The Daily Spin – RBC Heritage

The Daily Spin – RBC Heritage

RECAP

Excellent finish for The Masters, but a poor week for my main lineup. I will have more to write shortly so return later if you want full commentary on the weekend!

Course

• Harbour Town Golf Links
• Par 71
• 7,213 yards
• Bermuda Greens

Harbour Town is one of the best stops all year on tour for a non-major event. I put the course and the atmosphere around the event right up there with many of the other great stops that we see each year. We are also rewarded with a reasonably strong field which makes it even more fun. The course is a Pete Dye design in his classic style. The fairways are narrow and tree lined. Players will often be forced to club down from driver in order to keep it in fairway. The rough is on the short side so it is not too punitive to miss the fairway ever so slightly, but big misses will mean tree trouble. As it is a Pete Dye course, players will need to focus on shot placement off the tee more so than normal as having the right angle on approach will make a big difference. The Bermuda greens are much smaller than normal and some of the smallest we will see all season. This means that we either need to focus on golfers that are incredibly precise in terms of proximity, or those that really strong in terms of scrambling and short game prowess. As Jeff mentions each year, he likes to isolate accuracy and proximity in the FGI Model for this event and to see which players pop up the most across those two statistics in particular.

Course Comps

• TPC Southwind
• TPC Sawgrass
• Stadium Course
• Waialae
• Innisbrook
• Sedgefield
• Pebble Beach

Field

It is an elevated tournament this week which means that most of the stars are here for the PGA Tour with the exception of Rory McIlroy who withdrew after winning this past weekend. It is a NO CUT event this week and 72 golfers are in the field. If there is a major golf figure tied to the tournament (Tiger – Genesis, Arnold Palmer – API, Jack – Memorial) there is a cut, but the rest of the elevated events will play without a cut. This allows you to be a lot more aggressive with your builds this week so be sure to take advantage of it.

Weather 

• Hilton Head Weather Forecast – https://www.windfinder.com/weatherforecast/harbour-town_yacht-basin

The weather looks perfect this week for the first two rounds with light winds, sunny weather and temperatures peaking in the upper 60s to low 70s. No rain is expected on Thursday or Friday. The winds are slightly higher in the afternoon each day, but the differences as of now look small enough so that I do not see a big edge for either wave. If things change, you will get a more comprehensive update on Wednesday night, but right now, I will not be overweight any wave this week.

Local Connections

• Lucas Glover
• Russell Henley

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Tee to Green: 25%
• Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
• Birdie or Better Percentage: 15%
• Driving Accuracy: 10%
• Par 4 Scoring: 10%
• Proximity: 10%
• Scrambling: 10%

 

Cash Game Plays

Top Tier

Scottie Scheffler – Interesting price bump for Scottie this week as he is $2100 more than the next most expensive golfer in the field, Ludvig Aberg. It almost feels like DK put together the prices over the weekend with Rory in mind in the middle $12k range and when he WD, they simply deleted him rather than going back and doing the pricing over from scratch. As I mentioned last week, Scottie has only had his B+ game all season and he is still able to contend in any event that he enters, posting a 4th place finish at Augusta last week in an event where he felt like a bystander over the weekend. Typically, I would worry about a letdown after Augusta, but just a year ago, Scottie won The Masters and then cruised into Hilton Head and won the RBC Heritage the next weekend. He is one of the few golfers that really feels hangover proof on tour so it is just a matter of how comfortable you are in paying up to get him. In a no-cut event with plenty of options in the $6k range, it is not the sticker shock that it appears to be.

Patrick Cantlay – Cantlay has not been at his best all year and has largely been an afterthought in most tournaments. It is not that he has been bad this season, he just has not truly been in contention in the final round anywhere and once again had a very inconsequential week at Augusta, where for some reason, he is rarely in the mix. So why is he here in my column? Take a look at his course history at Hilton Head. He has six Top-10 finishes in seven starts with five of those resulting in a Top-3 finish. Not surprisingly, that puts him third in my comp course model as he is the type of golfer that seemingly brings out the best in him. Usually these are courses where precision iron play is a key element like here or Pebble Beach. That is the area of his game that has held up best this year.

Corey Conners – We will stick with Conners for another week. As long as his putter is working for him, he should continue to fare well as he is consistently one of the best golfers on tour off the tee and on approach. He is accurate off the tee and a solid iron player. The last couple of years have been a little rough here for Conners, but prior to that, he had three straight Top-25 finishes so I do not have any issues backing him, especially in a year where he has been much more locked in on the greens.

Russell Henley – Russ struggled mightily on Thursday last week, shooting an opening round 79 to put himself in a huge hole. He seemed on the precipice of working his way out of it, but bogeyed the final hole on Friday to miss the cut by a single stroke. That may be helpful to our cause this week as it gave him an extra couple of days off to rest up for the tournament this week. Henley is a great fit for this course even if the results have been a little bumpy over the years. He is one of the most accurate golfers off the tee, an excellent short to midrange iron player, and one of the best when it comes to Bermuda greens. He’s gained about a stroke per round in 67 career comp course starts and has three Top-25 finishes here in his last four starts. It is a great spot to get back onboard for a golfer that burned a lot of owners last weekend.

 

Middle Tier

Sepp Straka – The last sentence above applies here as well. In actuality, Straka’s two rounds closely mirrored Henley’s except that the blowup at the end was more epic. Straka shot 78 on Thursday, but then was -5 thru the first sixteen holes on Friday before the wheels came off and he bogeyed 17 and then tripled 18 to leave no doubt that he would not be around for the weekend. Overall, he has still been great this season and has two Top-5 finishes at Hilton Head in the last three years.

Daniel Berger – Berger keeps clipping along, picking up solid finishes in his comeback season. He finished 21st last weekend in his first trip back to Augusta in several years, his seventh Top-25 this year in ten starts. He has played well at this event during his career and his last three starts all resulted in Top-25 finishes. He ranks 4th on my comp course model this week behind only Scottie, JT and Cantlay, gaining nearly 1.2 strokes per round in 42 career starts. He has not had a real high profile finish since the WMPO where he was 2nd so his price has been kept in check, but he is a bargain this week and just as good of a bet as anyone in the $9k range by my estimates.

 

Lower Tier

Aaron Rai – Rai finished 27th at Augusta last week, but that was not a big shock considering that he lacks distance off the tee so the longer courses do not tend to be his strength. However, Harbour Town does not present that type of challenge and since it rewards accuracy over distance, Rai should be set as he is one of the most accurate golfers off the tee on tour. In fact, his tee to green game has been working well for him in recent weeks as he ranks 13th in SGTG over the last sixteen rounds.

Denny McCarthy – Denny has yet to miss a cut in ten starts this season and has six Top-25s so far. Usually it is his putter that carries him each year, but this year, in addition to the strong putter, his irons have been really good as he’s 45th on tour in SGAPP and 24th in Proximity play. This bodes well for Denny as he does have strong comp course numbers, but they are almost entirely from his putter alone. If he can continue the steady iron play, he can certainly score enough here to be competitive.

Brian Harman – I had Harmon in my player pool two weeks ago in San Antonio, but not nearly enough when I look back at where he was priced. Up until his win, this had been a quiet year for Harmon as he really had not been in contention anywhere, but as we have seen in recent years, when he is on his game, he can contend with the best. This has been a good stop for him in recent years with five of his last eight starts resulting in Top-25 finishes. with great comp course numbers over 90 career starts. He finished 12th and 7th here the last two years which is plenty of upside for the price.

Bud Cauley – It is good to see Bud Cauley back on track after he missed a couple of years battling injuries and struggled all the way through 2024. He has made 6/7 cuts this year with four Top-25 finishes and is riding a streak of three straight Top-10s. He ranks 7th in SGTG and 4th in SGTOT over the last 24 rounds among this field and his irons have been outstanding all year (15th in SGAPP, 3rd in Prox). Prior to injuries, he had decent success here with a 23rd and 9th place finish in back to back years and has gained .785 strokes per round in 46 career starts. If there were a cut this week, I would be more nervous about some reversion to the mean, but without a cut, Cauley becomes one of the top values on the board.

 

Punt

Ryan Gerard – Gerard currently sits at 31st in the FedEx Cup standings and yet here he is priced near the bottom of the field despite making the cut in 9/10 starts this year with five Top-25 finishes including back to back Top-10s. In fact, he ranks 11th among this elite field in SGTOT over the last 24 rounds. He is a good iron player and an outstanding putter, attributes that play perfectly for Harbour Town.

Eric Cole – Cole has been tough to handicap this year. Some weeks, we get flashes of the player he was a couple of seasons ago when he was playing and making the cut almost every week. Now however, it is really difficult to figure out when he will show up. Recent weeks have been better with finishes of 12th, 15th and 26th leading up to The Masters. He did also finish 5th at Waialae and 22nd at PB early in the year, two of our comp courses for the week. His iron game and short game have started to look like what they were when he was at his best and this is the type of course he has been at his best throughout his career.

Ryo Hisatsune – Normally, this would be more of a GPP play as Ryo has been up and down this year, but recently has finished in the Top-10 in three of his last six starts. Without a cut, I do not mind the extra risk as he should give you four rounds at a very low salary so we use him more for the relief on the upside than any expectation of a strong finish. It is his first trip to Harbour Town, but in nine comp course starts, he has gained over 1.1 strokes per round.

Matt Kuchar – Last week, I included Phil and now this week, Kuch. What am I thinking? Well, this is a no-cut event so right off the top, the damage he can do (unless he WD) is minimal. You get four rounds out of Kuch at a course where he has consistently played some of the best golf of his career. Over the last decade, he has nine starts here, never missed a cut and finished in the Top-25 eight times. There are not many courses left where Kuch can really compete, but at a shorter track that is not as driver heavy where his short game can shine, he could definitely have a shot at a Top-25 finish while also providing massive salary cap relief.

 

GPP Player Pool

Core

Scottie Scheffler	13100
Collin Morikawa	10900
Patrick Cantlay	10000
Corey Conners	9800
Russell Henley	9700
Sepp Straka	8800
Daniel Berger	8300
Aaron Rai	7900
Denny McCarthy	7900
Brian Harman	7600
Bud Cauley	7500

 

Secondary

Jason Day	9100
Sungjae Im	8700
JT Poston	7800
Michael Kim	7500
Harris English	7200
Tom Hoge	7100
Ryan Gerard	6600
Eric Cole	6400
Sami Valimaki	6200
Matt Kuchar	6000

 

Tertiary

Sahith Theegala	7300
Stephan Jaeger	6900
Billy Horschel	6800
Jacob Bridgeman	6700
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	6300
Ryo Hisatsune	6300
Joe Highsmith	6200