The Daily Spin – NFL Divisional Playoff Edition

Welcome to the Elite 8 of the NFL Playoffs. If you are anything like me, you cannot wait for these last few hours to tick by so the games can get moving. I have a lot invested financially and emotionally in this year’s playoffs with the Vikings in position to crush me and others again in what could potentially be the most heartbreaking of  fashion with the Super Bowl set to take place in their new stadium in six weeks. The games this week provide us with a mixture of interesting matchups with top defenses set to do battle against potent offenses. While there are those who do not enjoy a good defensive struggle, I rather enjoy them and can still find ways to appreciate a good, hard hitting 10-3 game, even if some of the performances on the offensive side of the ball are a little lacking. I always like watching games where it feels like even a single mistake can turn the game one way or the other.

Last week we had a few of those games where just a play here or there or a single mistake or two were all the difference in the world. In terms of DFS, it played out that way as well, literally coming down to the final play of the last game to determine my fate. The last sack of Cam Newtown was just enough to push me one position below the cash line for the $25 double up game I was in, but I was fortunate enough to remain above the line for my games at $100 and above. It looked like an easy win until very late in the final game when all hell broke loose. Michael Thomas caught about a 45 yard pass to put him over 100 yards, followed up by an Alvin Kamara rushing TD, followed by a short pass from Newton to McCaffrey that turned into a 50+ yard TD. All in all, an unsatisfying tie, but I was happy to hang on to some of my winnings. There are not a lot of ways to really differentiate your roster in the playoffs so it comes down to avoiding mistakes and not getting too cute with some of the cheaper players where you end up totally guessing on how many opportunities they will get.

 

Falcons vs Eagles

Falcons – 22nd Def DVOA, 20th vs the run, 19th vs the pass, 14th vs the TE, 21st vs pass catching RBs
Eagles – 5th Def DVOA, 3rd vs the run, 7th vs the pass, 17th vs the TE, 10th vs pass catching RBs

The Eagles are really going over the top playing the disrespected card this week as the Falcons come into Philly as a 3 point favorite against the top seed in the NFC. It marks the first time a 6 seed has ever been favored over a 1, but obviously with good reason as the Eagles looked lost without Carson Wentz the last few weeks and were fortunate that the schedule was soft. I’m not going to target too much from this game. Julio Jones is always in play and frankly, he’ll have to see a lot of volume if the Falcons expect to win this one and I think 10-12 targets is a reasonable starting point to work from. The mix of backs for the Falcons will keep me away from either Freeman or Coleman, although Coleman is cheap enough so that I might lean his direction. On the Eagles side of the ball, I do not trust Nick Foles from what I have seen. I expect the Eagles to try to run the ball and I think this is the moment we finally see Jay Ajayi play the featured roll. At his price, I am comfortable with the risk. If you are not paying up this week for Gronk, I think Zach Ertz is a solid play. If Foles fails to open things up on offense, I could see him using Ertz on a lot of short routes. The Atlanta secondary is not ranked all that highly on the season, but they’ve been playing much better down the stretch with Desmond Trufant leading the way, but I do expect the Eagles to get Nelson Agholor involved against Brian Poole who has been up and down this year. You can save funds here in this game by punting on defense as well with the Eagles. Their front seven is fast and aggressive and even in games where they haven’t been at their best, they’ve still almost always put up points.

Titans vs Patriots

Titans – 22nd Def DVOA, 20th vs the run, 19th vs the pass, 14th vs the TE, 21st vs pass catching RBs
Patriots – 31st Def DVOA, 30th vs the run, 21st vs the pass, 8th vs the TE, 22nd vs pass catching RBs

Top Plays – Tom Brady looks like the automatic play this week at QB going against the Titans who function as a funnel defense. Kareem Hunt was largely ineffective on the ground, but Alex Smith was having a field day through the air against their secondary until Travis Kelce suffered a concussion and was forced to leave the game after a dominating first half. I expect the Pats to do their best to establish the run, but they are not the type of team that will keep banging their head against the wall. I expect a lot of action out of Gronk who is pricey, but worth paying up for. I am also intrigued by the return of Chris Hogan. Adoree Jackson has been a solid corner for the Titans this season and improved from the start of the year and Logan Ryan has been good in the slot so I think Brady will get Hogan right back into the mix. On the other side of the ball, I expect the Titans to be behind this game, potentially by a lot which will have them throwing the ball often even if the best part of their offense is Derrick Henry who was fantastic for us last week. Henry is a great GPP play this week, but I am unsure about volume which scares me for cash, especially with Lev Bell out there who will know will get the touches. Given that the Titans will be throwing, I think you should be looking to punt on at least one pass catcher for the Titans. Delanie Walker is the most reliable of the group and I don’t even mind using him as a flex and stacking him with Gronk as he has predictable volume. Corey Davis and Eric Decker each offer some nice salary cap this week. Davis received the bulk of the targets among the two last week, but Decker ended up catching a late TD to the cheers of around 50% of owners. Decker has the more favorable matchup against Eric Rowe this week who is the lowest rated CB left in the playoffs.

Jags vs Steelers

Jags – 1st Def DVOA, 26th vs the run, 1st vs the pass, 20th vs the TE, 15th vs pass catching RBs
Steelers – 9th Def DVOA, 18th vs the run, 8th vs the pass, 1st vs the TE, 23rd vs pass catching RBs

This is going to be a very tough game for the Steelers who have their eyes on a rematch with the Patriots next weekend. I doubt they will be overlooking the Jags after they  were stomped 30-9 on their home turf back in October. It’s hard to imagine this game being anything like the last one as Roethlisberger was picked off five times and had two returned for TDs. If you are playing GPP events this week, Antonio Brown is the play as he is going to get his targets, even with the talented Jags secondary out to try to stop him. He had 10 catches on 19 targets and 157 yards the first time around. He’s coming back from an injury, which will keep me from considering him in cash games. Lev Bell should be the highest owned RB this week as the Steelers will need to get him a lot of opportunities if they hope to advance. LeSean McCoy had no problem on the ground and catching passes out of the backfield. That has to be the blueprint for beating the Jags; be methodical and do not make mistakes. Outside of Bell and Brown, the only other consideration for me are the Steelers for defense. Blake Bortles looked awful last week throwing the ball and I do not see him winning this game with his legs. This should be a low scoring game and Bortles should give away the ball at least twince.

Saints vs Vikings

Saints – 8th Def DVOA, 23rd vs the run, 5th vs the pass, 6th vs the TE, 12th vs pass catching RBs
Vikings – 2nd Def DVOA, 5th vs the run, 4th vs the pass, 2nd vs the TE, 1st vs pass catching RBs

Finally, we have the featured game of the weekend between the Vikings and Saints on Sunday. This is a rematch of the Week 1 tilt that the Vikings won handily, 29-19 when the Saints were still busy trying to find time for three RBs each week. The key to the game for the Vikings is going to be to exploit the middle of the field the way the Panthers did a week ago when Cam Newton threw for over 300 yards to a receiver corp that included a badly injured Devin Funchess and a less than 100% Greg Olson. Olson and Christian McCaffrey did most of the damage over the middle as the Saints are missing linebackker AJ Klein and safety Kenny Vaccaro. While rookie, Marshon Lattimore should be able to neutralize Stefon Diggs on the outside, Adam Thielen and Jerrick McKinnon should be able to work the middle of the field. If Kyle Rudolph is healthy after injuring his ankle a month ago, he could also be in line for a big day, although I am not totally certain if the ankle is fully 100%. For the Saints, their running game is tough to call, but I do favor Alvin Kamara if you can pay up. Michael Thomas will be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes which will make him tough to play and Mark Ingram will face tough sledding in the middle. The Saints best hope is to get Kamara into space to see if he can make some plays. Even here, I would only use him in tournaments. Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks and Harrison Smith are fast, aggressive and strong tacklers so he is big play capable, but he’ll need them this week to get the points he needs to make value. If you don’t pay up for Brady, I think Drew Brees is in play this week again. If Vegas is correct and the Vikings are ahead, the Saints could end up having to keep the ball in the air late in the game and with the playoff pedigree of Brees, I am expecting 275 yards and 2 TDs.