The Daily Spin – Valero Texas Open

Greetings fans and followers of the Daily Spin. I hope you all had a successful weekend with the Arnold Palmer Invitational. We were really pleased with the way that our picks played for the most part and we heard a lot of great things from subscribers who swept the board in their cash games and were able to cash in their tournaments. We enjoyed a profitable week with several cash game wins and two tournament cashes in the big GPP.

We were feeling really great about our picks late Friday afternoon. It was shaping up to be such a great day. Our blue chip players were playing well, our value picks looked strong, and our sleepers were rallying to make it through the cut and into the weekend. Then JB Holmes stepped up to the 18th tee, hit two good shots and set himself up for a lengthy birdie putt from 44 feet. He 3 putted and we got out a glass and poured some scotch. We still had hope, several remaining players sitting right on the cut line could still help our cause. Our hope proved futile and Holmes blew the cut and left a few gaping holes in a few tournament rosters. Even with Holmes missing the cut, it turned out to be a great week for our picks overall and we were pleased.

Our Blue Chip plays all made it through the cut (Bubba withdrew and we inserted Hideki Matsuyama in his place). We were all in on Henrik Stenson and that paid off enormously as the Swede played fantastic, falling just short on Sunday as Matt Every charged back to win the tournament with a brilliant birdie on the 18th hole to finish his rally and defend his title. We played him on 80% of our rosters and that move helped to secured much of our success. Jason Day and Matsuyama both played reasonably well, but not spectacularly, but each managed to be a contributor.

Our Value Plays finished with four of five players making the cut for the tournament with several quality performances. Outside of JB Holmes inexplicably missing the cut, our value plays did exactly what we anticipated. Brendan Steele played great the first three days and was in contention going into Sunday before struggling and finishing in 35th, but scoring considerable points with his effort. Shawn Stefani finished in 21st place for the weekend and played steady golf all four days slowly working his way up the leaderboard. Daniel Berger had a nice bounce back week for us and we capitalized on his lower price and ownership percentage riding his Albatross on Friday to a 13th place finish and a triple digit point effort. Kevin Streelman was our final value play and we selected him purely as a cut maker at his price. He started poorly, and finished poorly, but played fantastic on Friday and made it through the cut and contributed a few extra points over the last couple of days that helped us out down the stretch. He finished in 67th, but played four rounds so we were pleased with the effort.

The Sleepers went three for three in getting through the cut. Zac Blair had the most success with a great putting effort, finishing in 21st place. Vijay Singh continues to make cuts and played three good rounds out of four for us. Alex Prugh also made the cut, but did not do much the final two days. Our deep sleeper, Brandon Hagy was not successful in his inaugural effort at the tournament and missed the cut, although he did have some nice moments. We will watch Hagy closely as we do believe he will be a player to watch in the years ahead.

All in all, only two of our picks missed the cut and one was a deep sleeper. That is a very successful week and one that should give you even more confidence about what we do here. We are going above and beyond to make sure that not only do you have incredibly valuable research tools at hand to use, but also top notch commentary taken from hours of analysis and careful study of every player and every tournament. We also want to be a resource for you so if you have questions or concerns, please do feel free to reach out to us directly as we love to interact with our subscribers and followers. We are here to help grow the game that all of us love so do not hesitate with your inquiries.

The Valero Texas Open is up next and takes the tour on a two week stint through Texas before moving on to Augusta and The Masters, taking place between 9-12 April. Yes, Masters week is only two weeks out so we are in the midst of creating a special Masters page with tournament history available ahead of time along with additional preview articles in helping you to start building your lineups today. This page will be only available to subscribers as we intend to go pretty deep on our analysis, but we want the winner of the $1 million prize to come from among our group so let’s start working towards taking it down.

These last couple of tournaments before The Masters will largely be viewed as warm up events for the top pros and as last chance qualifiers for those players that are just short of being able to play at Augusta. The fields will be moderately strong, but not overwhelming which means that once again, we will look towards the value plays to fill out the vast majority of our lineups. Week in and week out, Draft Kings tends to overprice the favorites and overlook most of the mid and upper mid range players. We have taken advantage of this over and over this year to great success. Last week, we faded both Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott to great success. Rory did not play poorly over the weekend, but a T11 finish at a price that was much higher than the next highest priced player was not nearly good enough if your rostered him. Nobody won tournaments with Rory on their roster last weekend. Adam Scott continued his struggles with his putter, and finished T35, a second consecutive disappointing performance. Our other fades were a mixed bag. Billy Horschel finished T43, so we felt a bit vindicated with our fade, but he did not necessarily hurt you as he made the cut and did put up a few points although overall he was a non-factor. Gary Woodland had one of his better finishes on the year with a T21 finish so he was our long miss on the fades for last week. We are hopeful that Woodland regains his good form as his price should make him a good value over the next couple of months.

The TPC San Antonio is another lengthy track coming in at 7435 yards and a Par 72, but plays a little differently than some of the previous long courses. The par 5’s are longer than normal so eagles and birdies will be a little lower than the last couple of weeks on those holes. Players will need to lay up a bit more often as the narrow fairways and ugly vegetation throughout the course should have players taking a little more caution than normal. We’re going to focus on a few stats in particular this week. As always, on longer courses, strokes gained tee to green will be key. However, with the narrow fairways, total driving will be an good starting point for us. We also want players with strong Par 4 scoring ability and players who scramble well as getting off the beaten path can be a little treacherous. Also, we cannot emphasize enough the need to focus on birdie and eagle average. Birdies and eagles are such big point events in fantasy golf and we’re not seeing it emphasized enough yet in the analysis of t hese events. Finally, the tournament has only been played on this course since 2010 so our tournament sample size is a little smaller than normal.

HATE

Phil Mickelson – Why does he continue to be priced this high week in and week out? He is the 9th most expensive player this week and his best finish was 17th. Phil missed the cut here last year. He has been okay in strokes gained tee to green this year, ranking 51st, but his putting has been poor so far, and he is actually 115th and losing strokes each round on the green. He is 119th in scrambling so when he gets into trouble this weekend, do not expect him to get out easily. While we will not be playing Phil this week, we will watch him closely as we may have some exposure to Phil when The Masters rolls around if we see an uptick in his game these next two weeks.

Billy Horschel – Let’s stick to our trend and fade Billy again this week. He has one great finish (3rd in 2013) and three poor finishes here over the last 4 years (MC, 75, 74). At this price, his ownership numbers should be low, so he is an interesting contrarian play for GPPs, but with a low floor in comparison to his price, he should be avoided in cash games. What gives him upside is he ranks very well in total driving, ranking 3rd overall. However, he is terrible at scrambling (171st), awful in strokes gained tee to green (141st) and mediocre in par 4 scoring (60th). He could save himself to some extent if he were putting well, but he is 95th in strokes gained putting. We just do not understand how his price remains in this range week after week. If you throw out small field events, his best finish this season is 30th at The Phoenix Open. We just do not see enough upside to use Horschel and will avoid him this week again.

Matt Every – Winning last week drove up Every’s price this week and while he has made the cut all three times at this course, we think the increase in price will not translate into enough value to make him a useful play this week. Typically, you can find Every down in the sleeper range of pricing which can make him attractive for a stars and scrubs lineup, but he needs to give us a lot more than simply making the cut to make him worthwhile at this price. Last week was Every’s only Top 25 finish this season so we do not anticipate that he will duplicate last week’s effort this week. He is 204th in total driving, 190th in strokes gained tee to green, 156th in scrambling and 175th in Par 4 scoring. His putting has helped, but he will struggle this week to make value at his price.

LOVE

BLUE CHIPS

Jim Furyk – We hear about a lot of experts who avoid Furyk due to his lack of success on Sundays. However, the reality is that Furyk is a Top 10 machine who scores points consistently. Yes, it is disappointing when you need a couple of extra points on the final day and have to count on Furyk or Garcia, but these types of players are the ones that put your lineups in contention to begin with. Furyk will be highly owned this week, maybe higher than 30%, but he works great for cash games and even in GPPs where you can put him on your roster and not have to worry about him missing the cut. Furyk has three Top 15 finishes this season and has placed 3rd and 6th at TPC San Antonio. He is one of the most accurate players off the tee (8th this season) and currently ranks 3rd in GIR. He amazing iron play has him ranked 2nd in strokes gained tee to green and with even just a slight improvement in his putting, he could be dangerous this week.

Matt Kuchar – He has not played up to his usual standards over the last month or so and we hope that scares off owners this week although we are not terribly optimistic in that regard. Kuchar has been very consistent over the last few years and has a solid track record here placing 4th last year, 22nd in 2013 and 13th in 2012. He is typically a Top 15 player from tee to green and remains in the Top 25 in strokes gained putting. With putting stats like these, Kuchar is able to convert a fair number of birdies. Kuchar has not had great accuracy off the tee this season, but currently ranks 4th in scrambling so he knows how to get out of trouble when needed. He also ranks 4th in Par 4 scoring which is a metric that has been tied closely to success in this tournament. He is a popular player among fantasy owners so we would anticipate roughly 20% ownership this week.

Ryan Palmer – Our last blue chip recommendation this week is Ryan Palmer. Outside of a missed cut at Pebble Beach, Palmer is off to a good start this season with six Top 25 finishes in seven events played. Palmer has had mixed results here over the last five years at Valero with two Top 15 finishes, a 32nd place finish, a 56th place finish and a missed cut. He is ranked 7th in driving distance, 31st in GIR and 9th in strokes gained tee to green. He puts himself into position to score and has capitalized this year, currently ranking 12th in birdie average. He is another player that is not always accurate, but does scramble well and ranks 19th. He is also 4th in Par 4 scoring so his numbers line up well for him to be a strong contender this weekend. He will have near 20% ownership this week.

Honorable Mention – Jimmy Walker and Zach Johnson both rank well this week. Johnson played well here last year and is coming off of a very strong performance on Sunday. Walker started out the season red hot, but has cooled over the last month. He has mixed results over the last 5 years here, but could be a great GPP play as he has a very high ceiling.

VALUE PLAYS

Brendon Todd – Todd is quietly having a very good season. He has four consecutive Top 25 finishes and has missed just one cut in nine starts. Todd finished 6th here last season and should be able to take advantage of his accuracy off the tee which has helped him to a 31st ranking in strokes gained tee to green and 23rd in total strokes gained. When he does get off the fairways, he ranks 13th in scrambling so we do not think the narrow fairways will bother Todd. Look for Todd to continue his strong push this season. He will be owned by 10-15% of the field.

Brendan Steele – We went to him last week and he gave us a nice effort. Unfortunately, his price jumped a bit this week, but we still like Steele this week. He has yet to miss a cut and has 5 finishes in the Top 30 this season. He has backtracked a bit here recently in missing the cut last year, but he won here in 2011 and finished 4th in 2012. He is 30th in Total Driving and 23rd in Ball Striking so he is almost always in good position on the course. He is 24th in birdie average and 8th in Par 4 scoring. This makes sense since he is 15th in strokes gained tee to green this season. He is nearly out of the value range so enjoy it while it lasts as Steele should be very competitive this week. He will be owned by 15% of the field this week.

Daniel Berger – Berger enjoyed a nice weekend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, highlighted by scoring an Albatross on the 16th hole on Friday afternoon. Berger has flashed huge upside potential this year with 5 Top 15 finishes including a 2nd place finish at The Honda Classic. He does have a few missed cuts, but as a tour rookie, he is making a strong impression. He ranks 15th in Total Driving and 12th in Ball Striking. He scores a lot of bonus points as he is ranked 13th in birdie average and 27th in strokes gained tee to green. Berger saw his price leap this week, but scores enough points to make him a strong value play this week.

Russell Knox – Another player we have recommended this year, Russell Knox is another player with a high potential ceiling each week. He is 9 of 12 in making the cut this year with two Top 10 finishes. He is not dominant in any of the major statistical categories, but not low in any areas either. He ranks 54th in strokes gained tee to green and 35th overall in total strokes gained. He is 28th in birdie average and 6th in Par 4 scoring. Knox is well priced for the number of points he puts up each week and makes for a great value play most weeks. Look for 10-15% ownership this week.

Shawn Stefani – With six Top 25 finishes in 12 starts this year, we are a little surprised that Stefani’s price has not risen faster. We think much of his price is based on a lack of experience at TPC San Antonio where he missed the cut in his lone appearance in 2013. Stefani currently ranks 44th in total strokes gained, is 11th in birdie average and ranks 16th in Total Driving. He is a respectable 30th in Par 4 scoring and has missed just two cuts this year in 12 starts. He should see about 15% ownership this week and be a bargain for the price.

Will MacKenzie – MacKenzie has had a quiet season so far on Tour in playing just 6 events so far. He has made the most of his opportunities though with three Top 10 finishes. He nearly won here last year before settling for a 2nd place finish. He ranks 28th in accuracy, 14th in GIR and 12th in strokes gained tee to green. He has not been a great putter this year, but it has not hurt his scoring average. He is also ranked 13th in Par 4 scoring. We expect 10% ownership levels for MacKenzie this week.

Fredrik Jacobson – We expect that Freddie will be one of the highest owned players this weekend. Freddie’s price, combined with his dynamite tournament history will lead close to 30% of players to roster him. He has been in the Top 20 for the last five years and in the Top 10 twice. His form is just average over the last few months with just one quality finish this year (7th place in Phoenix). He has missed a couple of cuts and does not shoot a lot of birdies so he does not always score a lot of points even when he makes the cut. That said, we do expect him to make the cut and so at this price, he is worth a mention.

SLEEPERS

John Peterson – Our favorite redneck is finally seeing a little bit of price appreciation this week, but not so much to take him out of the Sleeper category. Peterson has become one of the best cut making machines on tour this season, missing only one time in twelve starts. Just as George Steinbrenner nicknamed Dave Winfield, Mr. May for piling up stats early in the baseball season, we have given Peterson the nickname, Mr. First Day for his extraordinary ability to start events strong…before slipping the rest of the weekend. Peterson ranks 6th in Round 1 scoring, 97th in Round 2 scoring, 111th in Round 3 scoring and 106th in Round 4 scoring. We have no idea why this is happening but we are thankful that it helps him get through the cut on the front end. Peterson ranks 39th in strokes gained tee to green and 24th in total driving. Unfortunately, he would be better off kicking the ball into the hole when on the green as his putting is terrible. He scrambles well and scores well on Par 4’s so if he can ever put it together with the flat stick, he could be a player to be reckoned with. His ownership level should hit about 8% this week.

Pat Perez – We typically will be avoiding Pat Perez after the west coast swing of the tour ends each year, but Pat has saved a few quality performances for the Valero over the years with an 11th place finish last year, a 5th place finish in 2011 and a 22nd place finish in 2010. Perez hits none of the stat categories well that we looked at this week….zero. He is reasonably accurate driving the ball and that is where it ends. For whatever reason, he plays this course well and is priced right as a cut maker with some potential upside. Perez is a nice GPP option this week. Given his tournament history, we think he will see about 10% ownership levels this week.

James Hahn – Hahn won a playoff at The Northern Trust Open and then took some time off after his wife had their first child. We think that this is probably the biggest reason for his price to still be in the sleeper range for the week. Hahn has made the cut in eight of his last nine starts which includes a win and four other Top 30 finishes. Hahn ranks 35th in strokes gained tee to green although outside of the NTO, he has not putted well. He is a reasonable scrambler and plays the Par 4’s well. In two starts here he missed the cut in 2013 and finished 16th last year so he is another sleeper with some extra potential. He is a strong sleeper play this week. We think that his recent absence will keep owners away so that he will be in the 8% range this week.

Given the strength of the field, we did not feel the need to use any deep sleepers this week. A balanced approach is most appropriate given the players in the field. Jordan Spieth is an interesting option, but we’ve made money all season by avoiding the highest priced players each week so we do not anticipate deviating from that strategy unless someone goes on a run like Rory where they start to finish in the top 2 or 3 week in and week out.

Good luck this week and as always, keep those comments coming each week letting us know how you did over the weekend.

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