The Daily Spin – NFL Playoff Edition

And we are on to the playoffs! I am feeling very happy about that after last weekend’s debacle. I went into the weekend feeling really good about my team as there were some nice values on the board and some low dollar players available. And then I started watching the Redskins/Giants game and I play after play I started to think, hmmmm, where is Roger Lewis? Is that #18, nope. Did I miss something. I scrolled back through Twitter. I searched his name on the internet looking for something I must have missed. Nothing. I checked the inactive list. Nothing. I looked up the beat writers who cover the Giants….same story. Now, it’s true that he’s had an ankle issue over the last few weeks, but that did not stop him from being targeted 30 times in three games. Yes, it is Week 17, but a simple inactive designation would have been nice. A lot of people were asleep at the wheel on this one. My only solace came from watching Tommy G go to war with a writer who covers the Giants who somehow missed this story. Yes, the reporter had mentioned the ankle during the week, but Lewis was expected not just to play, but to be the primary target for the injury depleted Giants. One would think someone covering the Giants would have a list of injured players to watch during warmups just in case it looks like someone who is expected to play a featured role is suddenly out of the mix completely. That was the first zero.

The Patriots got off to a good start against the Jets and although Gronk did not have any early receptions, Dion Lewis was killing it for me so I thought I had plenty of time for both players to make good contributions. Again, I was watching this game, but this time, I could clearly see #87 out on the field, running routes, throwing blocks….playing, and yet, not playing. No targets. All day. It felt like it was scripted from the outset. Gronk would play, but deliberately be kept out of Brady’s crosshairs, potentially to avoid any injuries before the playoffs.

Two teams, one with something to play for and one with nothing to play for. Another zero. Surprisingly, my team hung in there for much of the day, but when you take not one, but two zeroes, you are not going to win a cash game. It was a frustrating finish to the regular season, but the playoffs are here, the Super Bowl is coming soon and the Vikings are still a little over a week from crushing me emotionally yet again. Like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football, I am preparing for a full sprint, feeling like this is finally the time, and yet, as a always, the outcome seems almost inevitable. I’ve made a big trade to secure Super Bowl tickets this week so it’s all downhill from here. I’ll fill you in as the carnage plays out, but I’m just going to start by saying that the first two pieces of the plan are the Rams and Saints winning this weekend.

Before I give you a few players to focus on this weekend, you’re going to need to adjust your mind for the playoffs. To build a roster this week, you are going to have a few names that are not so eye catching. You will probably have several players from a couple of teams on your roster. You are not going to have a simple guideline for figuring out what to shoot for with the line to cash this week either. You are going to have to go with as many quality players as possible and hope that the marginal players that you do elect to go with give you enough of a boost to get you a win.

The games this weekend are some of the least compelling for me in recent memory on the AFC side. I had hoped the Ravens and Chargers would storm the party and keep it interesting, but we ended up with the Bills and Titans managing to stumble in and it seems highly likely that both will go rather quietly this weekend. On the NFC side, we get two really compelling games, even if the point spread says otherwise. Both NFC games have what my friend Robert would call, charisma.

Let’s take a quick look at the Titans vs Chiefs game to start our weekend.

Chiefs Defense: 30th DVOA, 32nd RUN, 23rd PASS
Titans Defense: 21st DVOA, 7th RUN, 24th PASS

The Chiefs looked ready to fold up shop and go home after blowing their 5-0 start and falling to 6-6, but then something special happened and Andy Reid gave up his play calling duties. Suddenly, the Chiefs started to give the ball to rookie stud Kareem Hunt again and just like that, they won four straight games and rolled into the playoffs as the 4th seed. They’re up against a Titans team that doesn’t do a lot of things really well. Derrick Henry is the featured back this week with DeMarco Murray unable to play again. This is a matchup I have not heard many folks talking about, but it’s a huge spot for Henry, who had 28 carries and two targets in a tough battle against the Jags. If the Titans want to win, they’ll need to get Henry going to control the ball and keep the ball out of the hands of KC. More than likely, they will fall behind and need to throw the ball to stick around. It should be a good spot for Rishard Matthews to have a good day as the Chiefs rank 31st against WR1’s this season. Over the last month, he’s had some challenging CBs to go up against, but he should not have to worry about Marcus Peters all game as Peters tends to stick to his side of the field. For the Chiefs, they’ll need to get the passing game going against a Titans defense that is tough against the run, but struggles against the pass. Kareem Hunt is in play with the Titans ranking dead last in the league against pass catching RBs. They’re not much better against the TE, ranking 24th and it’s a great spot for Travis Kelce. Unfortunately, his price makes him tricky to roster as this is a week where we probably want to load up on the high powered RBs. Finally, Tyreek Hill is also viable. Even with the WR/CB matchup not being overwhelmingly positive for Hill, he tends to draw single coverage and the Chiefs do a great job of getting him the ball in a number of ways in the open field that allows for him to make explosive plays. The Chiefs are projected to score 26.5 points this week, the second highest team total this week and all of their primary weapons on offense, including Alex Smith are in play.

Falcons vs Rams

Rams Defense: 6th DVOA, 22nd RUN, 3rd PASS
Falcons Defense: 22nd DVOA, 20th RUN, 19th PASS

This has the potential to be the most entertaining game of the week with the defending NFC Champions headed out west to play the upstart Rams and their 31 year-old rookie head coach. The Falcons had to fight their way into the dance after a sluggish start, but have experience in big situations that the Rams have not had to deal with yet. It will be a game of matchups. Julio is a boom or bust play this week going up against shadow coverage from Trumaine Johnson. Julio had a handful of huge games this season, but plenty of 5 catch, 80 yard performances as well where he did not live up to expectations. IF the Falcons are going to win this week, Julio is going need to make some big plays, but for the price, he’s out of our range for cash games, though I think he’ll be a lower owned tournament option as most owners chase the big RBs, particularly in this game as Todd Gurley is going to be where I start my team this week. He’s explosive in the run game and in catching passes, which also happens to be a real weakness for the Falcons who rank 21st in DVOA against pass catching backs. Gurley should see 25 opportunities this week and since 3x is not even a target to worry about, we’d be happy to get a low to mid 20 point performance. The only other player that I am considering here is Jared Goff. He’s had some huge games this year, but I think I will stay away as he’s had his best success against mediocre teams and in tougher games, it tends to be the Todd Gurley Show where Goff is simply a supporting character.

Bills vs Jaguars

Bills Defense: 15th DVOA, 31st RUN, 12th PASS
Jaguars Defense: 1st DVOA, 26th RUN, 1st PASS

As of now, the Bills ‘believe’ that LeSean McCoy will be playing against the Jags, but the ankle injury did not look good and I would have a hard time thinking he could be all that effective. Without a healthy McCoy, the rest of the Bills offense is not very attractive for DFS at all as the thought of Tyrod Taylor having to find a way to win the game throwing the ball seems absurd against the incredible secondary of the Jags. The one player worth considering for the Bills is Charles Clay. The Jags are only ranked 20th against the TE and the Bills will likely need to give him plenty of targets. He’s seen an uptick in targets since returning to full health with 26 over his finals three starts so I think 8-10 is a reasonable expectation. For the Jags, I’m all over Leonard Fournette this week as a must start RB. The Bills are a mess at defending the run since trading away DT Marcel Darius earlier this season. With backup TJ Yeldon only 50/50 to play at this point due to an illness, I think it’s likely that Fournette gets 25 touches this week against the Bills funnel defense. Outside of that, I am not interested in trying to figure out which Jacksonville WR will get the most action. With the return of Allen Hurns and Marquise Lee practicing on Friday, I am not certain what Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole will be able to contribute so with four decent WRs and nobody as the ‘go to’ guy, this is group only worth looking at for tournaments.

Panthers vs Saints

Panthers Defense: 7th DVOA, 6th RUN, 10th PASS
Saints Defense: 8th DVOA, 23rd RUN, 5th PASS

The final game of the weekend should be a solid DFS tilt for us with the Saints battling the Panthers. Drew Brees has not had the gaudy numbers of most years with the Saints having such a strong rushing attack, but it is now playoff time and when you want someone to win you a big game, you turn to your Hall of Fame QB to lead you there. The Saints sliced through the Panthers for 34 and 31 points in two matchups this year and if you’ve ever seen the Saints at home in the playoffs, you know that 30 points is typically the floor for them. I think Brees is in play for cash games as well as the rushing attack of Ingram and Alvin Kamara. With Gurley and Fournette, I’d love to be able to use Kamara as well, but I may just end up running out of funds so there is a good chance I drop down. At WR, Michael Thomas has a great matchup against James Bradberry and should put up a good game, although the Saints might not need a huge game from him given their rushing attack and the fact that I think they could blow Carolina off the field. Ted Ginn is a nice middle range player at WR this week for the Saints. He needs the one big play or he will be a bust, but he’s plenty capable this week as Daryl Worley is only average at best and runs a 4.6 40 vs Ginn who still has game breaking speed to get deep. For the Panthers, Cam Newton is going to need to make plays to keep the game close. If they are behind, as I envision, look for Newton to get going with his legs and to firing a lot of shorter passes to Christian McCaffrey. Devin Funchess with be locked up with rookie sensation CB Marshon Lattimore and his shoulder has been an issue for the last month so I will stay away. Greg Olson for me is a GPP play this week more so than cash, but with limited options, he’s okay for cash even in a challenging matchup. The Saints rank 6th against the TE this season.