The Daily Spin – The American Express

The Daily Spin – The American Express

RECAP

My results last week at the Sony Open came down to one putt on Friday afternoon from Joel Dahman from just inside of five feet. If he made the birdie putt, I would have 4/6 through the cut and would be sweating out the rest of the weekend and likely not making it into the money. If he missed the cut, I would cruise into the money and would have some GPP upside potential if things fell the right way. I was fairly certain he was going to knock it in. The hole played out so well for the onloooker in Slack no matter which side you were supporting. The tee shot into the bunker gave me hope for a par. The layup was just okay and gave both sides a chance. The pitch onto the green was beautiful giving the -3 crowd as reason to get excited. While I was emotionally ready to concede the putt, I knew that it was Joel Dahman standing over it so I could not quite close the app. When I saw the F next to his name and the T65 still in place, I let out a big sigh of relief as I was spared for the week. It was an exciting sweat early in the season and I was lucky to be on the right side of things. Remind me of this moment in July when I am swearing up a storm about how I never get the cut to go my way.

As for the roster I built, I was really happy with the overall construction of it. You never want to get too fancy at Waiale. You just do not need to get carried away with the high dollar players there. When you look over the leaderboards, it is usually a mix of names and last week was no exception. Where you need to be right is with your value golfers and fortunately, a few of them worked out really well for me.

I built a modified stars/scrubs roster last week. While I did not pay all the way up to the top, I did really like a couple of names in the $9k range in Russell Henley and Eric Cole. I liked that both guys had played the previous week. It’s always good to get four rounds under your belt to start the year. With some golfers, you just do not know what is going to happen after 8-10 weeks off from competitive golf. With both Henley and Cole, they played in the fall and at The Sentry so I felt good about their focus coming into the week. Waialae is also a perfect course for the type of golf that they play. Neither one of these guys is a beast off the tee, but both are excellent iron players that play really well on Bermuda greens. Cole nearly betrayed me on Friday when he shot a 72, but was saved by Dahman and made the most of it over the weekend, rallying to finish 13th. Henly was in position to win on Sunday, but choked it away late over the last couple of holes and failed to even make the playoff. Still, a 4th place finish was helpful for my team overall.

The rest of my roster fell squarely in the value range with four golfers priced between $7400-8100. I am going to keep playing Stephan Jaeger in cash until the wheels fall off. At some point, he is going to miss a cut, but until he does, we are just getting too good of a deal not to use him. While there are elite golfers that have a slightly better cut making percentage than Jaeger, nobody else is even close in his salary tier. He finished 18th last week so gave us even more upside than usual. The crazy part of all of this is that he is still overlooked by the rest of the DFS community. In one of the $100 double ups I played in, he came in at 7.2% owned for the week. You have to wonder if he can keep this going, but the run stretches back to the start of last season so after 34 starts, we might have to adjust our expectations for his play going forward.

Adam Svensson was a much more popular play at $7700 and owned by upwards of 50% in most cash games last week. He was also saved by Dahman’s missed putt on Friday and also went on to put up big fantasy numbers on the weekend, punctuated by back to back eagles on Sunday. He threw away his Top-20 finish with an absurd double bogey on the very easy 18th hole to end his round, but still put up a very nice number of DK points after a tough first couple of rounds.

My last two golfers were Andrew Putnam and Ben Griffin. I was surprised at how chalky Putnam was in coming in at over 50% owned and also how lightly Griffin was owned coming in at around 5%. I knew Putnam would at least be mildly popular given his experience there, but Griffin played well in the fall so I did not think he would be some sort of pivot play. Putnam played really well in three of four rounds and only stumbled on Saturday when he shot a 70 where his irons were out of whack and his putter could not bail him out as usual. You can target Putnam on these shorter, pitch and putt type of courses where he has had success over the years. I got a little lucky with Griffin. He was not that good for rounds 1, 3 and 4, losing strokes in each one. However, in the second round, he played out of his mind and shot a 62 where everything was working for him. I do not really care how I get to a positive result, but I will keep an eye on him in the weeks ahead to see if he can stay on track after playing well in the fall.

Course

Stadium Course (Dye) – Toughest of the three courses, though still easy in comparison to most courses on tour

• Par 72
• 7,147 Yards
• Bermuda w poa

PGA West (Nicklaus) – Slightly tougher than La Quinta, but has had years where the differential is very small

• Par 72
• 7,181 yards
• Bermuda w poa

La Quinta – This course is consistently one of the easiest on tour

• Par 72
• 7,060 yards
• Bermuda w ryegrass and poa

For golfers to target this week, I try not to get real tricky in my analysis. All three courses are on the short side and have many short Par 5 holes that are well within the range of most players to get to the green in two if they are well positioned off the tee. The Stadium Course is a Pete Dye design so it can be compared to some of his other courses like TPC Sawgrass or Harbour Town in that players will not usually be able to simply hammer the ball off the tee. They will club down often to hit a particular area of the fairway as Dye seemed to enjoy setting up holes in a way that forces golfers to play a game of pool in their minds as they approach the hole thinking of where to leave the ball rather than just trying to hit it long so that they will have the ability to make a great approach shot. Being that distance is not much of a factor this week, we do not need to downgrade the shorter hitters this week and can instead focus on iron play, a solid short game and an ability to convert birdie putts. Given the lack of winds, the scoring could go very low. The greens are all Bermuda this week, but they are overseeded with poa which gives them a grainier texture, though they tend to play slow and putting is not normally a big problem.

The event is a three round ProAm so it marks one of Jeff’s favorite events of the year as he just cannot get enough of the rich CEOs and D List celebs that get trotted out for some television time during the tiny window that the Golf Channel covers the tournament each round. It tends to make for slower play and can serve as a small distraction for the short tempered players on tour. While I think most players are smart enough to realize that these are the sorts of things that help the tour to bring in the massive dollars that seem to pile up higher by the year, I am sure that it does get under the skin of some as well. At the end of the third round, the cut mercifully kicks in and the final round will be played on the Stadium Course for all remaining players.

Showdown events on DraftKings are an interesting option over the next three weeks. With The AMEX, Farmers and Pebble Beach we get three events in a row with multiple courses which means that the scoring for each round will vary quite a bit depending on the course for each player. When you factor in weather as well there are unique opportunities that can still be exploited. After almost six years of Showdown contests for PGA, I am quite certain that most PGA DFS players are well aware of this edge, but there are still a handful of folks that will make mistakes when building their rosters so that there is some opportunity to make some money. For the AMEX, I think the biggest edge that might still be available is in realizing that the Nicklaus courses is not that much tougher than La Quinta. Some years, the scoring difference has been almost negligible. I think an interesting GPP approach is to roster the top players on the Nicklaus course while others crowd in on La Quinta. While the overall scoring at La Quinta might be a little better overall, if you have elite players on Nicklaus that are slightly underowned, they may equal or even exceed the scores at La Quinta. You do not even need to build your entire roster weighted to the Nicklaus course, but just sprinkling in a couple of the top players each day might give you a little ownership leverage in those contests. You could even get crazy and play an elite name on the Stadium Course and you’d likely gain huge leverage on the rest of the field

Course Comps – Based on Stadium Course this week where three rounds will take place

• Waialae
• Scottsdale
• TPC Summerlin
• Pebble Beach
• Harbour Town
• TPC Sawgrass
• TPC Louisiana
• Sedgefield

Field

For the second year in a row, the field here is much stronger than normal. In years past, this was usually a break in the schedule, but it is nice to see that we get a lot of elite players joining the tournament this week. This is not even an ‘elevated’ event on the new schedule so perhaps this will be a new trend for some of these normally weaker field tournaments. Four of the Top-10 players in the world are in the field and nine of the Top-25 and twenty-one of the Top-50. It is well balanced through the middle of the field so that once again, there are a lot of intriguing options in the $7k and $8k range to build around. The pricing structure for DraftKings continues to be on the softer side which means that roster construction looks more like FanDuel than what we are used to from DK. There are going to be a lot more top heavy builds in all styles of contests which will create a lot more mega chalk teams. The three round cut also allows you to be more aggressive as a missed cut only loses you a single round. In years past, you truly paid a high price to roster the highest priced player in the field, but now those players do not even approach $12k in salary which means that owners have a lot more salary cap flexibility.

Weather

• Palm Springs – Wind, waves & weather Superforecast Palm Springs International Airport – Windfinder

Winds are nearly nonexistent this week. Temperatures will be cool through most of the weekend reaching the low to mid 60s each day. No precipitation is in the forecast so I at this point, I am not seeing any sort of edge in starting at one particular course over another. You could build some lineups that start entirely at each course, though there is nothing that would indicate that there would be any sort of advantage in doing so.

Local Connections

• Patrick Cantlay
• Akshay Bhatia
• Rickie Fowler
• Si Woo Kim
• David Lipsky
• Eric Cole
• Justin Suh
• Xander Schauffele

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 20%
• Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
• Birdie or Better Percentage: 25%
• Scrambling: 10%
• Par 5 Scoring: 10%
• Proximity: 10%
• Prox 150-175: 5%

 

Cash Game Plays

Scottie Scheffler	11400
Xander Schauffele	10900
Patrick Cantlay	10800
Sungjae Im	10100
JT Poston	9100
Chris Kirk	9000
Eric Cole	8800
Adam Hadwin	8300
Akshay Bhatia	8200
Taylor Montgomery	8100
Andrew Putnam	8000
Stephan Jaeger	7900
Alexander Noren	7800
Billy Horschel	7700
Thomas Detry	7600
Erik van Rooyen	7500
Ben Griffin	7400
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	7300
Sam Ryder	7200
Patton Kizzire	7000

 

Top Tier

Scottie Scheffler – I am going to leave a space here for Scottie every week. He’s so good from tee to green beyond everyone else on tour that he will contend nearly every time he enters a tournament. He never missed a cut last season and finished in the Top-10 in 17/23 starts. My only reservation for this event is that Scottie still has not gotten his putting under control. At the Sentry, you could get away with having him on your roster since a very low owned Chris Kirk won the tournament. This week, it might be more challenging with so many other stars here who perform well consistently.

Xander Schauffele – Xander looked solid in his first start of the year with a 10th place finish at Kapalua two weeks ago. The So Cal native finished 3rd here a year ago and is coming off of a season where he did not miss a cut in 23 starts with eighteen Top-25 finishes and eleven Top-10s. About the only thing he did not do last year was win. He ranks 6th on my comp course model this week, gaining nearly 1.4 strokes per round in 27 career starts. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 4th in SGTG and 3rd in SGTOT and does not have any weak areas in his game that stand out.

Patrick Cantlay – Cantlay is another So Cal native that regularly plays this tournament. He finished in the Top-10 here in his first three starts, but slipped to 26th last year. He is at the top of my comp course model this week and has gained just under 2 strokes per round in 39 career starts. His tee to green numbers have been fantastic in recent starts and he closed last season very strong in his playoff run. He finished 12th at Kapalua, though his putting his been off going all the way back to last summer, though not quite as bad as Scottie.

Sungjae Im – Sungjae has played here for the last five years and never finished lower than 18th place, though never higher than 10th. Not surprisingly, he ranks 2nd on my comp course model, having gained over 1.6 strokes per round in 37 career starts. With a quick glance at other comps last season, he finished 14th at Sedgefield, 6th at Zurich, 7th at the RBC Heritage, 6th at the Players and 7th at the Shriners and 6th at the WMPO. The rolling numbers look great (14th in SGTG and 11th in SGTOT over the last 24 rounds). He’s also a solid putter across the board. He knocked off the rust in Maui finishing 5th at the Sentry so should be ready to go this week.

JT Poston – Poston finished last season on a tear and it has carried over in 2024 with two Top-10 finishes right out of the gates. He’s made the weekend in eleven straight starts with seven of those resulting in Top-10 finishes. In fact, he ranks 1st in the field over the last sixteen rounds in SGTOT, carried by a very strong short game. Even before he went on a tear, he’s always been strong on this style of course, gaining .8 strokes per round over 49 career starts as he’s strong on Bermuda greens. He’s made the cut here in four of his last five starts with two Top-10 finishes, including a 6th place finish last year.

Chris Kirk – Kirk won last season, but the rest of it was not terribly remarkable with only three other Top-10 finishes. His win at Kapalua came as a great shock to me as he was never on my radar going into the event. However, he played extremely well and then followed up last week with an 18th place finish which will keep him on my list of top plays for another week. He finished 3rd here a year ago and this is the type of course where you would expect him to stand out. He’s really strong with his irons from anywhere inside of 175 yards and ranked 14th in Proximity last season.

 

Middle Tier

Eric Cole – It looked like Cole had blown his cut streak last week with a really poor second round, finished up by missing a 7 foot birdie putt, but he was among the 17 golfers who received a reprieve from Joel Dahman, who missed a 5 foot putt that held the cut at -2. From there, he got back on track, shooting -10 over the final two rounds to finish in 13th place. Not only is he making cuts, but he’s finishing near the top almost every week. He has two Top-15 finishes to start 2024 and had four Top-5 finishes in five starts during the fall. He ranks 3rd in SGTG and 1st in SGTOT over the last 24 rounds and though he has only nine comp course starts, has gained over 1.3 strokes per round. I love that he stays active throughout the entire year. He’s 35 years-old so he realizes that he is in his prime earning years now and is not going to hit the snooze button after working so hard to finally get to this top tier of golfers.

Adam Hadwin – I am sure that one of these years Hadwin will let us down here, but so far, he is 8/8 with six Top-25 finishes, including four Top-10s. He missed the cut at Waialae last week, but I take that as him being so excited for the AMEX that he wanted to get there early. He’s always been good on this type of course, gaining over .9 strokes across 59 career starts. He’s been really good on the desert style layouts with two Top-10 finishes last season at the Shriners and also one at the WMPO, courses where he’s been very consistent during his career.

Taylor Montgomery – It looks like Taylor Montgomery is back in gear. Perhaps he is going to be another one of those golfers that we focus on during the fall and winter portions of the season while ignoring him once the tour moves to the southeastern portion of the schedule. He is from Vegas so has a lot of experience with the desert style courses on tour. He finished 5th here last year in his first start. He seemed to resurrect himself this fall in making four straight cuts with two Top-20 finishes and came back last week with a 13th place finish at The Sony Open. His irons have been decent during that stretch and short game is reliable. On shorter courses where there are a lot of easy birdies to be found, Montgomery is worth a start.

Andrew Putnam – His first round of 2024 at Kapalua was a little rocky, but the seven rounds after that have been great. He moved onto Waialae last week and finished 10th and now hits a course where he’s made the cut in six straight starts with four Top-25 finishes. He’s coming off of one of his more consistent seasons where he made 25/33 cuts with ten Top-25 finishes. The course matches up well for his style of play as he ranked 25th last season in SGAPP and 12th in SGP.

 

Lower Tier

Stephan Jaeger – Throw out the historical numbers on Jaeger. You have to be evaluating him over the last year as his game improved dramatically. He has not missed a cut going all the way back to April and only missed three in 33 starts last season. He is even starting to put together some quality finishes with six Top-25s in his last twelves starts, including an 18th place finish at the Sony Open last weekend. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 6th in SGTG and 10th in SGTOT. He finished 36th here last season and though the comp course numbers are not good, he’s playing better golf right now than at any other time in his career.

Alex Noren – I think this is going to be a turnaround season for Noren. He struggled for much of last season, but started to find his footing during the summer with a 9th place finish in Detroit, 23rd at The Open and 13th at the 3M. He missed the playoffs, but then made five straight cuts to end the fall season with two Top-3 finishes along the way. While he’s struggled at the longer, tougher courses curing his career, these types of setups have always worked well for him. In twenty-eight career starts, he’s gained just under .9 strokes per round. He’s known for for his exceptional short game, and strong putting skills so though he has not played here often, it should be the type of tournament where he can contend.

Billy Horschel – Billy was terrible last season and spent much of the year trying to rework his swing. He seemed to find it right at the end of the summer when he finished 13th at the 3M and 4th at Sedgefield. He stuck with it in the fall and went over the DP World Tour in the fall where he made the cut in all four starts and had three Top-20 finishes. That was enough to get the DFS world interested in him at the RSM Classic where he promptly missed the cut. He returned to action at The Sony Open last week and finished 18th so it seems like he’s on track to play well this year. His rolling numbers look good over the last sixteen rounds and he’s always been a very good putter on Bermuda grass. His comp course numbers are strong as you would expect so if he’s the player we know him to be and not the mess he was in early 2023, he’s a real value at this price.

Ben Griffin –  This was the time last season where you could play a cheap Ben Griffin each week in cash games and get a golfer to make the cut while also offering some salary cap relief. It looks like that might be the case again this year. After a hot start last season that rolled along until early spring, Griffin struggled during the summer on some of the tougher courses on tour. Overall, it was a solid season with twelve Top-25 finishes and he played really well in the fall making the cut in 5/6 starts with a tough playoff loss at Sanderson Farms and an 8th place finish at the RSM. Griffin is a Bermuda greens specialist, gaining nearly .75 strokes per round more than on other surfaces. He finished 32nd here last year and has been good on comp courses, gaining .77 strokes per round in eleven career starts.

Christian Bezhuidenhout – While CBEZ was not nearly the cut making machine last year as previous years, he still has courses like this one where he should have success. He’s a short game wiz that can sink putts so targeting him on shorter, easier courses is the way to go. He was up and down through much of the summer, but I was encouraged by his play this fall. He finished 6th at Sanderson Farms, made the cut at the Shriners and then played very well in three starts on the DP World Tour with three straight Top-20 finishes. He’s made the cut here twice and finished 11th last year.

 

GPP Player Pool

Core

Xander Schauffele	10900
Patrick Cantlay	10800
Sungjae Im	10100
JT Poston	9100
Chris Kirk	9000
Eric Cole	8800
Adam Hadwin	8300
Taylor Montgomery	8100
Andrew Putnam	8000
Stephan Jaeger	7900
Ben Griffin	7400

 

Secondary

Justin Thomas	9800
Akshay Bhatia	8200
Beau Hossler	7800
Alexander Noren	7800
Billy Horschel	7700
Tom Hoge	7600
Thomas Detry	7600
Erik van Rooyen	7500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	7300
Sam Ryder	7200
Grayson Murray	7100
Patton Kizzire	7000

 

Tertiary

Taylor Pendrith	7800
Davis Thompson	7600
Nick Taylor	7500
Ryo Hisatsune	7500
Alex Smalley	7300
Carl Yuan	6900
Robert Macintyre	6800