The Daily Spin – Rocket Mortgage Classic
The Daily Spin – Rocket Mortgage Classic
RECAP
Scottie did it again last week, winning for the sixth time this year and before the end of June, an incredibly rare feat that not even Tiger Woods equaled in his career. It was an expected week for him to bounce back so I do not think too many people were surprised, but he really is at another level from the rest of the field this year. Once he started to putt even close to average it was over for everyone else on tour. Now it is just a matter of whether or not he can start to do it year after year or if this is just another brilliant season followed by a flameout as we have seen others do over the last decade in their pursuit to be the next Tiger Woods.
For me, I did not get too fancy with my lineup. It was a very rare week where I went for the balanced roster. I loved Scottie, but did not want to have to use five scrubs to balance out the salary cap issues. I instead started my team with Hideki, but only went down to Cbez. With this strategy in place, I did end up with Tom Kim on my team which scored me a huge number of points. The rest of my team was not bad, but could have been even better had they shown up and not dumped off a lot of points on Friday.
Russell Henley was the biggest letdown of the week for me. He’s been excellent all season and was on a course where his game fits well and he has enjoyed a fair amount of success. Unfortunately, he played miserably on Friday and could never crawl back to being close the rest of the weekend. He could not even get the bogey free round on Saturday after blowing it on the final hole of the day. It was a weird week for Henley who is usually so sharp on the short, Par 70 tracks.
Hideki was okay for the week even though he only finished 23rd. He managed an eagle, two birdie streaks and all four rounds under 70. He just never really made his big charge as he has done for most of the season so that was slightly disappointing.
Brian Harman played well for me. That was no surprise as nobody is more prolific in Top-10 finishes at TPC River Highlands than Harman. He was not really in the mix during the first two rounds, but came to life on the back nine on Saturday which carried over into him shooting a 62 on Sunday and taking him to 105 DK points.
CBez and Corey Conners rounded out my team and each hurt me with a 70 on Friday which killed their five point bonus opportunity for the tournament. CBez did have two bogey free rounds and Conners had an eagle so it was not a bad effort from either guy, but each left some points behind which you hate to see in weeks where everyone seems to get the bonus points.
Course
- Detroit Golf Club
- Par 72
- 7,370 yards
- Bentgrass/Poa
Detroit Golf Club is a Par 72 and will play at around 7,350 yards this week. It is a Donald Ross design. There are four Par 5 holes this week and outside of one behemoth which is over 630 yards, the others should be reachable in two shots for most of the field and I expect a lot of scoring this week on these holes which means a shift towards focusing more on players Off the Tee game this week as opposed to approach play. The fairways are wide and not difficult to hit. The rough has not proven to be much of a problem for players over the last two years as the bomb and gouge approach has largely worked to perfection in helping players post some silly low score. Expect a lot of driver off the tee this week with short irons and wedges on the approach. If for some reason, it is more of a struggle to work from, you could see more 3 wood like the last couple of weeks. The greens are smaller and are mostly poa with a small amount of bentgrass with a good amount of undulation, but they are not going to play overly difficult. With the additional Par 5 scoring opportunities, this will be more of a birdie-fest with scores approaching the -20 range. When looking for players this week, be sure to bump up SGOTT, Par 5 Scoring and BoB%.
Course Comps
- Sedgefield
- TPC Twin Cities
- Summerlin
- Keane Trace
- Stadium Course
- Silverado
- Deere Run
Field
The field is soft this week which is no surprise given that the US Open was two weeks ago and another elevated event took place. While it is weak, it is not as bad as it could be as there are a handful of golfers from the top of the rankings that made the trip. Two of the Top-25 golfers in the world, ten of the Top-50 and 42 of the Top-100 golfers made the trip to Detroit this week. With the tour headed overseas in two weeks, it marks a good time to rest up before making the long trip to prepare for The Open Championship. These are the types of events that are up for grabs compared to most of the recent stops on tour. The midsummer, filler events are often a good chance for a younger player to breakthrough to get their first tour win. Then again, Rickie Fowler won this event a year ago after so if some of the studs show up ready to play, they should be unstoppable on such an easy course as we have had more stars (Bryson, Finau, Fowler) than scrubs (Nate Lashley) win with Cam Davis being somewhere in the middle depending on how hot or cold he is running.
Weather
The weather looks beautiful this week. The winds are expected to be light on Thursday, with maybe some gusts in the very first hour or so, but that is about it. The winds are not expected to be much more than around 8-10 mph the rest of the day. Friday the winds are forecast to be a little gustier, but only around 10-15 mph. There is no precipitation in the forecast for either Thursday or Friday with sun all the way through Thursday before the clouds come Friday afternoon. Temperatures should be in the mid 70s so the players will be comfortable all weekend. I likely will not build many rosters weighted towards one wave or the other. If you build 100+ teams, it is always smart to have a few fully weighted wave teams just in case the forecast is completely off, but it does not need to be an emphasis item this week.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 30%
- Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
- Birdie or Better Percentage: 20%
- Scrambling: 10%
- Proximity: 10%
- Par 5 Scoring: 5%
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 5%
Cash Game Picks
Top Tier
Tom Kim – Kim played great for me last week with a 2nd place finish, losing in a dramatic playoff to Scottie Scheffler. He had been playing better coming into the week and it felt like it was only a matter of time before he put four complete rounds together to get himself back into contention again. His iron play has really turned around from early in the season and he again looks like the kid who won three times on tour in just over a year to start his career. I am a little concerned by his price this week and that he has played in eight straight events and eleven of the last twelve, but he is 22 so that makes it less of a worry than if it were an aging veteran though losing the playoff could be a bit of a letdown.
Alex Noren – It has been a great season for Noren who started out the year by making the cut in his first twelve starts before missing it in two of the last three. Still, I am highly encouraged by the improvement in his tee to green play this year, which added to an already solid short game has helped him to ten Top-25 finishes. He is never going to win on a bomber course, but on a course like this where his short game can really shine, I like his chances. He has two straight Top-10 finishes in Detroit and has played well throughout his career on comp courses, gaining just under .9 strokes per round in sixteen starts.
Akshay Bhatia – The PGA Tour website has Akshay listed at 6’1″ and 130 pounds. Imagine how he will hit the ball when he actually fills out his frame even a little bit more than where he is at today. He’s been excellent throughout his short career at carving up the easier courses where birdie opportunities abound. This is another spot where his elite game off the tee and a strong putter should get him deep into minus double digit scoring territory.
Taylor Pendrith – Pendrith is showing up everywhere this week for me in my research as a top play. He can be streaky, but this run over the last few months has been really impressive. He’s made the cut in eight of his last nine starts with seven Top-25 finishes and a win at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, another event where he went wild with his putter. He’s gained just over a stroke per round in seventeen career comp course starts. He ranks 3rd in SGTOT among this field over the last 24 rounds and in two starts in Detroit has finishes of 2nd and 14th.
Middle Tier
Maverick McNealy – Mav has been off the last three weeks, but prior to that had a string of three straight Top-25 finishes to give him a little momentum heading into the summer. He has only missed one cut this year in singles play and has six Top-25s along with three Top-10s in 2024. All areas of his game are in good shape right now after an injury plagued 2023 took its toll on him. He ranks 9th in SGTG and 7th in SGTOT over the last 24 rounds. The tee to green game has seen a big upgrade this year from previous seasons when he was getting by on short game play alone. He has two Top-25 finishes at Detroit in three career starts.
Aaron Rai – Rai is quietly having a very nice season with seven Top-25 finishes and has made the cut in eight of his last nine starts with five Top-25s. Over the last 24 rounds among this field, he ranks 1st in SGTG and has been exceptional in all areas save for his putting which is usually what hold him back. He finished 9th here a year ago in his first start and is likely to be in contention again this week.
Robert MacIntyre – It has been boom or bust for Bobby Mac, but there has been a lot more boom of late with a win in Canada and five Top-16 finishes in his last eight starts. He’s played his best golf this year on easier courses that offer plenty of birdie opportunities – Mexico, TPC Louisiana, Myrtle Beach, Valhalla (a joke of a PGA Championship course), Canada and TPC River Highlands last week. He can bang it off the tee and his putter is red hot, ranking 2nd among this field over the last 24 rounds. He should be a great fit for Detroit.
Davis Thompson – Davis is in good form over the last few months, making the cut in eight of his last ten starts with six Top-25 finishes. He ranks 5th in SGTG and 8th in SGTOT over the last 24 rounds and he is 2/2 making the cut in Detroit with a 24th place finish last year. In 13 career comp course starts, he’s gained over .94 strokes per round.
Lower Tier
Adam Svensson – It has not always looked great this season for Svensson, but the one thing we have been able to count on the last three months is that he will make the cut as he has played the weekend in eleven straight starts and is coming off of a strong 16th place finish last weekend at The Travelers Championship. He ranks 10th among this field in SGTG over the last sixteen rounds and it has only been his putter that has slowed him down. He’s made the cut here the last two years and finished 24th two years ago.
Matt Wallace – Wallace was quite to start the season, but has looked a lot better over the last 3 months. He finished 15th last week at the KLM Open on the DP World Tour and prior to that had made six of seven cuts on the PGA Tour with four finishes of 27th or better. His comp course numbers are above average, gaining over .75 strokes per round in fourteen career starts. He has made the cut in all three starts at this course with two Top-12 finishes. He ranks 5th in SGTG and 4th in SGTOT over the last sixteen rounds among this field.
Cam Davis – The numbers are not pretty for Cam right now, but if you look at where he was last season at this time (79th in the FedEx Cup Standings), he had a lot of ups downs until exactly this part of the schedule when suddenly the easier courses arrived and he took off like a…..Rocket! He played well in Detroit, Minnesota, Sedgefield, Silverado and TPC Summerlin, all easy comp courses where he regained his confidence. He has three straight Top-20 finishes at this course including a win back in 2021. Even with as lousy as he has played at times, he has still missed just four cuts this season and three were at challenging courses so this feels like a decent floor play for cash games with some upside potential if he can channel his strengths to the course again.
GPP Player Pool
Core
| Tom Kim | 11000 |
| Alexander Noren | 10200 |
| Akshay Bhatia | 9800 |
| Taylor Pendrith | 9600 |
| Maverick McNealy | 8900 |
| Aaron Rai | 8800 |
| Robert Macintyre | 8700 |
| Davis Thompson | 8300 |
| Matt Wallace | 7400 |
Secondary
| Ryan Fox | 8200 |
| Chris Kirk | 8100 |
| Ben Griffin | 7900 |
| Adam Svensson | 7600 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 7300 |
| Cameron Davis | 7200 |
| Sam Stevens | 7200 |
| Daniel Berger | 7000 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 6900 |
| Andrew Novak | 6700 |
| Justin Lower | 6500 |
| Troy Merritt | 6300 |
Tertiary
| Erik van Rooyen | 7800 |
| Mark Hubbard | 7700 |
| Lee Hodges | 7100 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 6900 |
| Chandler Phillips | 6700 |
| Mac Meissner | 6400 |
| Neal Shipley | 6300 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 6300 |
| Jorge Campillo | 6000 |
| Kevin Tway | 6000 |
| Henrik Norlander | 5600 |
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