The Daily Spin – Shell Houston Open

It’s late night Tuesday/early morning Wednesday which means that The Daily Spin is ready for a full night of writing and in depth analysis for this week’s tournament, the Shell Houston Open. This is our last event before The Masters so much like the players will use this week as a warm up, we want to get our game sharp this week so we can be focused on that million dollar first prize that is looming next week. It is going to take a monumental effort next week, and more than likely a near perfect lineup, but one of us will be the winner of that prize so let’s get excited and get to work.

Last week was an interesting weekend for us here at The Daily Spin. We did not have issue getting players through the cut as we sported a 10 of 13 hit rate. If we count our honorable mentions, that jumps to 12 of 15. As Jimmy Walker received an honorable mention, we almost get to pat ourselves on the back, but we are not going to do that as it cheapens the picks that we make in other tournaments when we are truly convicted on certain players.

We faltered a bit on our read of how the weather was going to play out on Thursday morning. We stayed up late on Wednesday night reading over various reports and blogs looking at conditions. Our final takeaway was that the weather would be poor all day. Winds looked to be 20 mph out of the north with gusts all day and potential rain in the morning. When we read that the rain would dissipate before the first players teed off, it set our minds at ease and then we were just worried about the winds. Unfortunately, for us, the winds gusted all morning and then let off in the afternoon. This took its toll on a number of players that we were high on for the week. Weather is always a bit unpredictable, but we could have hedged our risk a bit by using one or two lineups of Thursday afternoon players only. Fortunately, the weather on Day 1 of tournaments rarely offers this wide of a difference in playing conditions so it is not a strategy that we will often need to employ.

The disappointing part of the weekend proved to be in how little certain players bounced back. Where Dustin Johnson struggled on the first day, he roared back over the rest of the weekend to finish 6th. Jim Furyk, on the other hand, started poorly on the first day and then never really put anything together the next three days and finished in a disappointing 58th place. Matt Kuchar actually made it through the brutal first morning at even par, but could not make a move on Friday or Saturday. A nice round on Sunday helped him move up to 15th, which was just a slight disappointment based on his price. Ryan Palmer was a star for us among the blue chip ranks, finishing up in 6th place for the weekend. It was not always pretty, but his skillset fit the course well and his finish was as we suspected. A good effort for the price we paid.

Our value picks were not strong for us last weekend. Although only two missed the cut, and just barely at that, only Shawn Stefani (26th), Brendan Steele (8th) and Brendon Todd (30th) helped our cause. Daniel Berger and Russell Knox both had tough starts and could not get back on track Friday, thus missing the cut. Freddie Jacobson and Will Mackenzie each made the cut, but played poorly over the last two days and added little extra value to our teams.

Our sleepers were a nice story for the tournament. John Peterson continues to be an enormous value for us in the lower tier of pricing each week. At Valero, he played his best Day 4 all year and managed a 10th place finish on the weekend. The guy just keeps making cuts and we are really proud of the fact that we were on him before anyone else in 2015. As his game improves, we will see his price slowly edge higher, but for now, he is a great pick his price range and we will keep him on our rosters in almost every tournament. Pat Perez was also a great story for us with a 20th place finish. We only wish we had stacked Peterson and Perez together. James Hahn was our lone disappointment in the sleeper category. What hurt with Hahn is that he rallied back well on Day 2 and was 2 strokes ahead of the cut before a late double bogey followed by another bogey took him one stroke below the cut line.

All in all, we were a little disappointed with last week. Getting players through the cut is great and helps to keep us competitive in cash games, but last weekend was a miss on GPP events. Fortunately, it was not Masters week. We have come up big on the bigger events this year and will do our best to keep that going next week. If you have not taken a look yet, please check out our special preview section on The Masters. Tournament history has been posted along with two preview articles. Here at the Daily Spin, we intend to take a deeper look at more players and give a thumbs up, down or neutral rating for nearly all players that you would consider as viable candidates for a roster spot.

And off we go to Houston this week for the Shell Houston Open. It’s another course that offers a lot of length and plays a lot like Augusta so it is a nice tuneup event for players. Check the weather as it looks like it will once again be a factor. Pay close attention as Thursday morning is expected to be interesting again. It is expected that there will be rain so conditions will be wet. We will want longer hitters in our lineup as there are not going to be many friendly rolls to help out those players that do not drive the ball as far. There are a lot of water hazards and bunkers throughout the course so it will not be easy for players who simply blast away off the tee. The course measure out at 7441 yards and plays as a Par 72. We have isolated a few key stats to target this week. We are going to look at Ball Striking (Total Driving/GIR), GIR, Par 4 Scoring, Scrambling and Strokes Gained Tee to Green. Of course, putting is important as well, but with wet greens, precision will not be quite as key and should be a neutralizing factor. We will only avoid those player that are just miserable on the greens.

We are excited for the weekend. We are getting to the heart of the golf season and are ready to be prosperous as the big tournaments come up on the calendar. Keep us informed of your progress each week and feel free to reach out to us through e-mail, Twitter or Facebook. We love to interact with our subscribers and followers so do not be afraid to give us a shout.

It has been an interesting week so far as the field has lost a bit of its luster with both Henrik Stenson and Jimmy Walker pulling out of the tournament. Each figured to be highly owned as Stenson has had success in Houston and Walker coming off a win last week in San Antonio. That leaves only a couple of players in the upper echelon of pricing for the week. In typical fashion, we do not own the most expensive player this week in Jordan Spieth. We do not blame you if you for rostering Spieth in any event he is in the field as his approach work and short game are nearly unparalleled. However, given his high price, lack of success here in two starts, and average ball striking this season, we are staying away. At his price, he really needs to finish in the Top 5 to make value and even though Spieth is a phenomenal player, the odds simply are not with him to be in the Top 5 week in and week out. There is a lot of value sprinkled through the lower range of prices so it is not difficult to get him on a team, but there are so many great values just under the top tier players that we think it just makes a lot more sense to use as many of those players as possible to construct your rosters for the week.

BLUE CHIP

Matt Kuchar – It is hard to avoid Kuchar each week given his incredible historical results and relatively consistent play. However, with his current form a little off, we are limiting our exposure to owning Kuchar in just one of six GPP lineups. We do not feel the need to own him in cash games as there are just too many good players in the middle range that offer similar upside for a lower price. His numbers are well known. Historically, Kuchar is not big off the tee, but is reasonably accurate, plays his irons well and has a solid short game. He is one of the top ranked players in scrambling each year as well as Par 4 scoring. He has three Top 10 finishes here since 2010 so take him for a GPP team or two and hope he returns to the form we have come to expect. Expect around 20% ownership levels for Kuchar this week.

Sergio Garcia – Our favorite Top 10 artist, Sergio will break your heart on Sunday, but he fills up the stat sheet really well each week. Sergio is a very good tee to green player and can be great or just okay with his putter. Garcia is coming off a year where he ranked 16th in Ball Striking and 14th in GIR. Sergio is always entertaining to watch. He does not always keep the ball on the fairway, but makes up for it by being a top scrambler. He also excels in Par 4 scoring where he ranked 2nd last season. Garcia has not played in Houston often, but did manage a 3rd place finish last year. Sergio will be widely owned, probably by a minimum of 20% of the field. He is a great cash game player so expect even higher ownership levels. However, Sergio has both a high floor and a high ceiling and works well in all formats. We own Sergio on four of six teams this week.

Ryan Moore – Moore has shown great form on tour this year. Although he has only made limited starts in Houston, he did finish 11th there in 2009. He has three Top 10 finishes a six Top 25 finishes for the season. He is 17th in strokes gained tee to green. His ball striking is nothing special, but he plays his irons well, and has a high birdie average which translates into extra points in most formats. We think Moore will be owned by 15-20% of the field this week. We own him on two of six teams this week.

JB Holmes – When we last left JB Holmes, he was ripping our hearts out on the last hole of the second round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. We hope most owners are still reeling and ignore Holmes this week. Unfortunately, we do not think that will be the case. Holmes has a very nice record in Houston with two Top 10 finishes and a 12th place finish last year. He has had a nice year on the tour so far as well with three Top 10 finishes so far. He has a lot of distance off the tee, although he has not been terribly accurate and is ranked 114 in GIR. Where he makes up ground is that he is ranked 9th in strokes gained tee to green and 5th in birdies. His statistics are not an ideal match for the course, but his form this year and success with the course make Holmes a nice pick for rosters this week. We own him on four of six teams this week. We expect 20-25% ownership levels for Holmes this week.

Lee Westwood – Our last blue chip this week is Lee Westwood, a player who has been very consistent this year. Lee has not missed a cut this year and has finished in a tight range, 12th to 25th in all starts. He is reliable and has performed well in Houston with two Top 10 finishes and six straight Top 30 finishes. He drives it reasonably well and his iron play and short game have elevated his results this year. He ranks 21st in strokes gained tee to green, 17th in strokes gained putting, and 10th overall in strokes gained. He is an average ball striker, but ranks 5th overall in Par 4 scoring. We own him on three of six teams this week. He will be owned by roughly 20% of the field and works well in both cash games and GPP formats.

Honorable Mention – Patrick Reed has a lot of the stats we are looking for this week. Great player in strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained putting, scrambles well and scores well on Par 4’s. He is not too accurate and only average in GIR, but his short game is so good that he does not need to worry much. He missed the cut in his lone appearance here two years ago, but has made great strides since then. Not many people are talking about Reed this week which makes him a good GPP play.

VALUE PLAYS

Brendan Steele – We have a lot of familiar faces in our value category this week and we will start with Brendan Steele. Each week his level of ownership rises and each week he performs better than expected. We get nervous seeing that he does not have great results in Houston, but we feel that his current form, combined with the statistical areas where he plays well will lead him to the best finish here for his career. He has not missed a cut this year, has two Top 10 finishes and four total Top 15 finishes. He ranks 13th in driving distance, 49th in GIR, 10th in strokes gained tee to green and 26th in ball striking. He works well in daily formats as he hits a lot of birdies which greatly boosts his scoring average. He is also ranked 5th this season in Par 4 scoring so everything we see should translate into a good performance this week. That said, we could only find room for him in one lineup this week as his past results make us a little nervous to go all in on Steele again this week.

Hunter Mahan – We have not talked much about Hunter Mahan this year and for good reason. He has spent much of the season seemingly on cruise control. Outside of the Northern Trust Open, where he posted a 20th place finish, he has underperformed his price in nearly every other week. What this leads to over time are opportunities to scoop him up at a value. We think that this could be that week. The great thing about Mahan is the high floor you get when you roster him. He is nine for nine in making the cut this season. Also, this is tournament that Mahan won in 2012. Mahan is a little boom or bust in Houston, but that is okay for GPP play. He has three Top 10 finishes in the last six years to go along with two missed cuts. Mahan is a talented ball striker, but has been a bit inconsistent with his irons and approach game this year which has hurt him in his tee to green game. He is a little above average in scrambling and ranks 12th in Par 4 scoring so he has all the tools to be successful here. He just needs to put his mental game together. We own him on two teams this week.

Shawn Stefani – Here is another player that we have been touting for the last month in our write ups. Stefani is from the Houston area and knows this course well. He played very well here last year on his way to a 5th place finish. He has only missed two cuts in thirteen starts this season and his scoring average is always relatively high compared to his price. He is getting more expensive each week, but he continues to support his price with strong play so we still see him as a value play this week. Stefani checks off many of the statistical categories that interest us this week. He is a great ball striker ranking 13th, 27th in GIR, 10th in birdie average and 38th overall in strokes gained and Par 4 scoring. Everyone is talking about Stefani this week as he works well in cash games and GPP contests. If you can stomach 25-30% ownership levels, Stefani should be in for a good week.

Daniel Berger – The risk reward gap is always wide for Daniel Berger. One week he looks like a budding star, the next week, he misses the cut. That is the life of a rookie on tour. However, given that the weather was largely responsible for last week’s struggles, we are going to be a little more forgiving than normal and hope that others will forget about him. He ranks 11th in ball striking, 31st in GIR, 30th in strokes gained tee to green, and 38th in Par 4 scoring. This will be his first time through Houston, but he excels in the right categories and should make a successful debut. We own Berger in three lineups this week and view him as a great bounce back candidate. We anticipate 15% ownership for Berger.

Russell Henley – Our final value play is Russell Henley. We like to find one cut maker each week and Henley fits that roll perfectly for our purposes. He placed 7th here last year so he has a lot of upside for his price and given the fact that he has not missed a cut this year, he has a high floor. Henley gets good distance off the tee, but is not very good when it comes to greens in regulation. This has led to him being below average in strokes gained tee to green, although he has putted well. We’re not looking for anything too special out of Henley, but would not be shocked if he surprised us to the upside. We have a lot of confidence that he will make the cut and are using him on three teams this week.

SLEEPERS

Danny Willett – It feels a little odd to be writing up the 47th ranked player in the world as a sleeper, but given his price, Willett falls into this category for the week. We are a little nervous watching Willett this week as he is a potential sleeper for The Masters as well so if he plays too well, we suspect owners will be on to him next week. Willet is leading on the Race to Dubai this season on the European PGA Tour. While most players that have come over from Europe have struggle on the US tour, Willett has been a bit of an exception finishing 29th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 12th at Doral. He hits the ball just under 300 yards off the tee and ranks 20th in Europe in GIR and 2nd in scrambling. We like Willett a lot this week and have him on three teams.

Brendon de Jonge – Another casualty of the wind last weekend, we think we are getting a nice discount on de Jonge this week. He has been a good cut maker in Houston having made five of the last six cuts with one Top 10 finish. He is ten of thirteen in making the cut this year with three Top 25 finishes. He ranks 30th in ball striking, 38th in GIR, and 32nd in Par 4 scoring. He is at a great price this week, and the course suits him well. He should have 10-15% ownership at this price and we will own him on one team this week.

Robert Streb – Oh, how fast a player can fall. Just two months ago, Streb was the ultimate value play as he stacked one great performance on top of another. Then just as suddenly as he had risen, he hit a rough patch and owners abandoned him in a hurry. We think this is as low as he will fall. Streb played well in his lone appearance in Houston in 2013 finishing in 22nd place. He has the requisite skills to be successful here. He needs to put the last couple of tournaments behind him and play his game. He ranks 23rd in ball striking, and 27th in total strokes gained. Even after his recent struggles, he still ranks 12th in Par 4 scoring. Sometimes in GPPs, you need to take a risk on a player that has fallen out of favor with the rest of the field. Take a shot on Streb this week. We think at a minimum that he will make the cut.

DEEP SLEEPERS

Carl Pettersson – Our final player this week is a deep sleeper. We do not use these players often, but since we constantly get questions on the lower range of pricing, we try to find a spot each week for one deep sleeper. Pettersson has made the cut in all five starts in Houston and even finished in 2nd place in 2012. There are no statistics that we can cite to point to Pettersson’s success at this tournament. He is not a great ball striker, poor in the GIR category, below average in strokes gained tee to green and 67th in Par 4 scoring. Sometimes players just have certain tournament where they play well and Houston is that for Pettersson. Before the winds took him down last week, he had a string of 5 straight cuts made. We would look for him to be owned by around 5-7% of owners this week.

That does is for The Daily Spin this week. As always, we hope you enjoyed it. Good luck and get to work getting ready for The Masters. We have two big weeks ahead!

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