The Daily Spin – NFL Edition Week 7

I hope that you were able to take advantage of Week 6 like I did last Sunday. Like I mentioned in the column last Saturday, I love when we get to this time of the year and get opportunities with an injury or two to plug and play some very cheap starters into lineups where you know they are going to get 20+ opportunities to touch the ball. It gives us so much more room under the salary cap to maneuver around  so that we can actually roster players that we love in great matchups instead of having to take risks on two or three players that we are not so excited about. Each week presents its own puzzle. Some weeks, like last, the pieces come together very early through pricing that takes place before a player performs well on a Monday game in heavier role than expected after an injury, or when a trade takes place helping to clarify the roles of certain players going forward. This week is no different. While the puzzle took a little longer to put together and there are still a couple of great opportunities that could present themselves before lineup lock tomorrow before kickoff, after putting in a lot of extra time last night and this morning on doing some very thorough research, I think the game plan is starting to make itself more clear.

Before we move into the picks for Week 7, lets take a minute to look back at Week 6 to see where things went right. If you missed out on cashing, it is always important to be able to look back at your process from the previous week to see if it was sound. Obviously, things are going to happen every week that are unexpected. Some players are going to perform well above their price while others going to struggle. We are not looking back at a win or a loss in order to pat ourselves on the back or to complain about getting lucky or unlucky. What we want to analyze more than anything else is in how we broke down each game and how we projected our players would be utilized within the game plan. If we did well in anticipating both the flow of the game as well as how our players fit into the game, then at the end of the week, win or lose, we have to feel good about the process. It’s those instances where we were dead wrong about one or the other that we need to go look back at to reexamine where we can improve in the weeks ahead.

The key to winning last week was in taking advantage of mispricings at the running back position. When the salaries were released on Sunday night, they reasonably reflected the value of the players for the week ahead, but as always, when players in the Monday night game get priced for the following week prior to their game, it always presents an opportunity for value either by way of injury or just in a change of role for a particular player. Going into the Monday night game with the Bears and Vikings, Latavius Murray was looked at as the starter and primary back for the Vikings with Jerrick McKinnon playing the role of the change of pace and pass catching back. While Murray is still technically the starter, McKinnon is featured more in terms of carries and still remains the primary pass catching back as well. This was established against the Bears, but with his price being set at $4,100 for the Packers game before he took the field against Chicago, it gave us a chance to pounce. As was the case against the Bears, McKinnon was the lead back for the Vikes last Sunday and took advantage of the opportunity to post over 100 yards of total offense as well as two touchdowns. He far exceeded our projections and got my team off to a great start.

The other key play that I made last week was to plug in Mark Ingram at $4,400 into the other RB position. The Saints wisely parted ways with Adrian Peterson last week in a move that was truly a win-win for everyone involved. Adrian was a terrible fit in New Orleans and their signing of him made absolutely no sense at any point given that he is a between the tackles back that can’t play three downs due issues with pass blocking and problems catching the ball. He’s also the type of back that needs 20+ carries per game in order to get into a rhythm. He’s the type of player who teams can stop many times, but who can then suddenly rip off a 40 yard carry. That’s tougher to do when you limit him to eight carries in a game as Adrian will get frustrated if he feels he can contribute and is not allowed the chance to do so. Shipping him off to the Cards helped to clarify the future of the RB situation in New Orleans. It places Ingram in the primary role moving forward and also helps to get some additional touches for the explosive Alvin Kamara who looks like a very promising young rookie that is handling the change of pace role well out of the backfield. Overall, this should translate to four to five more carries per game for Ingram and two to four extra touches per game for Kamara. Yes, Adrian had an amazing game for the Cards so that obviously brings him into fantasy relevance again, but he was never going to be in that position in New Orleans as long as Ingram was healthy. Using Ingram also paid off big time as he had over 100 total yards from scrimmage and also scored twice. Pairing McKinnon and Ingram set the table for the rest of the roster and helped to bring me an easy win for the week.

As for the rest of my team, I started it with a fairly standard type of stack as Houston was hosting the Browns and DeShaun Watson was still underpriced given his recent performances as well as the matchup. I paired him with his favorite target in DeAndre Hopkins who has been looking at double digit targets each game all season and who was very heavily owned, making a potential fade a bigger risk than I would want to take given his upside. The play worked out okay with Watson putting together a nice game, but Hopkins being somewhat held in check even with a late TD. The Browns did not do their part at all to put up points against a depleted defense which curbed the upside for Watson as the Texans did not need to do much while sitting on a huge lead in the second half. The other observation worth nothing here is that the Browns have a legit #1 corner in Jason McCourty who right now is graded as the top ranked cornerback in the league, via Pro Football Focus. Now, that’s not to say he is the best in the league, but that’s impressive even on a bad team like the Browns and he’s going to end up shadowing a lot of top receivers throughout the rest of the season. I will be more careful in trying to avoid him with my receiver matchups for the rest of the year.

My other running back was an easy pick for me in Leonard Fournette at home against a Rams defense that has been dominated by opposing backs all season long in both the run and pass. My decision was quickly validated when he ripped off a 75 yard touchdown run on his first carry and then cruised to solid overall performance that would have been even better had he not twisted his ankle and left the game in the second half. While the injury takes him off my radar this week (he’s a gamtime decision tomorrow), he’s going to be a workhorse for the Jags and should continue to see 25 opportunities per game all season as the Jags do all they can to keep the ball out of the hands of Blake Bortles.

At receiver, another key injury for the Vikings led to fairly easy plug and play situation with Adam Thielen against the Packers. Without Diggs, Thielen is the clear #1 option in Minnesota and in going up against a bad and banged up secondary, he easily reached value and could have done even more damage had the Vikings not been siting on a double digit lead throughout the 4th quarter. The former undrafted, Detroit Lakes native is no longer just a feel good story, but a true budding star who should easily eclipse 1000 receiving yards this season.

My other wideout was the always target rich, Pierre Garcon. My stomach sank when the 49ers elected to pull Brian Hoyer in the first half down 17 points in favor of CJ Beathard as you never really know what you are going to get out of a rookie QB, particularly in his first significant action in the NFL, but he did work to get the ball to Garcon in targeting him 12 times. The stat line was not terribly pretty, but five catches for 55 yards is not awful either and certainly would not be considered a bust. If we can get 12 targets for a receiver in a given week, we’ll take it every time.

A tight end, we paid down as usual and it worked out for us with Zach Miller. The tight end position is always a little bit of a frustrating spot as you are usually working with limited and short range targets. While Miller only had a few balls thrown his way, he managed to be in the end zone for one which was exactly what we needed. After some bad luck the week prior in taking a zero from the very talented Evan Engram, we were on fortune’s good side this week in getting the points we needed.

On defense, I was back and forth all weekend between the Ravens and Falcons. I really wanted to play the Ravens at home against a rookie QB making his first start on the road, but in the end, I needed that last $200 for another roster spot and so felt okay using the Falcons at home against what had been a very inefficient Dolphins offense this season, with turnover prone, Jay Cutler at the helm. When the Falcons went up 17-0 at the half, it looked like we were in great shape. The Dolphins were going to have to throw more which should have led to more opportunities for sacks and interceptions. Unfortunately, the Falcons laid down at home yet again to team they should have beaten and they blew the game in embarrassing fashion. The defense only posted a few points, but fortunately, it did not come back to haunt me with the way that the rest of the team performed.

 

QB	Deshaun Watson	24.3
RB	Mark Ingram	34
RB	Jerrick McKinnon	25.9
WR	Pierre Garcon	10.5
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	9.9
WR	Adam Thielen	18.7
TE	Zach Miller	10.5
FLEX	Leaonard Fournette	24.8
DEF	Falcons	3
		161.6

 

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