The Daily Spin – NFL Week 3

Just when I felt like I was getting the hang of the pricing model for DraftKings, they made some big adjustments this week that forced me to dedicate many extra hours of research towards finding the key plays that I wanted in order to unlock the value required to get to our 3x goals for the week. The cheap wide receivers are still out there but they were not jumping off of the page quite as much as last week when we had several players in the upper $3k range to low $4k range that were easy to plug and play while hammering away with stars like Tom Brady, Kareem Hunt, Keenan Allen and Ty Montgomery.

Each Sunday night, the last thing that I do before going to sleep after the Sunday night game is to build my first skeletal cash lineup for the week. I like to get a feel for the pricing and to see which players stand out that I want to pay up for and which players are priced so cheaply that they will be on the majority of my teams to unlock value. Last Sunday was one of those nights where I never got comfortable with the pricing right away and so it turned into one of those weeks where I had to chip away at the injury reports and scour through the matchup charts to slowly uncover the hidden gems that we need to be playing this week to have continued success.

Last week ended up with mixed results which was a little disappointing as we had all of the pieces to have a killer week, but had just a couple of players that let us down. All of my cash lineups were around 150 and above, but unfortunately in the large fields, the line was just a shade above 150 so my Patriots stack, which posted close to 180 points cashed with ease while my other two rosters fell just short at roughly 146 and 148 points. The winning roster managed to stack Brady with Cooks, who was the one Pats WR who could not get in on much of the action. I used three RBs in Gordan, Montgomery and Hunt, all of which played really well to keep the team moving ahead. I used Cooks, Lee and JJ Nelson at WR (Statboy piped up to point out the value there and with Brown out, he was very much in play). I rounded out that team with Charles Clay who was a total letdown at tight end for us and contributed very little to a couple of teams which cost us. I used the Ravens defense here and they were great as expected.

The difference between that team and the couple teams that did not quite hit in big games, but still won a little over half of the head to heads entered, focused on Rodgers and Ryan at the QB position. Rodgers struggled early, but got his points in garbage time, but Ryan was a victim of game flow and since the Packers did not keep up their end up the shootout in the early going, Ryan did not need to throw as often, which meant that a hot start from Julio Jones (3 catches for 68 yards in the 1st quarter), largely went to waste as he finished with just five catches for 108 yards, catching just one ball in the second half. Coby Fleener helped the effort with a garbage time touchdown to deliver value for the other cash teams, but I the player that took me down last week was Cooper Kupp.

Perhaps I bought into the hype just a little too soon after watching him during the preseason, listening to all of the buildup and  seeing him play well in his first game in catching four passes on six targets for 73 yards and a TD. I thought that with Josh Norman focusing his attention on Sammy Watkins that it may open things up for Kupp underneath and allow him to have a Jarvis Landry style game where he could catch 6-8 passes for 60-70 yards and hit value for his price. He started well enough in catching three passes for 33 yards in the first half, but then that was the end of it. He did get tackled on the 1 yard line on one of his catches so we were extremely close to pulling it off, but his lack of production in the second half made the difference between cashing and just missing out. I had the option available in Lee or Nelson, and those were better plays obviously. I should have stuck with known entities for cash games given the pricing structure and ease with which Lee and Nelson’s production could be projected. Even if Nelson did not score a TD and ends with a 4 catch, 80 yard day, we’re still good to go based on his price and we knew the fit there better than we did with Kupp. Hopefully, you were able to work through things last week as it is a week where the chalk plays were good to us overall and there was plenty of value to be found.

Moving on to Week 3, we’ve already discussed the tricky pricing that confronts us for the main slate of games. It is unfortunate that the Rams/49ers tilt was not on the main slate as I liked both Gurley and Hyde in that game and both players produced big, multi TD performances. When we look at those two backs, the key element to them being such DFS gems is not any special ability or athleticism in comparison to other backs. The difference here is in opportunities. Both of these backs have become three down backs for their respective squads and are going to continue to get 20-25 opportunities per game (carries plus targets). This is the one thing that I love about analyzing the NFL as opposed to golf. A golfer can be a great fit for a course, but just not feel it and if it is not a big event, totally kick it in since the only person he has to let down is himself. In the NFL, we can work with an idea of game flow, estimate touches, project point totals based on matchups and come up with a reasonable range of outcomes. Obviously, injuries happen and games do not always go as planned, but seeing usage and understanding how opportunities will be distributed is our best edge over the novices in NFL DFS contests. Hyde and Gurley have joined the very select group of featured backs that play all three downs and have a strong role in the passing game for their teams. These are developments to keep an eye on and to take advantage of this season. Now that Melvin Gordon’s price is starting to balloon to catch up with the amount of volume he is receiving in the Charger’s offense, we’ll need to hunt around for value where we can find it.

In terms of looking at roster construction for the week, three of the positions were relatively straight forward, but the other two presented some issues. The way that you play the RB and WR situation this week is probably going to be the reason that you succeed or fail this weekend. At QB, our options are really wide open. Neither DK or FD have made it too tough to roster a capable QB that can easily deliver on their price. We are getting enough value between the Atlanta/Detroit matchup and the Oakland/Washington matchup to get you started as each game has above a 50 point total and capable QBs on each side.

The tight end position was also not terribly difficult to work through for the week although I HATE this spot and seem to fall into the value trap too often. This week….it is going to be different, I swear! I did not pay up for Gronk this week as that would squeeze us even tighter at other positions where our salary cap limitations would make an already challenging situation nearly unbearable. We are also very fortunate that there are 3-4 TE’s in the low $3k range that should be heavily involved in the passing attack for their teams this week and who need to do very little to live up to their price.

On defense, there are four to five options that make sense just based on the matchups. After the first two weeks, you can see that saving a little money for a capable defense usually makes sense as the Ravens and Rams have shown us the first two weeks. There are so many bad QBs in the NFL right now and so many teams that are willing to trot out utter garbage as a backup that there are always good options to look to in order to add points rather than just conserving them for our cash game teams. Getting 8-10 points at a minimum for your defense makes all of the difference in the world most weeks so unless we get a real cheap defense that is going against a team on its second or third QB, save a few dollars to pay up on defense. You will thank me later.

This week, after much deliberation and research, I was able to find the most value at the WR position, which is usually the case. The starting RBs have seen a price bump this week and there are not nearly as many obvious matchups as there have been the first two week. I think it is important in weeks like this to just lock in the best players with the best matchups, even if that means you end up paying up. This week, I really feel like the strategy for both cash and GPPs is going to be to rotate a combination of the top 4-6 backs available and then work around them with a large combination of cheap wide outs with the hopes that you find the Jerome Kearse or JJ Nelson that sparks your team to glory.

That’s not to say that this is the only way to construct your winning rosters for the week. You could look to the middle tier wideouts, go cheap on on one of you RB’s and hope that whatever committee that back is a part of provides enough volume to get the job done, but I personally feel like there is a lot more guesswork at the RB position this week and I want to have some certainty when I am building my cash game rosters. Let’s just talk through some of the concerns that I have this week for a handful of teams.

I really liked what I saw from the Detroit Lions on Monday night against the Giants. They played tough defense (along with the Giants playing terrible offense), rushed the ball well and distributed it efficiently in the passing attack. We saw some really nice things from Amir Abdullah in the rushing attack which were exciting and he showed some explosive flashes during the game which made me think that there is the potential for him to be a lead back going forward. However, as we’ve seen in Detroit, they like to mix it up and Theo Riddick was a revelation in the passing attack out of the backfield last season. Both played effectively and did some nice things when they had opportunities. Now what? I can see each of them continuing to have a role in the offense as the season wears on, but both being neutered of true fantasy value on the daily side due to the committee approach.

In Chicago, the season started with everyone believing that Jordan Howard was going to be the featured back getting the majority of the carries and targets out of the backfield. That lasted all of zero games as Tarik Cohen hopped into the lineup and became a Darren Sproles type of back grabbing passes and getting the occasional carry to keep the opposing team off balance. He was in a nice spot at a cheap price again last week and delivered value as the Bears were routed by the Bucs, which kept Cohen heavily involved in the passing game. This week, it appeared Cohen might assume the lead role for the Bears after Howard sustained a shoulder injury. Unfortunately, for fantasy owners, Howard is now expected to play this week which muddies the waters. With Cohen now sitting at $5,600, he’s not looking like a value any longer and even Howard’s reduced price is not attractive given the injury concerns.

This same story is in play around the league right now. Do you want to jump on one of the Patriot’s backs this week? Both James White and Mike Gillislee have been good this year, but now both are well above $5k and with Belichik, anything is possible in a given week with a running back. The Panthers have an intriguing matchup with the hapless Saints at home this week and Jonathan Stewart looks cheap at $4,700, but he has little to no role in the passing game and is almost totally TD dependent to deliver value. This should be a breakout game for Christian McCaffrey this week as the Saints have had a tough time defending RB’s in the passing game. Then you look at his salary at $6,100 and you realize that he will probably need to find the endzone to deliver on that price.

I can break down almost every team in the league in the same way. Three down backs that play a pass catching role are gold, particularly if they are playing with a QB that is capable enough of holding up his end of the bargain to keep teams from being able to stack the box against them. This is why it is so rare for me to punt at the RB position. Paying up is not always going to guarantee results, but if I can lock in a 20-25 opportunity per game effort, over time it is going to pay off for us. This has not always been the way things have worked and there will be weeks where things could flip. Two years ago, it seemed like I was doing everything in my power to stack two or three studs at WR and then punting at RB as starters went down with injuries. However, right now, given the state of pricing, especially where it is tight, I am paying up to load up my backfield and taking more fliers at WR in my cash game approach.

 

QB	DK	FD
Cam Newton	6600	8100
Matthew Stafford	6200	7900
Kirk Cousins	6100	7600
Derek Carr	6800	8400
DeShone Kizer	5000	6900

 

At QB, let’s just lock in at the top and move on. I threw Kizer on as a cheap salaried option if you want to take things a different direction, but I think the upside is so high for the other four listed above that I will almost certainly be paying up to try to capture some additional upside. Of the four, I think I am most nervous about Cam Newton who just has not looked like himself since losing in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. He’s not running as much, he looks stiff when he delivers the ball and he’s been erratic and off target in the first two games of the season. Also, he lost Greg Olson to a foot injury last week which will further restrict his options. So after all of this glowing praise, why is he here? The one team that can cure the offensive woes for most teams in the league comes to town in the New Orleans Saints who made Sam Bradford look like a Hall of Famer and then got ripped to shreds by a future Hall of Famer last week with Tom Brady throwing for over 400 yards. It gets worse for the Saints as the one bright spot in their secondary, CB Marshon Lattimore is out with a concussion this week. If the Panthers can’t get right on offense this week, it is going to be a long season from here, even if they do manage to get off to a 3-0 start.

Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins will be firing away on Sunday night in what should be a back and forth contest. Cousins is still working on developing chemistry with his receivers this year, but should be able to find his rhythm against a back Raiders secondary who were near the bottom of the league last year against the pass. Derek Carr is on the other side of the ball and the Raiders are expected to score 28.5 points in a game with a 54 point total this week. He’s been very efficient this season with five TD passes in two games and his passing totals might have been even higher had the Raiders not shifted to more of a grind out the clock style of attack in both games. With the Redskins expected to keep pace a little better than the Jets, but without near the defense of the Titans, this should be a high scoring affair where each QB is well positioned for a nice day.

Matthew Stafford offers a lot of value this week coming off of a win in New York on Monday night. He’ll be at home for a pivotal game with the Falcons that should show us if these 2-0 Lions are for real this time or just the pretenders that they turn out to be every year. This should be a high scoring game with a point total of 51 in play and the Lions expected to put up 24 points. Against a Falcon team that is capable of scoring in quick bursts, the Lions are not going to be able to sit back and run the ball to control the clock. This game has a 300 yard performance for Stafford written all over it and he’s my favorite play in terms of value for the salary this week.

 

RB	DK	FD
Lev Bell	8800	8700
Kareem Hunt	8000	8300
Jay Ajayi	7700	8200
Ty Montgomery	6900	7200
Isaiah Crowell	4800	6600
Darren Sproles	3900	5200
Dalvin Cook	5900	6500
Devonta Freeman	6700	8200

 

I am going to focus most of my attention on the top of this list as I want to find a way to play the top four names on this list when possible. My rationale follows along with what I discussed at length in my introduction for the week. We want three down backs with a role in the passing game. Ajayi might not get quite as many targets as the others, but the carries are always there and he’s up again a Jets defense that gave up its best run stopper before the season started in a trade. I envision the Dolphins as a team sticking with the run this season in an effort to keep the pressure off of having to force Jay Cutler to make plays. They want Cutler to be a game manager and I think they would be very happy if he could do it to the tune of what Alex Smith does for the Chiefs. Between the volume of carries that Ajayi is receiving and the number of short passes being thrown to Jarvis Landry, the Dolphins are looking to play mistake free football to control the clock. I don’t see them deviating from that plan of attack this week on the road in New York where I think they will have more of a fight than the point spread indicates.

Le’Veon Bell is off to a slow start this season, but I am not too worried yet. This is the game that I earmarked after his return to camp where I figured he would hit his stride. In Cleveland, he was jumping back into things after missing training camp and showed some requisite rust. Last week, he ran into one of the tougher defensive fronts in the NFL in the Vikings, but he had over 30 touches so his place in the offense is certainly secure. This week, he heads to Chicago where he will again be the workhorse, but I anticipate he will face much less resistance than he did a week ago. Big Ben’s struggles on the road are well known, but this has not been an issue for Bell. He should be leaned on heavily this week and I envision another 25-30 opportunity effort.

Kareem Hunt was shutdown last week….for the first half. After that, he exploded for two TDs and kept his strong start moving ahead. This week, he travels to LA where the Chiefs will be the latest team to embarrass the Chargers in their new home by having more of their fans in attendance than the front running LA crowd which now has two teams in the city that they do not care about.  The Chiefs have been strong on offense this year and Hunt has become the workhorse back that they seem to be able to find year after year to lead their team. He’s a little more expensive this week than I would like to see, but given his usage and after watching Ajayi have success against the Chargers a week ago, I am willing to pay up to get 20-25 opportunities to touch the ball in an offense that is evolving into one of the better units in the league.

I heard on SiriusXM this week that the Packers might trim Ty Montgomery’s role in the offense to make sure that he gets through the season unscathed. He’s not exactly a power back so touching the ball 20 times a game might be harder on him than a normal running back. Until it happens, I will stick with him. The 7-8 catches per game he seems to always have help enormously for PPR purposes and he’s getting the brunt of the work around the goal line. With the Packers back at Lambeau this week, they are sure to put up a lot of points, even if the Bengals are tougher on defense than average.

Usually, I avoid Devonta Freemna on the road, but this week is a little different as the Falcons head to Detroit where they will play indoors and on a fast surface similar to what they play on at home. Freeman has been very effective in two games so far and has found the endzone three times. The Lions were near the bottom of the league a year ago against the run and I expect Freeman to get plenty of chances again this week. He’s borderline in cash games here given his timeshare with Tevin Coleman, but I think he gets the volume he needs this week to approach value.

The last three back this week are all in good matchups, but without some questions marks. Dalvin Cook ran well in Minnesota’s opener against the Saints, but a knee injury to Sam Bradford completely changed the outlook for Cook’s season. Without the threat of a strong passing attack to push the offense, the Vikings will rely more on Cook, which is great, but opposing defenses will also be able to focus more on stopping him, which offsets any increase in volume. He’s still the Vikings best hope with the miserable Case Keenum at QB and they need to do everything they can to get him going in the short passing game if they hope to win any games while Bradford is out.

Isaiah Crowell was projected to be a solid RB option this season for the Browns, but has not lived up to expectations in the first two games. However, in his defense, the Browns were up against the Steelers and Ravens. The Steelers got out to a lead late in the game that forced the Browns to throw it more than they would have liked and the Ravens simply played shutdown defense all day. If there was ever a spot to get on track, it would be against the Colts who have not impressed much this season and were worst against the run in terms of DVOA last season.

The Eagles do not have a true starting running back this season. They are absolutely the definition of running back by committee. So far, Darren Sproles is getting the majority of the snaps and even picked up an unusually high ten carries last week against the Chiefs. He’s cheap this week and is at home against the Giants who were rolled up by the two headed monster of Abdullah and Riddick last week in New York. He’s priced down at $3,900 so hitting value should be possible given how much the Eagles like to throw the ball this season.

 

WR	DK	FD
AJ Green	8100	7500
Kelvin Benjamin	6700	6600
Emmanual Sanders	5800	6900
Devante Adams	5600	6800
Jermaine Kearse	4600	5800
Kendall Wright	4300	5600
Devin Funchess	4200	4800
Rashard Higgins	4000	5100
Brandon LaFell	3700	4600
Geronimo Allison	3000	4600

 

This is where things get dicey for us. Paying up did not help us at all last week with Julio Jones and I get the sense that paying up this week would not be beneficial either with so many solid plays available at running back and few great ones at receiver. I am adding AJ Green to my list based on all of the numbers and the opinions of other in the industry that I respect, but I am not that happy about it. The Bengals are awful this season and not looking like a team that is going anywhere soon. They have yet to score a TD in two full games and get to travel to Lambeau this week where they are sure to take another drubbing. That’s the bad news. The good news is that they can’t run the ball, Green Bay is going to score a lot of points and the Bengals should have some garbage time options to throw the ball up and down the field against vulnerable defense. I think I may actually prefer Brandon LaFell here for our purposes at just a fraction of the cost. He needs to do very little to meet value and if he vultures a late TD, we’re going to be in great shape. AJ, on the other hand has a lot of work to do to reach the 24 points he’ll need to make owners happy.

The Packers are a team to keep an eye on this week as well. It looks like Randall Cobb is doubtful at this point. In a game that the Packers should easily win, it would be foolish to throw him out there if there is even a question about his health. This leads to an upgrade for Devante Adams who has shown himself to be very capable when asked to take on a larger role in the offense for Green Bay. The other player who is interesting if Cobb is out will be Geronimo Allison. Allison was awful on Sunday against the Falcons. He ran a poor route and allowed the Falcons to intercept a pass late in the first half that turned into a TD for Atlanta. The play prior to that, he was called for a pick which negated a long gain and scoring opportunity. In limited action, he has been productive. He’s risky for cash, but even if he can manage 6-7 points, the savings generated by utilizing his minimum salary opens up a lot of options for the rest of your team.

The next duo that captured my interest is Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess. With the loss of Greg Olson, these two are both in play this week. I’ve been waiting for two years to see something out of Funchess and have cried wolf many times, but this time is going to be different. He’s up against the Saints at home and with the Saints down their top corner, Funchess should be open all day. For Benjamin, this should be a big day. Then again, Benjamin is an enigma to me as he is so inconsistent. Every time he puts together one or two good performances, he follows that with a bunch of duds. And when I say duds, I mean games with zero or one catch. If he doesn’t find a way to haul in 6 passes for 80 yards and a TD in this game, I think I will finally be forced to capitulate and give up on him.

Emmanual Sanders had a very nice game a week ago against the Cowboys in catching two TD passes, but surprisingly, did not get much of a salary increase this week. Perhaps it is due to the odds makers being a little nervous to see how these Broncos perform in their first endeavor away from their home turf. Buffalo is good at making games ugly and it won’t shock me to see a low scoring grind of a game again this week. He has a good matchup against Tradavious White and Trevor Siemian has looked capable in the first two games this year. The price is right, but I still like the option of dropping down a bit so we can pay up at running back.

My favorite value play this week at receiver is Rashard Higgins who many of us had not heard of until a week ago when he came up from the Browns practice squad and received 11 targets, catching seven for 95 yards. With Corey Coleman injured he seems likely to continue to receive plenty of targets and he’ll get to do that against a Colts defense that is still missing Vontae Davis who is always hurt or on the injury report at a minimum. This will be a chalky play, but he’s cheap at $4,000 and while he’s not likely to see 11 targets again, 6-8 should work for our purposes as long as his price remains in this range.

 

TE	DK	FD
Zach Ertz	5000	6500
Jack Doyle	3600	5300
Eric Ebron	3300	5200
Evan Engram	3200	5100
Jared Cook	3100	5200

 

I don’t think you can go wrong here with the options listed. If you want to be comfortable, just pay up and grab Zach Ertz. He’s become the favorite target of Carson Wentz over the last 10-11 games they’ve played together and you know he is going to get 8-10 targets per game. $5k is a little higher than I like to pay for TE’s, but he’s almost becoming bust proof as his floor is about as high as any other TE in the league.

If you do not want to pay up, the other four options all seem like great plays this week. Jack Doyle saw his targets jump once the Colts moved Jacoby Brissett into the starting QB spot and he’s up against the Browns this week who are always easy to target as a defense as they were last in the league a year ago in DVOA against the TE position.

Eric Ebron has assumed a more regular role in the Lions offensive attack this season and he’s playing against a Falcons defense that has struggled against TE’s over the last year. He was quiet against Arizona, but looked good in catching five passes for 42 yards and a TD against the Giants. This should be a high scoring game so the Lions should be targeting Ebron a lot this week.

Evan Engram looks to be adjusting to the NFL well in his first two starts and the athletic rookie was rewarded last week in catching his first TD pass. With the Giants struggling to run the ball in any meaningful way, the short pass is important in picking up those yards that the Giants are not able to get on the ground. I think Engram will continue to see 5-6 targets per game with plenty of work in the red zone where he can use his versatile size and athleticism to be a force.

Jared Cook is working his way into the Raider offense, but his price still makes him a bargain this week against a Redskin team that allowed the most receptions and receiving yards against TE’s last season. With the game expected to be a shootout and with Josh Norman making it a little tougher than normal to get the ball to Oakland’s talented receivers, this should be a game where the Raiders lean on Cook more than normal.

 

DEF	DK	FD
New England	3800	4900
Miami	3700	5100
Denver	3600	5100
Pittsburgh	3400	5000
Philadelphia	3000	4500

 

The defenses this week were pretty straight forward. I target the worst offenses each week and try to save up enough to make sure I can find an aggressive defense to take advantage of it. The Pats will face a rookie QB in Deshaun Watson at home. Miami heads out to New York to face a Jets team in disarray on both sides of the ball. The Steelers go to Chicago to play a team starting Mike Glennon at QB and a bunch of third and fourth string wide receiver. The Broncos continue to have on of the top defensive units in the league and will be all over a Bills offense that gave up on the passing game before the season started and will have trouble scoring against anyone this year. The Eagles are the value play if you need one as they host a Giants team that looks like a shell of its former self that has all the appearances of a group on the verge of crumbling from within due to infighting and a lack of vision from the coaching staff. Take your pick. I tend to focus on teams that are playing at home, but I think I like the Steelers against interception prone Glennon as my favorite option this week.