The Daily Spin – Waste Management Phoenix Open

RECAP

We are now through the course rotation events for about the next 9 months until the RSM Classic. I hope you enjoyed them and were able to make a few dollars in some Showdown contests. Those fields combined with changing conditions always make for a bit of a headache, but Pebble Beach proved to be profitable for me overall. I was able to sweep my cash games and had a chance for some bigger dollar prizes in GPP contests until one absolutely atrocious hole near the end of the third round by Matthew NeSmith.

Going into the 17th hole on Saturday, NeSmith stood at -7 with a smooth path to making the cut and playing the final round on Sunday. Somehow, against all odds on a short Par 4 hole, he managed to make a triple bogey where there was not even any water in play. In Florida, where wind and water are always an issue, this would be a surprise, but when neither of those are factors like last week, it is almost inconceivable. Unfortunately, I do not have shot tracker to break down every stroke and penalty along the way, but needless to say, this mistake cost me a good chunk of changes as my team hurtled down leaderboards and into the abyss on DK and FD. Though he was not the only player that hurt me last week, his miss certainly hurt the most as he went from having a good shot at a Top-20 finish to crashing and burning outside the cut.

Wyndham Clark also missed the cut right on the line. I did not need him to do that much on Saturday and he still could not find a way to get there. Clark and NeSmith were my two misses over on FanDuel for my big GPP team which could have had legs on Sunday had both of those guys just found one more stroke. Clark’s performance was head scratcher as he’s been masterful with his putter to start the season, but was terrible last week. He’s played well overall this season so I will still be looking to him for potential salary cap relief in weaker fields.

My other miss on DK was a young favorite of mine in Mito Pereira. I am not giving up on him after missing the cut at Pebble Beach, though his performance was concerning. Obviously, not having putted much on Poa greens was a bit concerning, but he had no major issues at Torrey Pines so I would not think too much of it. What was weird was how off his irons were last week. He’s normally pretty dialed in on his approach game, but was not close at all last week and especially on Saturday on Spyglass. It is a small hiccup for him and does give us the opportunity to go right back to him this week at a great price on a course that should suit his game well.

With a 3/6, I am normally dead on DK to get into the money for cash games, but with the three round cut in place, it is really finding the upside from a few players that gets you over the top. I ended up with Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Troy Merritt to round out my squad and I easily made it into the money without much of a sweat on Sunday. I felt like a simpleton building my roster with Spieth and Day up top, but I have been able to trust them at PB over the years regardless of incoming form so I did not want to overthink it or pay the extra dollars for Cantlay and then have to sacrifice one or the other.

As erratic as Spieth can be in his play, there are still some spots on tour where it is not too hard to anticipate a strong performance. Pebble is one of those spots where the shorter courses make it tougher for him to get into trouble and his short game play can carry him. Once again, he got into his own head too much on the final two holes and blew a great opportunity to notch another win, but still, a solid overall performance and a nice comeback after a slow start the first two rounds.

Day played well until Sunday and then could not sustain the momentum. After he played well at Torrey Pines and with his history at PB, I was not about to go against him. He was in line for another Top-10 finish, but shot +2 on Sunday to slip back in the standings. I am happy to take that performance and exit the Jason Day business for the time being. I will monitor him moving forward to see if he can keep the momentum intact or if this will be over after a couple of weeks.

Finally, Troy Merritt gave us a solid finish. It looked like he might have a shot to win the tournament as he stood on the 15th fairway on Sunday with the lead, but did not hit another good shot the rest of his round and put up a miserable double bogey on the 17th hole to end any hopes of a win. It was the type of course where Merritt can have success and he’s done it consistently over the last few years. With his strong form to start the season, it will be interesting to see if he can keep it going as his iron play has been really good compared to what we are used to seeing out of him during his career.

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