place finish at the Tour Championship. He leads the field in SGTOT over the last 16 rounds and is also first in SGP. He led the tour last season in Par 5 Scoring and has local roots just down the coast in San Diego.

Justin Thomas – JT played well last week until the final round when he shot 74 and fell out of the Top-10. He’s another golfer that has had a lot of success at no cut events the last few years winning over in Asia, the BMW Championship, WGC Bridgestone and the Tournament of Champions. He ranked 3rd in Par 5 Scoring last season and 2nd in Birdie or Better Percentage. JT gets the edge over others near the top with iron play from mid range where he’s likely the best player in field.

Webb Simpson – Great course for Webb who has started the season with back to back Top-15 finishes and finished up a great 2020 season where he won twice and finished in the Top-25 ten times. It’s a shorter course, which works to Webb’s strengths as he does not have a lot of length off the tee, but is incredibly accurate and has some of the best iron play on tour. He’s played here three times in the past and finished 7^th and 5^th in his most recent two starts. He ranked 5^th in Par 5 Scoring and 1^st in Birdie or Better Percentage last season so he should be in position to contend again this week.

 

Middle Tier

Harris English – English has one of the best comeback stories of the 2020 season and about the only thing he was not able to do was get a year defining win. He missed just two cuts, finished in the Top-25 fourteen times and had 2^nd and 3^rd place finishes. He finally hit the ball straight last season as he struggled enormously with accuracy in recent years. His short game has always been strong. He started slow last week, but shot under 70 the final three rounds to finish 10^th at Shadow Creek.

Bubba Watson – Over the last 16 rounds among this field, Bubba ranks at the top of the SGTG category and enters the week coming off of a 7^th place finish at Shadow Creek, a course that compares somewhat well to the course this week. He finished last season strong with two Top-20 finishes in the playoffs and had one of his better US Open performances at Winged Foot. His approach game has been outstanding of late and his game off the tee will give him ample opportunities to score on the Par 5 holes this week.

Joaquin Niemann – Something clicked over the last couple of months for Niemann as he’s putting better than ever before in his career. Over the last 16 rounds among this field, Niemann ranks 7th, which is wildly good from what we have come to expect over the years. As a bonus, he’s also on bentgrass again this week where he is considerably better than on other surfaces. He’s had five straight finishes of 27th or better with two Top-10 finishes. If his putter remains strong and matches his tee to green game, Niemann is likely to have another strong season.

Matthew Fitzpatrick – Fitz will not have anything to complain about this week as it is a shorter track so those golfers that have been lifting weights to improve their distance will not be as intimidating. He’s playing well of late with a 12th place finish last week at Shadown Creek and a 7th over on the European Tour the prior week. He’s accurate off the tee and ranked 2nd on tour last season in SGP. If his iron play can stay as hot as it was last weekend, he should continue to be one of the top birdie makers as he was last week.

Russell Henley – Henley caught fire at the end of last season and has been great over the last 24 rounds, ranking 5^th in SGTG and 4^th in SGTOT. His iron play has been amazing the last couple of months and his short game is as good as it has ever been. Henley led by three strokes going into the final round before an amazing finish from Kokrak pushed him back to third, still a fantastic finish. He seems to be circling a win and we’re still getting a great number this week.

 

Lower Tier

Brian Harman – Harman likely won’t contend, but he’s also likely not to bottom out which makes him a decent play for the price. In his last seven starts, Harman has not finished below 38th. He’s been able to do it with an incredible putter, gaining nearly a stroke per round over the last 16 rounds. He’s had nine Top-25 finishes over his last 26 starts and avoids the meltdowns that can kill us in these events. It’s a shorter course which favors Harman and he’s played well throughout his career at comparable courses.

Sebastian Munoz – Munoz is heating up after a great run in the playoffs to end last season where he finished the year with two Top-10 finishes. This season, he’s off to another strong start with a 27^th, 23^rd and 9^th place finish. His tee to green game through these first 12 rounds has been fantastic and he ranks 7^th among this field in SGTG and 8^th in SGTOT. Coming off of a 9^th place finish last week, his price did not move all that much so we have another opportunity to take advantage of it.

Ryan Palmer – We paid down for Palmer last week and were rewarded with a 17th place finish. Had he been able to avoid a ridiculous triple bogey to end the day on Friday, he would have finished inside the Top-10. Palmer just finished off a strong season where he finished in the Top-25 in 11 of 19 starts. He had his best finish at Muirfield where he finished 2nd, a comp course for this week and was 10th in Par 5 Scoring all season.

Lanto Griffin – We nailed our pick with Lanto last week who was an absolute steal at 6300 and he rewarded us with a 7th place finish. I tip my hats to those who worked him into your cash games as recommended. Lanto has 15 Top-25 finishes since the start of last season and was a very strong performer on Par 5 holes, ranking 32nd on tour. With no cut to worry about, and iron play that has been particularly good of late, we get a ton of upside for the price once again with Lanto.

 

GPP

CORE – 25-40%

Xander Schauffele	11200
Justin Thomas	10600
Webb Simpson	9700
Viktor Hovland	9200
Harris English	8800
Bubba Watson	8700
Joaquin Niemann	8400
Russell Henley	8100
Abraham Ancer	7800
Brian Harman	7300
Sebastian Munoz	7200
Lanto Griffin	7000

 

Viktor Hovland – Hovland is off to a nice start this season with a 13th place finish at the US Open and 12th last week at Shadow Creek. Over the last 16 rounds, he ranks 10th in SGTG and it is even better over the last two weeks. His putter has been an issue for him, but being on bentgrass is a huge advantage where he’s .576 strokes per round better than on other surfaces.

Abraham Ancer – Ancer had a very strong 2020 season, but stumbled a bit down the stretch as he was not bad, but just not nearly as good from tee to green as he had been over the summer. It looks like things have turned around the last two weeks with a 4^th and 28^th place finish in Vegas. If that is the case, we might finally see him back in contention again after two 2^nd place finished last season.

 

SECONDARY – 15-25%

Patrick Reed	9600
Tony Finau	9500
Hideki Matsuyama	9300
Matthew Fitzpatrick	8300
Sungjae Im	8000
Adam Scott	7900
Rickie Fowler	7700
Cameron Smith	7200
Ryan Palmer	7100
Talor Gooch	7100

 

TERTIARY – 0-15%

Justin Rose	7400
Harry Higgs	6700
Kevin Streelman	6600
Joel Dahmen	6500
Mackenzie Hughes	6500
Tyler Duncan	6500
Tom Hoge	6400
Adam Long	6400