The Daily Spin – NFL Edition – Week 5

The NFL continues to be the most unpredictable of the major professional sports leagues week to week in terms of trying to predict the outcomes of games. I was patting myself on the back after the second week of the season as I had a very nice 9-5 mark going in the Super 7 contest, with just a couple of plays away from being 12-2. I thought, if this is how I do the first two weeks of the season when our information is still a little on the incomplete side about teams, imagine how well I will do the rest of the season. Well, I never imagined posting back to back 1-6 weeks to fall to 11-17 and am now virtually dead in the contest.

Last week, we saw the seemingly lifeless Panthers, who had been crushed at home the week prior against the Saints (who New England had demolished in New Orleans in Week 2) and lost their best offensive weapon in Greg Olson, go on the road and beat the Pats, who for the second week in a row looked awful on defense. We saw the Rams go into Dallas and put up what felt like 100 field goals on their way to winning a game nobody would have given them a shot to win just a season ago. If we learned anything there, it is that Jeff Fisher truly is one of the worst coaches out there as Jared Goff and Todd Gurley, two players written off for dead by most in the fantasy world, have not only become fantasy relevant again, but have been dominant statistically to start the season. We also witnessed the Buffalo Bills go on the road to defeat the Atlanta Falcons. Now, this would be surprising any time, but what makes it even more so is the for the most part, LeSean McCoy was held in check and it was again a strong effort from the Bills defense that made the difference in slowing down the Atlanta arsenal. Every week there are games like the three above that make me stop and shake my head and think, what did we all miss on this one?

When things like the events above take place, be happy that you are a DFS player who takes the time to do the work each week. Many people are going to be discouraged, but these sorts of upsets and misses are what keep the fantasy game exciting. If everything went exactly and according to projections each week, most of us would eventually get wiped out by the algorithms of the best and brightest players as they narrowed down the outcomes to such a precise measure that they always had the optimal play in place every week. We’re fortunate as players who rely on both the projections as well as the eyeball test when drafting our lineups each week. My edge that I pass on to you is that I take in almost every second of every game each week and then work on our model not just to project a target based on past results, but on actual player usage expected, the matchups involved and the trends towards who is working their way into the scheme for each team. This early part of the season tends to be where we do our best work against the strict, play by the model types as it typically takes some time for them to really lock in during the first part of the year.

In looking back at last week’s result, I am continuing to play one cash game roster per week in order to make the grading process as transparent and fair as possible. It was another winning week for me as the performances of three players: Zeke Elliott, DeAndre Hopkins and Bilal Powell carried me to victory. Zeke was a pretty easy play and very heavily owned in cash games. He’s nearly matchup proof (except for Denver on the road…) and receives about 90% of the volume out of the backfield and is working his way nicely into the passing attack. He was all over the field against the Rams and put up great numbers to nobody’s surprise. DeAndre Hopkins was another no brainer play last week. He was far too cheap at $6,400 for a WR who we knew would be getting a ton of targets against a poor Titans secondary. The emergence of Deshaun Watson really put it over the top and we got the breakout performance I expected. I was really surprised when I opened my lineup after kickoff last weekend and saw that Bilal Powell was not chalkier than he was, coming in at only around 13% ownership which made me think I must have missed something that other sharps had picked up before the games started. I think other owners must have talked themselves out of using Powell as the Jets did mention that Elijiah McGuire would get some work as well. Just as I expected, Powell had huge volume with 21 carries and 5 targets which he converted into 190 total yards and a touchdown. At just $4,600 this was the key player who unlocked value for the rest of the lineup.

The rest of the team was a little bit rough, but survived the week. Trevor Siemian continues to befuddle me as a QB. He played so well in his first two games at home and had a plum matchup against the Raiders last week. He marched right down the field on Denver’s first drive and finished it with a TD pass which made me think he was ready for a big day. Unfortunately, he only put up about 3-4 fantasy points the rest of the day after that first drive as Denver could not get its offense in gear at all and had to hang on against EJ Manual, who nearly won the game with a late comeback.

Dalvin Cook broke my heart for a couple of reasons last week. He looked like he was easily on his way to another big day against the Lions and had amassed over 13 fantasy points going into the second half of the game. Then suddenly, at the end of a 10 yard run, his leg buckled, he looked like he got hit by lightning, he crumpled to the turf an threw the ball into the air in near shock. I instantly knew his season was over. Amusingly enough, someone on Twitter doubted my initial take after Cook limped off the field and made a snarky reply. When I told him what was about to happen and then had it confirmed, he elected to block me which gave me a good laugh. Fortunately, he did at least give us a 2x effort so it wasn’t terrible, but it really could have been 4x had he remained healthy. It also probably would’ve led to a Vikings win and kept their season alive. It’s dead now, so my focus is almost entirely on DFS, which should be beneficial for our wallets.

Larry Fitzgerald and Golden Tate were undercover for most of their respective games on Sunday. It took an overtime TD for Larry to salvage his game and I don’t think Tate was targeted one time in the second half against the Vikings so we should just stop playing offensive players against them at this point even if a year ago in Minnesota, he was featured much more. The Lions knew that without Cook in there that Case Keenum was not going to beat them so they went to a very conservative game plan and just made sure they did not turn the ball over or give the Vikes anything easy.

Finally, my TE, Evan Engram, continued to do exactly what was needed in snagging six passes for over 60 yards and easily exceeded value. He’s a big, strong, athletic player, but has the speed of a wideout. He is going to be a star in this league before long, but for now, we’re still able to lock him in at a rookie price although that is beginning to change this week.

On defense, I elected to keep it safe and went with the Bengals on the road against the Browns. The play worked out fine. It was frustrating that the Browns got in the end zone late during garbage time to ruin the shutout, but they did their job and put up eight points so it was a decent effort in a week where we did not have many obvious options on the board.

Overall, here is how my winning lineup looked for Week 4:

Trevor Siemian	5200	11.26
Zeke Elliott	8200	29.9
Dalvin Cook	6500	13.4
DeAndre Hopkins	6400	29.7
Golden Tate	6300	6.1
Larry Fitzgeralnd	6100	13.2
Evan Engram	3000	12.2
Bilal Powell	4600	32
Bengals	3500	8
		155.76

 

PLAYER POOL

QB

QB	DK	FD
Asron Rodgers	8100	9500
Rusell Wilson	7100	8000
Dak Prescott	6800	7700
Eli Manning	6100	7000
Brian Hoyer	4700	6500
Josh McCown	4500	6800

 

We have options again this week at the QB position. Aaron Rodgers has to be considered this week going on the road to Dallas in what is easily expected to be the highest scoring game of the week. What makes him a more attractive option than normal is the fact that the Packers are banged up at running back. Ty Montgomery broke some ribs last week against the Bears and although he is pushing to make a quick return, it’s not happening this week. In his absence, Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones will be filling in. Williams hurt his knee last week and many expected him to be limited, but now is not on the injury report so guessing at who gets the work there is going to be tough. In any case, Rodgers will probably put the ball in the air close to 50 times this game so I think that 3x is his floor. His price point is where things get tricky. With the bye weeks here and the pricing being tight on DK (not so much for FD), it probably makes sense to drop down to save some funds, but I can’t argue with locking in Rodgers.

Russell Wilson will be in the spotlight this week in a game that will determine who the favorite will be to win the NFC West this season against the Rams….yes, the Rams. While I thought the Rams would be better with a new coach…really any other coach, I did not see them progressing quite so fast. Russell Wilson will have his work cut out for him on Sunday. I think the onus will be on Russell to get it done if the Seahawks want to have any chance to win. Chris Carson is done for the season and CJ Prosise is out this week leaving the Hawks in a committee situation at running back with Thomas Rawls expected to take the lead…or so we’re told. The problem is that the Seahawks are a mess up front and the offensive line is not a good unit. Wilson is going to have to win this one with his arm and legs and I think he will post another big day in terms of fantasy points as he has the last two weeks. The Rams have give up a ton of fantasy points to QB’s the last three weeks so I think Wilson hits value with the potential for a high ceiling.

Dak Prescott has become a model of consistency for fantasy QB’s this season. He’s a near lock for 250 yards passing, 2 TD’s and 25 yards rushing. That’s 20.5 points right there and it does not get much better than going up against the soft Green Bay secondary in a high point total game this week. While Zeke will get his touches, I expect this to be a breakout week for Dez Bryant and if the Packers do their job (unlike their visit to Atlanta), the pace will be fast with both teams pushing for points. You can start Dak in cash almost every week this season as a great value play.

I dislike watching Eli Manning just as much as the next guy, but the last two weeks have seen a big improvement on the road against the Eagles and Bucs. With not much of a running game and lots of weapons through the air, Eli will be relied on all season more so than QB’s from other teams. He has a nice matchup this week against a winless Charger team that is travelling across the country which never works out well for teams going from the west coast to the east coast. Typically, the Chargers have two lockdown corners, but Jason Verrett is on the IR already leaving Casey Hayward to defend the top threat each week. He’ll be shadowing Odell Beckham this week, but the Giants have enough other options to spread the ball around so that Eli should have a nice high floor for the week. I’d have a hard time believing he’d do anything less than 275 through the air with two TD passes.

If the tight pricing is too much of an issue for you at other positions, perhaps you would like to go dumpster diving in the scrub bin this week. It’s never a fun place to be, but as long as you do not get completely skunked, it can open up a lot of options at other positions. Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown each have great matchups this week in games against below average defenses that are both winnable road games. Hoyer has been bad so far this season, by any metric, but he gets a shot this week against a Colts defense that has made every opposing QB they’ve faced look like a star. This game has sneaky shootout potential and all we need is 225 yards passing and a TD to get us a decent floor. McCown is in the same boat against his former team, the Browns, I would call this a revenge game except that half the games McCown plays in are revenge games given his long journey around the league primarily as a backup QB. The Browns are ranked near the bottom of the league in all relevant stat categories related to passing so even with limited weapons, McCown should be able to deliver value for those adventurous enough to take the risk.

 

RB

RB	DK	FD
LeVeon Bell	9500	9500
Zeke Elliott	8800	8900
Todd Gurley	8000	7800
Leonard Fournette	7000	7600
Carlos Hyde	6900	7200
Duke Johnson	4900	6000
Andre Ellington	4600	5400
Frank Gore	4400	6000
Wayne Gallman	3900	5200

 

It is going to be a little tricky to fit Lev Bell into cash lineups at $9,500, but he has a great chance to pay off his salary this week against Jacksonville at home. The Jags are very tough against the pass with a pair of stud corners, but they get killed against the run as the Jets ate them up with the likes of Bilal Powell and Elijiah McGuire. Imagine what will happen against a team where almost all of the volume will go through one back. It’s a great spot for Bell, but it is on the pricey side this week, particularly on DK.

As I mentioned above, Zeke is in a great spot at home against the Packers in the game featuring the highest point total of the week. Outside of the Broncos game, he’s had at least 26 opportunities (carries plus targets) per game this season and that will continue this week. While the Cowboys have not been quite as strong up front, the Packers are not going to be able to get as aggressive as would be necessary to stop Elliott give their extreme problems in the secondary, where they’ll be forced respect the ability of Dak and Dez. Zeke is also getting pricey, but you can jam him and Bell together in FanDuel without having to sacrifice much. It’s a little tougher on DK, but I can’t imagine not having at least one of these two in my lineups this week.

Speaking of matchup proof, Todd Gurley has become an elite fantasy running back this season after looking like he might be a bust during his sophomore campaign. The Rams have done well to work Gurley into the passing game which is really where his value has taken off. In the first game of the season, he had 20 opportunities, but in the last three games, he’s had no fewer than…..wait for it….31!!! Going up against the Seahawks is no easy challenge, but if the Rams are going to get it down, it is going to have to be with Gurley as the Seahawks are below average against the run while still possessing one of the better secondaries in the league.

Through four games, this NFL rookie running back class is just as good as advertised. After years of failure at the running back position, it looks like the Jags finally have a guy who’s more than just a JAG (Just A Guy). The Jags will need him to continue to carry the load as Blake Bortles has proven to be little more than a garbage time scoring machine who will spend the first three quarters of a game turning the ball over if it is kept in his hands. The Jags only shot against the Steelers this week will be to control the ball and the clock and they can only do that by giving Fournette a huge workload. He has had no fewer than 19 opportunities in his four starts this season and has approached 30 in two of his four starts. The Steelers have not been great against the run this season so Fournette should have a good shot a delivering value again this week.

Rounding out the upper tier of running backs this week is Carlos Hyde who is on the road to face the Colts in what should be another great matchup for him. He’s managed to avoid injuries this season (no small task for Hyde) and he’s turned into a 20-25 opportunities per game back for the 49ers. The Colts have been mediocre against the run this season and outside of Todd Gurley, they’ve faced nobody of substantial talent. Hyde is in a great spot this week in what should be a close game, although as a featured back, even if the Colts get ahead, it shouldn’t diminish Hyde’s role as he’s had 4-6 targets in every game this season.

If we are going to pay down, which we will have to do for at least one spot, there are four players worth considering. Frank Gore keeps popping up for me as a potential play this week although it’s like swallowing bad cough medicine to use him in any format. I can stomach using him this week as I think this will be a close game which should take his touches from the 12-15 range and into the 18-20 range for the week again his old teams. When you use Gore, his floor is also his ceiling, but he’s posted now fewer than 10.6 points in any game this season so even if he doesn’t give us value, he probably will not miss by much.

Duke Johnson and Andre Ellington both have similar roles for their respective offenses this week. Isaiah Crowell has been a disappointment so far this season and Cleveland has worked to get the ball to Johnson in the passing game to open up the field. He’ll need to haul in 5-6 passes and add a few yards on the ground, but he’s been effective this season so if the Browns can’t get the run going early, I expect them to turn back to Johnson to move the ball.

The Cardinals have yet to find an effective replacement for David Johnson, but seem to be content to allow Chris Johnson to handle most of the work on the ground while Andre Ellington has picked up a prominent role in the passing game as his targets have increased every week and peaked at 14 last week. There is a good chance that they will be playing from behind against the Eagles on the road who are stout up front on defense which should lead to another big week where Ellington will get plenty of opportunities to touch the ball.

Finally, the we may take a look at Wayne Gallman of the Giants as a cheap punt play for cash games. Paul Perkins is out this week, Orleans Darkwa is a little banged up and Shane Vereen is still more of a third down back. Gallman looked good when given the chance to play last week so I think he’ll get the first crack this week, but if he does not start fast, this will turn into a rotation where none of the backs do much to produce. At $3,900, he’s worth a look, but I think he’s a low end cash play given that there is some risk on touches.

*UPDATE* Wendell Smallwood is likely out tomorrow for the Eagles versus the Cardinals. This elevate LeGarrette Blount to a low end cash game play at $4,200 as he should see the bulk of the action and should get called upon often if the Eagles are ahead as expected by the implied point totals. He’s not a big part of the passing attack which tends to limit his upside and he’s touchdown dependent most weeks, but he probably won’t hurt you badly even if he does not get into the end zone.

 

WR

WR	DK	FD
Jordy Nelson	8100	8600
Randall Cobb	6700	6600
DeVante Parker	6600	6100
Dez Bryant	6500	7800
Golden Tate	6300	6700
Pierre Garcon	6100	6700
TY Hilton	6000	7300
Jarvis Landry	5800	6600
Jaron Brown	4500	4500

 

I’ve discussed the Packers/Cowboys game at length for several players already so it is no surprise the Mr. Touchdown himself gets a mention. In four games, Nelson has found the end zone five times and this was accomplished while essentially missing the game against the Falcons after injuring his thigh in the opening minutes of the game. The Cowboys have given up plenty of yardage through the air this season against some marginal QB’s so going against one of the elites will not be easy. With DeVante Adams still in concussion protocol, that should give Nelson and Cobb a slight boost although Geronimo Allison has been good in spot duty on previous occasions. Cobb gives us some salary savings which makes him a little easier to roster. *UPDATE* Davante Adams made the trip with Green Bay to Dallas and is expected to suit up tomorrow. He’s still listed as questionable on the injury report, but it appears he will now play. I’m not sure what his role will be with the offense which makes him less of a cash game consideration, but given that most owners will assume him downgraded or out, he should be considered for GPP lineups.

I am close to giving up on the Dolphins, but want to give them one more shot at home before I close the book completely on Jay Cutler and this island of misfit toys. The London Effect strikes different teams in different ways so I am not going to panic. The Dolphins are the last team in the league to play a true home game and I suspect that it will go a long way towards improving their play. They get a great matchup this week against the Titans who have been through the air the last two games against the Seahawks and Texans. Parker has the better matchup against Brice McClain as McClain grades out poorly so far this season. Landry will see a lot of Logan Ryan, but he runs such short routes that it’s tough to see him not catching at least 6-7 short passes on the low end to give him a decent floor as well.

Dez Bryant is a lock for my cash lineup this week at $6,500. He caught five passes for 98 yards last week and was one catch away from hitting value by going over 100 yards, but he is going to get it done this week against the Packers who he lit up in the playoffs at home last season with 9 catches for 132 yards and 2 TD’s. The Packers are weak in their secondary and Devon House is out so they are thin in terms of depth as well. This will be a high scoring game and Dez finally has a matchup that can be exploited.

Golden Tate let us down last week in Minnesota against a defense that took him out of the game, but things should improve this week as he’s alternated games where he’s been involved in the offense and then taken away. He’s back at home this week and he is up against Captain Munnerlyn, the same guy he wrecked up in Minnesota last season. Munnerlyn is nearing the end of his career and his grades are slipping. Yes, Amir Abdullah played well as the featured guy in the offense a week ago, but the Panthers are tough up front so Detroit will have a difficult time grinding out yardage on the ground. They shouldn’t want to do that when they can easily move it through the air by getting Tate involved. He’s going to get 10 targets this week so he should have a great shot at being productive this week.

I hate that I am writing up so many players from the Colts/49ers game this week, but they are each bad enough so that they can beat up the other defense for a lot of fantasy points. That said, TY Hilton and Pierre Garcon are both viable plays this week. Garcon has had two good matchups this season and two terrible matchups where he was covered by All-Pro corners. In the two games where he faced marginal competition, has amassed 20 targets, 13 catches and 223 yards. Rashaan Melvin has graded out well so far this season, but Garcon lines up all over so he should have plenty of chances to make plays. TY Hilton is in the same boat as Garcon. When he finally had a great matchup against the Browns, he tore them apart, but like Garcon, he’s faced the Cardinals and Seahawks which hasn’t been great for him and his third string starting QB.  He’s up against some of the worst CB’s in the league this week which means that he should have a good shot at the type of big play that can give you value with one catch.

Finally, our punt play this week is Jaron Brown. I will be watching the injury reports closely, but Browan (Jaron) has picked up a lot of snaps and targets given the recent injuries to John Brown and JJ Nelson, both of whom are considered questionable at the time of writing. In their absence, Jaron has looked great and has 29 targets in the three games, a significant bump. The Eagles are aggressive up from and the and the Cards are going to have to keep the ball in the air if they hope to have a chance. Chis Johnson handles the ball on the ground, but outside of that, this is a pass happy team and Jaron should continue to excel.

TE

TE	DK	FD
Zach Ertz	6200	6600
Charles Clay	4800	5700
Evan Engram	4000	5400
Austin Sefarian Jenkins	3500	5500

 

I miss the days when Zach Ertz was a cheap TE that could be plugged in for under $4k with a dependable number of targets. Over the first four games of the season, he’s received 8-10 targets per game and has established a comfortable floor from week to week. His price has risen considerably since Week 1, but he has a nice matchup this week against the Cardinals. The Cards have a tough secondary so I would look for Wentz to keep Ertz involved on shot and underneath routes throughout the day.

Charles Clay seems to be the best receiving option available to the Bills this season. In three of four games this season, Clay has scored at least 15 fantasy points while averaging 6-8 targets. He was banged up going into the game against the Panthers on the road and that was also a tougher matchup. With Jordan Matthews out and a ragtag group of receivers available, Clay has to be the top option through the air for the Bills this week and probably for much of the season.

I’ve been an Evan Engram fan all season and it is not going away now. He’s big and very athletic with the speed of a wide receiver. The Giants have worked the rookie into the offense immediately and he’s had little trouble delivering value on a weekly basis. With Casey Hayward challenging ODB this week, the Giants will need to work other options to move the ball. His share of targets has been rising all season and I project that within a year or two, he will be among the elite tight ends in the league if not immediately.

Austin Sefarian Jenkins is a player we’ve rarely considered in these pages before, but he’s in a great spot this week against a Cleveland team that is regularly terrible in defending against tight ends. They’ve been torched by mediocre tight ends this season and even gave up two TD’s to backup TE Tyler Kroft a week ago. With few great options at receiver, ASJ should see plenty of targets this week and we get him for a great price on DK.

 

DEF

DEF	DK	FD
Steelers	3900	4800
Eagles	3100	4600
Ravens	2900	4500
Bills	2600	4600

 

The Steelers are at home against Blake Bortles who will have to throw ball once the Jags fall behind. Bad things happen when Bortles drop back to pass which is great for us. They are a much better option on FD as their price is on the high side for DK and will take some work to fit into lineups.

The Eagles are aggressive up front on defense with a tough front seven and will pressure the old and slow Carson Palmer. Teams travelling from the west coast to the east coast usually struggle to find their rhythm and with no real rushing attack to speak of, the Eagles will pin their ears back to go after Palmer which should lead to some sacks and turnovers.

The Ravens travel to Oakland this week and while I usually do not like to play a defense on the road, the Raiders are without starting QB David Carr which means they will have to turn to EJ Manual who was not even good enough to remain a backup with the Bills. I expect EJ to turn the ball over a couple of times in a low scoring game giving the Ravens a nice floor.

The Bills are the bargain of the week going on the road to play the Bengals on Sunday. They’ve been very consistent this season and have held their own even against some tough offenses on the road. They’ve posted no fewer than 8 points in each of their four games this season and they are incredibly cheap this week, particularly on DK. In a week where we’ll need to conserve salary, they are a great option.