The Daily Spin – Travelers Championship

The Daily Spin – Travelers Championship

RECAP

We finally had some drama at a major championship this past weekend at Pinehurst. It looked as if Rory might finally break his stretch of ten years without winning a major championship, but managed to miss two putts inside of four feet on his way to bogeying three of the final four holes. Meanwhile, Bryson DeChambeau managed to work his way out of a very difficult situation after an errant tee shot left him in the native area where he then had to punch out to get into a bunker 55 yards from the hole. He then delivered the shot of a lifetime out of the bunker, nestling his third shot up to about four feet from the cup and then drained the winning putt to set off an incredible celebration that lasted long into the night as Bryson enjoyed the moment with fans and took it all in after winning his second US Open in what has been an amazing couple of years for him since leaving the PGA for the LIV Tour. While most players that left have endured their share of struggles, Bryson has truly blossomed into an elite player and seems more comfortable than ever before with the expectations around him as well as a fanbase that seems much warmer towards him than when he was feuding with Brooks Koepka just a few years ago.

It was also a winning week for me in DFS which always makes watching the final round on Sunday that much more fun. The only real worry was on Friday afternoon as many of us had what was about the most unlikely cut sweat imaginable as Scottie Scheffler shot a birdie free 74 and slipped back to +5 after the second round. While +5 was a favorite to make the cut for most of the day, just the fact that we were even a little nervous about Scottie was astounding. Once he fell back, I thought he would likely make a charge over the weekend the way we have seen him do so often, but that never happened either. In fact, on Sunday, he went birdie free again! Over the entire tournament, Scottie managed just four birdie enroute to a 41st place finish. It was painful, but in cash games he was 60-70% owned so it did not hurt me that much. Now, if you went ahead and played hero ball and faded him last week…bravo! It has been hard to get contrarian against him this season in GPP contests with his incredibly consistent results near the top, but if you pulled it off, well played. There is a payoff to fading the chalk, but you have to be consistent in doing it or you will drive yourself mad from one week to the next.

The rest of my lineup was also chalk city. It seemed like the easiest lineup to land on all season and I did not change it after Tuesday once I had my favorite plays all figured out. Scottie was obvious for cash games, but then I needed so deeper value plays to round it out. There were some obvious discrepancies between odds and prices last week so I took advantage of that with a trio of golfers below $7k in Russell Henley, Sepp Straka and CBez. Henley constantly gets dropped down into the cheap range at majors so he is always a nice high floor cash game play, especially with how well he has been playing this season. He did not disappoint and finished -1 for the week in a tie for 7th place. CBez gave me about what I expected with a 32nd place finish. It was not flashy, but his salary was only $6200 so making the cut was my only real goal for him as I did not think he could replicate his performance from the previous week at the Memorial. Finally, there was Sepp Straka who delivered the ultimate gift for us on Friday with a hole in one on the 9th hole. Picking up all of those extra bonus points between an eagle and a five point bonus on top of that was so massive, especially at the US Open where DK points come at a premium. He had a rough weekend as he shot a 78 on Saturday, but by making the cut and the hole in one, he had more than exceeded his value for the weekend.

In the middle range, Hideki was my favorite value play option of the week at $8k. Any chance we get to lock him in at $8k and we are going to take it every single time. He is so good and so consistent with the majors on US Soil. He has only missed the cut once at Augusta, once at the US Open and never at the PGA Championship. He is built for long, rugged, tough courses and he is unflappable when it comes to his focus, never letting bad situations snowball out of control the way other temperamental golfers fold. He continued his very solid run of golf this year with a 6th place finish.

With all of the value I was able to unlock in the $6k range, I was able to afford Collin Morikawa at $9400, another salary that I felt like was a little too low for how well he has played in recent months. He did not get off to the best start on Thursday, but was locked in on Friday with a 66 and battled all weekend to a 14th place finish. I marked his 8th straight Top-20 with only one of those finishes being worse than 16th. His short game has been much improved which makes him a threat to win, especially at tougher courses where his long iron play gives him an edge over the rest of the field.

Course

• TPC River Highlands
• Par 70
• 6,835 yards
• Bentgrass/Poa Blend
• Pete Dye Design (see also Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, Stadium Course, Kiawah Island, TPC Louisiana)

TPC River Highlands is an interesting course. Last week , it was not too surprising that strong players off the tee dominated the tournament. At Pinehurst, the length of the course forces everyone to play driver for the most part. There are always a couple of players that are not long off the tee that find a way to compete, but year after year, unless there is a major issue with the weather, the bombers are in charge at the US Open. That is not necessarily the case this week as there are two distinct paths to victory for this tournament. In recent years, we’ve seen the bomb and gouge approach work well for players like Xander, Bubba Watson, DJ and Marc Leishman who all have wins here. However, we’ve also had winner like Chez Reavie, Russell Knox and Kevin Streelman, players that are very accurate off the tee and who are proximity wizards from mid range in their approach play. Last year, it was Keegan Bradley who triumphed with his excellent total driving play followed up with his killer precision approach play. When you have a course that plays at just over 6,800 yards, it opens things up for everyone in the field as there are only two Par 4 holes that are over 450 yards. Sure, the bombers may have an advantage, but there is a big difference on a course like Pinehurst where those extra 30-50 yards might mean an approach shot from outside of 200 yards as opposed to 150 this week. The greens are smaller than normal this week and considered fast. They are bentgrass, but overseeded with poa.

Course Comps

• Pebble Beach
• Harbour Town
• TPC Louisiana
• Sea Island
• Stadium Course
• TPC Sawgrass
• Sedgefield

Field

We have another Signature event this week so our hangover after the US Open is mitigated to a large degree. This marks the third major in a row where we have enjoyed a solid field the following week. If only we could find a way to make that happen after The Open Championship….

Here is a quick breakdown of the field based on OWGR:

• Top-10 – 7
• Top-25 – 21
• Top-50 – 43

Rory is moping at home this week and elected to withdraw from the event so he could take a solid month thinking about that three footer on 18 that cost him a shot at breaking his major tournament drought. Beyond that there are only a few omissions since it is an elevated event. There is NO CUT this week. Keep in mind that only Genesis, API and Memorial have a cut for the elevated events which means that your builds can get a little more creative than normal without fear of players missing the weekend. Also of note, the PGA is extending Tiger a lifetime exemption to these Signature events beginning in 2025. I actually made sure to look at multiple sources just to be certain it was not a joke.

Weather

• Weather Forecast – https://www.windfinder.com/weatherforecast/hartford-brainard_airport

Nothing doing for the weather this week that is worthy of our attention so far. Winds are expected to be 10-12 mph on Thursday and light throughout most of Friday. There may be some slight precipitation in the forecast on Friday, but not enough to make much of a difference. The tee times are a little weird this week. They are playing in groups of two right from the jump and rather than the tee times flipping so that the earliest golfers on Thursday would be last on Friday, it is set up more like The Masters where the earliest tee time on Thursday starts right in the middle on Friday.

Local Connections

• Keegan Bradley

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
• Strokes Gained Putting: 25%
• Birdie or Better Percentage: 15%
• Scrambling: 10%
• Par 4 Scoring: 10%
• Proximity: 10%
• Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 5%

 

Cash Game Plays

Top Tier

Scottie Scheffler – It is disappointing that Rory WD this week as we might have seen Scottie fall below 20% ownership, but with his departure from the field, Scottie likely balloons back up closer to 25%. Pinehurst was a rough course for Scottie, but that is not going to happen to him all that often. I think we will likely see him bounce back this week. He is #1 on my comp course model by a wide margin and with wins at TPC Sawgrass and Harbour Town, it is not hard to see why. It will be very interesting to see how much recency bias creeps into Scottie’s ownership numbers for the week.

Xander Schauffele – We barely saw Xander during the TV coverage over the weekend, but by the end of the day on Sunday, he had worked his way up the leaderboard for a 7th place finish for his fourth Top-10 in a row. Xander is right behind Scottie in my comp course model and picked up a win here two years ago. He is strong from tee to green and his putter is always a strength as well. He tends to come up big in the smaller field, no cut events so there was never a chance I was leaving him out of my core this week.

Patrick Cantlay – Was last week a return to the normal Cantlay that has been so good over the years or will he have an adrenaline dump this week and go back to sleep the way he has been for much of 2024? He plays this tournament every and has not finished worse than 16th in his last since starts here. Him and Xander are about tied in my comp course model this week and he has not been terrible at the comp courses this season with an 11th place finish at Pebble Beach and a 3rd place finish at Harbour Town, two courses with smaller greens than average on tour.

Hideki Matsuyama – There is no reason to get away from Hideki now. I was a little worried that perhaps his neck/back issue was flaring up given the amount of time off around the PGA Championship and Augusta, but with back to back Top-10 finishes at the Memorial and US Open, those fears were put to rest. His tee to green game, especially his iron play is excellent, he ranks first among this field in SGARG and his putting has been about average. When you put that all together, you have Hideki at the top of his game. He finished 13th here last season in his lone career start and he ranks 7th in my comp course model having gained over 1.2 strokes per round in 23 career starts.

 

Middle Tier

Keegan Bradley – The defending champion returns to defend his title and as usual, he will have the backing of the New England crowd as he grew up in the northeast. I will take any narrative I can get this week after the US Open, but that one means a little more since this is not Florida where half the players on tour live for most of the year. He has not been quite as good as last season when he won two events, but he does have two second place finishes this season and his game seems to have turned the corner since a rough stretch during the Florida tournaments. He ranks 13th among the field in SGTOT over the last sixteen rounds and I am encouraged in that his putting has been a strength rather than a weakness during recent events. If his irons get back to where we know they can be, Keegan can make it interesting for the rest of the summer.

Russell Henley – This type of course just screams Russell Henley. It is on the short side so it sets up great for someone as accurate as Henley off the tee, who is locked in with his irons inside of 150 yards. He’s played well here with four Top-20 finishes in six starts and he ranks 10th in my comp course model. Round that out with his dependable short game play and you have a golfer that should be in contention this week.

Brian Harman – Harman stands out as our Course History Play of the Week. Outside of 2020 when the schedule went haywire due to COVID, Harman has been a machine at TPC River Highlands with five Top-10 finishes in his last six start and six in his last nine going back to 2015. He has not reached the heights of his play from last year when he won The Open, but he’s been the golfer we have come to expect. He’s accurate off the tee, decent iron play and strong short game. Not surprisingly, he is just ahead of Russell Henley in my comp course model for the week.

Tom Kim – This will mark the 8th week in a row that Kim has teed it up and the 11th time in the last twelve weeks. Is he getting tired? He is 21 years-old so that is unlikely. More likely is that he is playing his way through some early season struggles. He’s been respectable since Augusta where he finished 30th and then followed that up with an 18th place finish at Harbour Town. He has not missed a cut since Valero and has four Top-26 finishes in his last five starts. He ranks 9th among the field in SGTG and 14th in SGTOT over the last sixteen rounds. He has been well positioned to make a run the last two weeks before getting chewed up in a couple of rounds, but he does seem to be returning to his normal form.

 

Lower Tier

Sungjae Im – Sungjae took a small step back last week, but I am more focused on the four Top-12 finishes in his previous five starts. He ranks fourth on my comp course model this week behind only Scottie, Xander and Cantlay. His rolling numbers look great over the last sixteen rounds and his short game seems to be returning to form. The majors have killed him this spring, but on a shorter course where his game right now is a better fit, I think we see a similar result to what we’ve seen the last couple of months in other PGA events.

CBez – He is about as steady as it gets and though he did not crush it last week, he’s given us plenty of upside even on some courses where we might not expect it. As for comp courses, he’s gained just under a stroke per round in 18 career starts. On comp courses this season, CBez finished 2nd at the AMEX, 20th at Pebble Beach, 13th at TPC Sawgrass and 28th at Harbour Town. He’s an excellent iron player from close range and ranks 2nd on tour between 50-125 yards. He is one of the best short game players on tour and on a course that only plays around 6800 yards, this is one of those rare stops where he actually has the tools to win.

Taylor Pendrith – Taylor runs hot and cold. He finished 2023 with a run of six Top-15 finishes over the last few months and then had a couple of Top-10s to start 2024, before struggling over the next few months. Since mid April, he has found his stroke again with six Top-25 finishes in his last eight starts including a win in Dallas at the CJ Cup/Byron Nelson. He has done it on the strength of his putter where he ranks 5th in SGP for the entire season. This should be another stop where that comes in handy for him and should give the parts of his game a break that have been hurting him.

Mackenzie Hughes – Hughes plays in this event each year and has three Top-25 finishes in seven starts. He WD last year, but that was the only time he missed out on playing the weekend over the years. His game has been a little rough of late with missed cuts at the Memorial, US Open and PGA Championship, but mixed in around those were a couple of Top-10 finishes up in Canada and at Quail Hollow. He is another short game wizard that excels around and on the greens. I was a little nervous about him coming into the week, but with no cut, his skillset is just good enough, along with his price, to make him a viable option this week.

 

GPP Player Pool

Core

Scottie Scheffler	12500
Xander Schauffele	11200
Ludvig Aberg	10200
Patrick Cantlay	9600
Hideki Matsuyama	9200
Keegan Bradley	8700
Russell Henley	8600
Brian Harman	8300
Sungjae Im	7900
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	7400
Taylor Pendrith	7200

 

Secondary

Corey Conners	8400
Tom Kim	8100
Adam Scott	7700
Denny McCarthy	7500
Si Woo Kim	7500
Billy Horschel	7300
Akshay Bhatia	7200
Chris Kirk	6900
Mackenzie Hughes	6900
Ben Griffin	6800
Austin Eckroat	6800

 

Tertiary

Thomas Detry	7100
Robert Macintyre	7000
Matthieu Pavon	6800
Seamus Power	6500
Lee Hodges	6400
Brendon Todd	6000